SteelCity08 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This is what I feel like every week after a drastic model change. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4kiXh8YOzk Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteelCity08 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This is me waiting for a 10+ storm. Almost there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burghblizz Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Does anyone ever recall when a storm was modeled within 4-5 days by multiple models to be a west lakes cutter, and the storm in the end became a coastal/inland runner storm? I seriously never remember that happening. maybe by the NAM 84 hours out....but otherwise i cant think of one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Does anyone ever recall when a storm was modeled within 4-5 days by multiple models to be a west lakes cutter, and the storm in the end became a coastal/inland runner storm? I seriously never remember that happening. Usually if this is looking like a lakes cutter it doesnt trend. Lets see what the 0z suite says. If more models latch onto the idea then we are screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Bernie says a small wave Tuesday and then maybe a better chance at some snow Wednesday. Just started following him. Does he have a good track record? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Bernie says a small wave Tuesday and then maybe a better chance at some snow Wednesday. Just started following him. Does he have a good track record? Ehh hes alright. Not always accurate but he does a good job at explaining the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lvfd404 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Ehh hes alright. Not always accurate but he does a good job at explaining the possibilities. Its like watching a train wreck for me. I just cant stop listening to him...only gets my hopes up and then the big let down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Its like watching a train wreck for me. I just cant stop listening to him...only gets my hopes up and then the big let down. Thats a good way to put it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Looking a bit wet Wednesday. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS is east but not east enough..At least it is improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Right where we want it 4-5 days out. Looks like we get some backside snow out of the deal. Winds should be decent, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 GFS Big jump back in the right direction. Still a ways to go. Nowcast: Just had some strong winds over 40 mph gust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 CMC is a good track for us.. just not even cold air, it appears. Well.. not the best track, but I don't think it's bad by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Thoughts from DT. Will have to ignore Pittsburgh being in Westmoreland County (once again)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Euro has a 992mb low in Lexington, Kentucky at 120h. Not looking promising (this run). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 I wont even subject my eyes to the whole Euro run. I would rather get some more sleep. Its that bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mailman Posted February 20, 2016 Author Share Posted February 20, 2016 Won't dismiss this system one way or the other until at least 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 From what I can tell the models seem to now be keying in on the second wave, and also slowing down the trough. If you remember the storm was originally looking like a Tuesday-Wednesday deal but its now a Wednesday into Thursday storm. This change has allowed the high pressure in Canada to scoot east out ahead of the storm and is now replaced by a trough in the lakes, so once the storm starts to amp up there is little cold air, and nothing to stop it from tracking almost due North if it deepens and phases fast enough. Overall trend looks pretty bad right now, but I think it is still worth casually keeping an eye on it for any other changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 This storm fell apart faster than most of other threats. I think Bernie is gonna be way wrong after saying no way this cuts west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 52 at 9am. When do we spring ahead? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 My gut says we miss out and Chicago & Detroit get the worst. If that's the case maybe it will stay sunny and 65 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 52 at 9am. When do we spring ahead? In a few weeks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psunate1977 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Honestly, when we spring ahead and it stays light until 730. I usually then start wanting warmer weather. So hopefully we get a good snow in the next few weeks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Give me a 6+ storm or give me a day like today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Give me a 6+ storm or give me a day like today. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Honestly, when we spring ahead and it stays light until 730. I usually then start wanting warmer weather. So hopefully we get a good snow in the next few weeks. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yeah, by then it will by middle of March too, so snow really is just a nuisance that time of year, unless its going to be something big I'd rather move to Spring by mid March. I mean even now as we approach the end of Feb, a 2-4 event is really take it or leave it. The later in the season the bigger more anomalous the storm has to be get my interest. With that being said, 12z GFS came a bit east, but still tracks the low right over top of us into Erie, similar to UKIE track a couple days ago. It if it phases later, we might have a chance for it go further east before gaining latitude. As currently modeled, with no HP to the North and warm antecedent air mass it would likely just be a warmer version of the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 20, 2016 Share Posted February 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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