Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ens means look good, several teleconnections are looking promising, MJO going thru phases 7-8, energy coming thru a trof in the East which wants to go negative. I don't use the op models at this range but on one side is the warm GGEM, GFS in the middle, and Euro op a decent snow hit. Lots of time to track but some type of storm almost appears a certainty at this point. Discuss here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Blizzard or bust! GEFS have great tracks off the coast but not much cold air around. Everyone east of 95 will likely have issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 The hype has already started. http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2016/02/another_batch_of_snow_and_rain_headed_for_nj_next.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Thanks Ralph for starting the thread, I can't take the NYC forum much longer...nauseating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Awaiting the EPS......if u don't follow my posts, I am a huge fan of using the ens means for guidance at this range, especially the EPS. Isn't always 100% right but usually has a good general idea and won't flop around from run to run like the ops models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 imo this is a NW of 95 event. I don't see this being anything more than a rain storm ending as a little snow for the coastal plain. not enough cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Big shift east and drier on the 12z ECM OP at least we stopped the inland runner trend today that's huge they are hard to get back when they move inside 5 days for some reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 EPS mean is a strong signal for a SECS/MECS at this range for a good chunk of the region verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 WOO HOO! Is the Wiggum Rule in effect now, considering the big warmup from the storm this early this week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Just now, Glenn didn't sound very impressed....who knows? Still ways to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EPS mean is a strong signal for a SECS/MECS at this range for a good chunk of the region verbatim. 25 miles N and W of the Philly. Everyone else have some cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 25 miles N and W of the Philly. Everyone else have some cold rain.I'm definitely still leaning towards a N and W of I95 snow event but really no sense trying to pinpoint specifics at this range...those are just my feelings on this one right now. Fact is, we have a storm to track that carries an accumulating snow potential for part of the region. That's the important thing to know at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I understand there is a storm to track, but with limited shots at a storm left this winter I'd rather be 200 miles from a decent one than 25 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 25 miles N and W of the Philly. Everyone else have some cold rain. What about 24 miles NW of the city? hahahahahahahaha it's way too early to rule it out unless you are along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm definitely still leaning towards a N and W of I95 snow event but really no sense trying to pinpoint specifics at this range...those are just my feelings on this one right now. Fact is, we have a storm to track that carries an accumulating snow potential for part of the region. That's the important thing to know at this time. I'm personally going to keep riding the long-term trend...95SE and some areas closely north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Just now, Glenn didn't sound very impressed....who knows? Still ways to go...Haha he was even more unimpressed last evening at 6 pm which, as my wife pointed out, seemed a direct slam-down of Sheenas 5pm "SNNNNNNO is on the way next week!" forecast. She went on to show the graphic with 46f highs with rain/snow. She repeated her "SNNNNNNO" forecast at 11pm... We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm personally going to keep riding the long-term trend...95SE and some areas closely north and west. That sounds about right huh, don't forget if these locations get rain MOST of PA does too.... There are only three tracks these days, lakes cutter, rare inland runner and benchmark. The tight coastal hugger has gone extinct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I don't know....the more I analyze the ens means it is becoming clearer to me that the Sunday-Monday energy rolling thru will be crucial in terms of filtering in colder air behind it, the depth/location of the cold HP behind the energy, and also serve to setup the baroclinic zone somewhere just off the coast. What I've concluded since 0z last night is that there now appears to be a better setup of cold air trying to establish itself prior to the midweek system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I don't know....the more I analyze the ens means it is becoming clearer to me that the Sunday-Monday energy rolling thru will be crucial in terms of filtering in colder air behind it, the depth/location of the cold HP behind the energy, and also serve to setup the baroclinic zone somewhere just off the coast. What I've concluded since 0z last night is that there now appears to be a better setup of cold air trying to establish itself prior to the midweek system. Bernie Rayno seemed to hint at that with his video earlier today, especially on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bernie Rayno seemed to hint at that with his video earlier today, especially on the Euro I like Bernie. A friend of mine on Facebook posts his videos, and he's very informative and knowledgeable...and he doesn't hype. He just tells it like it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I like Bernie. A friend of mine on Facebook posts his videos, and he's very informative and knowledgeable...and he doesn't hype. He just tells it like it is. Bernie is a good guy. I worked with him while at AccuWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bernie Rayno seemed to hint at that with his video earlier today, especially on the EuroIs there a non-pay site anywhere online to access his discussions or video analysis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Bernie is a good guy. I worked with him while at AccuWeather. Thanks for posting and Ralph, thanks for starting this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Is there a non-pay site anywhere online to access his discussions or video analysis?His videos are free on accu I believehttp://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/accuweather-experts/video/2430839568001/storm-to-impact-east-coast-next-week?autoStart=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 His videos are free on accu I believeThanks haz....will have to check it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dammit Jim....we're losing her. Ops GFS and CMC came in West and warm/rainy and the respective ens means are in the same camp. Euro Op also seems to have come West, haven't seen the EPS. N and W of I95 elevation snows looking more and more likely for now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Dammit Jim....we're losing her. Ops GFS and CMC came in West and warm/rainy and the respective ens means are in the same camp. Euro Op also seems to have come West, haven't seen the EPS. N and W of I95 elevation snows looking more and more likely for now anyway. NYC and Philly get several inches on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 NYC and Philly get several inches on the EuroI would much rather wait for the EPS before I completely commit to 0z as a total loss. Yeah, couple inches Euro op. Notable shift W tho which is the bigger takeaway imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 No comment on 6z GFS west of Aps cutter to Pittsburgh? Better go back at 12z to off shore or this one is just about over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Well that went downhill quickly. EPS are an inland low, 6z GEFS are a Cleveland snow bomb. Who the heck would have thought that the Ukie might be leading the way? I realize it is several days out still but rarely do these cutter/inside runner situations reverse themselves. Hoping Im wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.