colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I'm at 64 right now. Just came in from cleaning my jeep. It's amazing out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Low right on top of us equals windy and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Low right on top of us equals windy and cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Pretty good consensus of the major models right over Pgh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Just hit 69° Makes it really hard to feel bad over these model runs. Even this pens game can't bring me down at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Precip of course wont be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Just hit 69° Makes it really hard to feel bad over these model runs. Even this pens game can't bring me down at this point. 68 here. Plenty of sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Wxrisk.com 2 hrs · STAND DOWN THE BOMBERS !! UPDATE ON FEB 23-24-25 ... Sometimes in the weather business the overall weather pattern and setup is locked in place so strongly that you can see events coming many days out with a fairly high degree of confidence. The blizzard of January 22 -23 is one example of this. Hurricane SANDY in October 2012 is another example of this. The December 19-20 historic East Coast snowstorm of 2009 is yet another example. But sometimes the overall patterns are increasingly unstable and things consistently shift. While this may cause of some chaos and forecast uncertainty if the constantly shifting pattern is consistently shifting away from the initial assessment / forecast.... that also MEANS something. I believe that is the case with this event coming up for February 23-24-25. . To begin with... all the weather models over the past 36 hours now show 2 separate and unrelated systems. The first LOW comes in February 23 with areas of rain over much of the Middle Atlantic region. Over the Shenandoah Valley as well as portions of Eastern West Virginia and Western Maryland some of the precipitation maybe sleet or wet snow. But this does not look like a big event. . The main event however is a much stronger system that develops over the Mississippi Delta region of LA ARK on 2/24. Many of the weather models have been taking the system up the spine of the Appalachian Mts--- which earlier in the week I believed was taking this LOW too far to the west. However the last model which showed the more easterly y track - European ensemble - shifted significantly to the west early this Saturday morning with this main LOW on 2/24 and 2/25. *****This trend of keeping the main Low along or close to a track from northern MS into central TN into WVA into western PA & western NY ... means that the threat of any sort of significant winter weather from FEB 24-25 LOW over any portion of the Middle Atlantic states or New England is now over. **** . Later on today I will do write about why this has happened and why it is unlikely for the weather models to shift the track of this Big Low on February 24-25 back to the east. But based upon all the model data now I can no longer believe that any portion of this event is going to bring any kind as ***significant ** winter/ frozen precipitation type to any portion of the Middle Atlantic or New England area with any sort of significance. . Yes it is still possible that some portion of western MD or interior western New England or upstate NY could see a few inches of snow from the FEB 24-25 LOW but the key word here is **significant**. And it is still possible that there could be a slight shift back to the east over the next few days with the track of the main LOW On February 24-25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Well fortunately or unfortunately this will most likely not be our last threat. With the teleconnections looking favorable we will still have a shot if this one doesnt work out. +PNA, -AO, -NAO, =EPO means let the games begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 Welp.. I'm afraid this one is a wrap. Onto March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Way west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Welp.. I'm afraid this one is a wrap. Onto March... This one was a lot easier to swallow than the PD storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 From wrap around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This one was a lot easier to swallow than the PD storm. Hopefully it cuts to Minnesota at this point and we get a nice warm, but dry day out of it. What really sucks is we are wasting another week in Feb essentially. Maybe we can get some sort of overrunning storm next week, but at this point that is so far off not really worth considering. I am concerned the next threat may be favored to be south of us with the PV suppression, then east of us as the blocking will be in place if there is another storm. Not throwing in the towel by any means, but we are due a below average winter given the last 3 have been average to above average. Regression to the mean and all that jazz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 decent wrap around and then a clipper after. Someone to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 This picture almost looks like it gives Eastern Ohio and Western Pa the finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Keep going west. I want warmth if its not gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 Keep going west. I want warmth if its not gonna snow. I'm with you. Looks like this is a dud and if we're not getting more then a slushy inch just stay west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 21, 2016 Author Share Posted February 21, 2016 18z GFS bringing the wraparound with a little bit more intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 21, 2016 Share Posted February 21, 2016 18z GFS bringing the wraparound with a little bit more intensity. I just got off of work and was gonna post this. Honestly this is something to keep an eye on. OHIO probably will see 3-6 from backlash alone. This is the one time it pays to be on the west side of the ridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Congrats Cheboygan? Seems like a wash, not too surprised really. Takes a lot for us to get the good stuff. Lakes cutters are just the worst, though. I think there's a chance for something in March, especially following the last two winters, but I won't hold out too much hope. It would likely be limited to a 4-8" max event anyway, then melts the next day at that time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 22, 2016 Author Share Posted February 22, 2016 Congrats Cheboygan? Seems like a wash, not too surprised really. Takes a lot for us to get the good stuff. Lakes cutters are just the worst, though. I think there's a chance for something in March, especially following the last two winters, but I won't hold out too much hope. It would likely be limited to a 4-8" max event anyway, then melts the next day at that time of year. We received our storm for the year, so I've been trying to keep my moaning and groaning to a very minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ethel975 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Quick question for all of you because you are my go-to weather source CPC still has us in the heavy snow area for Tuesday-Wednesday. Any idea why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Quick question for all of you because you are my go-to weather source CPC still has us in the heavy snow area for Tuesday-Wednesday. Any idea why? Both days are going to be warm. Prob 50-55. Lows won't even reach freezing. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 So just out of curiosity I checked out the 2M temperatures for the Wednesday-Thursday storm and even areas to the NW of the storm are above freezing while its snowing. Going to be a wet snow for those that see it, makes feel even less bad about missing the main low. Wrap around is hit or miss and usually a miss, but this one is moving a bit slower so maybe we get lucky. Still some sort of overrunning look on the GFS for early next week. Right now its SE of us, but I think there is a chance that trends North as we close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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