Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 If this were to happen it's Sunday night and it's over by morning right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Watch the vortmax track for this one...if the vortmax can stay reasonably consolidated, you'll usually find a really nice stripe just to the north of it. Gonna want a nice consolidated one, otherwise it's fighting the relatively warm air preceding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Gonna want a nice consolidated one, otherwise it's fighting the relatively warm air preceding it. It will also have much weaker lift if the vortmax is sheared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ryan's station Tyler Jankoski @TylerJankoski 6m 6 minutes ago GFS looks lost on Monday. It has sun. We have snow. 500 mb charts GFS/Euro look alike, Euro has snow. Though looking things..seems like it's not snowing during the day Monday..Maybe the GFS picks up on it at 12z..I think we want this falling at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Watch the vortmax track for this one...if the vortmax can stay reasonably consolidated, you'll usually find a really nice stripe just to the north of it.What's the old rule? 3° north of the vortmax track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 What's the old rule? 3° north of the vortmax track? I think that was for big systems...on smaller ones it's more like 1 degree? I've actually found it surprising how often the model guidance has precip too far south in relation to the vort...and then they trend it a bit better. I think probably a lot of the time it is just the models like the shear the vortmax out too quickly, and then it holds it together more as it gets closer. I dunno, we'll see what happens this time. I don't think I'll be using Kevin's -8C isotherm rule though. (which I actually think was originally the -5C isotherm rule in textbooks, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think that was for big systems...on smaller ones it's more like 1 degree? I've actually found it surprising how often the model guidance has precip too far south in relation to the vort...and then they trend it a bit better. I think probably a lot of the time it is just the models like the shear the vortmax out too quickly, and then it holds it together more as it gets closer. I dunno, we'll see what happens this time. I don't think I'll be using Kevin's -8C isotherm rule though. (which I actually think was originally the -5C isotherm rule in textbooks, lol) LOL..I remember reading that rule somewhere. It was like along the -8C isotherm where you would look for another big band of deformation snow ..farther north than modeled. I distinctly recall reading that. Is there no truth to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 LOL..I remember reading that rule somewhere. It was like along the -8C isotherm where you would look for another big band of deformation snow ..farther north than modeled. I distinctly recall reading that. Is there no truth to it? It was kind of a generic rule back for when we had much less model data. There was some truth, but really not all that useful in today's forecasting. Using a hard threshold on temperature isotherm is going to fail in events that deviate from average (paste bombs and arctic fluff bombs) I find watching vortmax tracks and mid-level tracks though to still be very useful even today...everyone forgets that model QPF is the worst scoring parameter even if it's gotten a lot better in the past decade. Anyways, a bit OT...but that's what I meant when I was saying watch that vort track...esp on these small little redevelopers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I think that was for big systems...on smaller ones it's more like 1 degree? I've actually found it surprising how often the model guidance has precip too far south in relation to the vort...and then they trend it a bit better. I think probably a lot of the time it is just the models like the shear the vortmax out too quickly, and then it holds it together more as it gets closer. I dunno, we'll see what happens this time. I don't think I'll be using Kevin's -8C isotherm rule though. (which I actually think was originally the -5C isotherm rule in textbooks, lol) Yeah...that always seemed to work better with a strong, consolidated bowling ball going W to E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z GFS stills says what threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Let's see what other models have but not looking great now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z ggem is a shredded mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 RPM is like the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 12z ggem is a shredded mess Still a lot better than the GFS...GGEM is probably like a 1-3 type event for SNE...best to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 To call the 12z Navgem a miss is a gross understatement. Through 72 it doesn't get precip north of the NC/VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Ukie also looks like a clean whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro looks pretty flat through 48, so I'm guessing it will whiff almost clean...we've been getting pretty good changes inside 4 days on this event...so nevermind the one after it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Euro looks pretty flat through 48, so I'm guessing it will whiff almost clean...we've been getting pretty good changes inside 4 days on this event...so nevermind the one after it. I was a bit premature...trying to make up for it a bit as it approaches the coast. Looks like it will be decent at least south of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 About an inch of two along and south of the pike for the Euro...elevation will help....lower areas (esp in S CT over to SE MA) may deal with BL for part of it. Nothing all that exciting like the 12z NAM, but it still bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nice. We got her back. She came, left and decided to come again after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Nice. We got her back. She came, left and decided to come again after all Still jumping a bit, probably like to see some better agreement before we declare anything. Several pieces of guidance completely whiffed at 12z today. About an inch of two along and south of the pike for the Euro...elevation will help....lower areas (esp in S CT over to SE MA) may deal with BL for part of it. Nothing all that exciting like the 12z NAM, but it still bears watching. I would probably be in a decent spot should that verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z Nam is rather meager, Looks like it slipped south fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 18z Nam is rather meager, Looks like it slipped south fwiw Looks pretty similar to the Euro now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Looks pretty similar to the Euro now. Couple inches down that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 1-3/2-4 kind of deal seems way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 1-3/2-4 kind of deal seems way to go. 18z GFS says its a 0"-0" type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z NAM vs 6z - slightly higher heights in the Atlantic, tick NW with storm track. Consistent with seasonal trend, a few more ticks and SEMA might be in the game for accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 12z RGEM is a bit further N than 06z thru 00z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS is back to being south again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteLawns Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS is back to being south again. ^ very disappointed in our government... The run to run continuity on the gfs this year has been horrendous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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