wkd Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well that went downhill quickly. EPS are an inland low, 6z GEFS are a Cleveland snow bomb. Who the heck would have thought that the Ukie might be leading the way? I realize it is several days out still but rarely do these cutter/inside runner situations reverse themselves. Hoping Im wrong. Sorry I wanted you to start this thread. I know it was against your better judgement. This one sure doesn't look good at this point but there is still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 The differences at 500mb between 6z gfs vs 12z gfs are laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 And at the surface the gfs translates to a 990mb low in Ohio at 6z vs a 1004mb low about 75 miles East of the DelMarVa at 12z with a trailing wave in SE Texas. Still lacking the cold air either way you slice it this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The more northern short wave on the 12Z gfs plays a more dominant role. There was much less phasing than on the 6Z, Although the outcome wasn't good due to the lack of cold air at least the surface low was further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Let's be real this is a garbage set up. Even with a good track we lack cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 stick a fork in this threat, there's no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 stick a fork in this threat, there's no cold air to work with.Its funny how yesterday things were pointing towards a colder setup. Fast forward 18 hours or so and no cold air to be found. However, something tells me we still aren't 100% finished with this system, especially N and W of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Its funny how yesterday things were pointing towards a colder setup. Fast forward 18 hours or so and no cold air to be found. However, something tells me we still aren't 100% finished with this system, especially N and W of I95. Maybe 50-75-100 miles N and W ...maybe. Not the local burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Maybe 50-75-100 miles N and W ...maybe. Not the local burbs.I could definitely see this scenario. Wondering now if we should bail on the first wave on Tuesday and start pulling for the followup wave IF we can get some cold air established?? This late-season needle threading rooting for the perfect scenario hardly ever works out and we are starting to feel the late winter difficulties in getting a significant snow event in the big cities. Sure, there are always renegade March storms, but we are starting to run out of time overall. I hope those folks seeing this late Feb-mid March pattern with favorable snow threats are right, but again, snow will be getting harder and harder to come by exponentially as we continue pressing forward. If not for the January storm, this would have been an absolutely dreadful winter season in terms of snowfall. Here's hoping the Euro/EPS can keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 GEPS arent terrible next week fwiw. Has the 2-wave scenario and both are far enough off the coast for snow. We are farther now from a solution than we were 24 hours ago. My confidence in the forecast during this period is much lower than normal attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Its funny how yesterday things were pointing towards a colder setup. Fast forward 18 hours or so and no cold air to be found. However, something tells me we still aren't 100% finished with this system, especially N and W of I95. I've never liked this set up for the immediate burbs through the coastal plain. There was never enough cold air to work with despite the track and the HP is not in a good position to deliver the cold. This was always a Lehigh Valley through Pocono's threat to me. It's a thread the needle type threat with the lack of blocking and those rarely work out in the dead of winter let alone towards the end of winter. Absolute best case scenario I really only see a few inches, nothing significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12Z euro took the inland track. It shows zero snow for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ECM did another head fake for a snowstorm yesterday to get hopes back and is back to running it inland did the same thing with the last event. At least it's backed off on super cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 And the EPS mean only has a few inches N and W of 95. There's maybe 7 or 8 members that are a bit more significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ever since Wiggum made this thread it has all gone downhill.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bernie said the second wave will be the big one. 12z JMA confirms Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ever since Wiggum made this thread it has all gone downhill....Things went downhill 2 cycles before I started the thread fyi, but the banter thread was getting cluttered talking about it there thus a separate thread was needed....but I digress. This is a 2-part storm, pretty much has been all along....hinted at by at least a model or two here and there since it was progged. We aren't out of the woods yet bruh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bring on Spring! I am ready.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bring on Spring! I am ready.... And some severe please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bernie said the second wave will be the big one. 12z JMA confirms Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk So does the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bring on Spring! I am ready....Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Agreed. Its been a good season to be honest. Anytime you can get just one NESIS 4 it is a good season IMO With that being said, as I age I look more forward to warmer temps and shorter winter (altough that could also simply be the fact that the winters we get these days seem faaarrrrrrr more severe compared to the winters of my youth). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 eps don't look too bad. Still time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think N and W of 95 are most certainly in the game for some frozen precip with this one (esp with a little elevation) I am also quite confident we have not seen our last accumulating snow event of the year....that includes the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z GFS sends the storm to Indianapolis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 ^ Now that's just plain silly.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Yeah, 18z gfs has the slp track west of New York.... state.That's a 700 mile jump from one run to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I think N and W of 95 are most certainly in the game for some frozen precip with this one (esp with a little elevation) I am also quite confident we have not seen our last accumulating snow event of the year....that includes the coastal plain Paul, Thank you for your positive/hopeful thoughts... After all it is STILL winter folks!! Plenty of non-snow months lie ahead (as well as lots of disgusting heat/humidity) so let's keep some faith til at least mid-March!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 18z GFS sends the storm to Indianapolis 00Z gfs sends the low from Miss. to western Pa. border so its further east. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Ggem well east, off coast, but warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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