colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EPS has moved West Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not crazy about the weak trough being in place of where we would like to see HP. Like this past storm, said trough tends to shear off the cold sector precip leaving a narrow heavy snow corridor. However all we really need is for the low to not ride the apps, or be west of course. We'll at least have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoraopolisWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Not crazy about the weak trough being in place of where we would like to see HP. Like this past storm, said trough tends to shear off the cold sector precip leaving a narrow heavy snow corridor. However all we really need is for the low to not ride the apps, or be west of course. We'll at least have a chance. This was based on the 6z GFS.Hopefully that WPC graphic is closer to what we see next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 This was based on the 6z GFS. Hopefully that WPC graphic is closer to what we see next week. WPC and Para EURO seem to be what we should be following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 US National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 47 mins · We have received several questions about the weather next week. The computer models that we Meteorologists use as guidance have been hinting at a potential system that could bring winter impacts to our region. Attached is an image that puts these questions into a better perspective. The disturbance that could eventually develop is still all the way up on the west fringe of the Aleutian Islands. That is over 4000 miles away! As we very recently experienced with this last week's system, a difference on the order of tens of miles can make a big difference in the overall impacts. As it stands now, one model has the system directly overhead Wednesday, while another has the system well to our south, with our forecast area remaining almost completely dry. We forecast up to 7 days out, which does include the time frame in question. Right now, experience tells us there are still many details that need to be resolved in the coming days. We will be sifting through the data and examining all the models, so you don't have to. In the meantime, enjoy the warm and relatively dry weekend ahead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evilpens64 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gotta keep those viewers and website traffic up. http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/larry-cosgrove 30 Years of Being a Meteorologist ! don't think it is about clicks ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 What a mess of a setup, GFS is all over the place. Probably another 2 days before we get some clarity. Its good the Euro is showing better snow chances vs he other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Now I know why Joe Denardo was so good. He only put out forecasts 7 days or less. To try and put one out after 7 days in today's environment is stupid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
north pgh Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Canadian is back with the storm at least. That's all I want is something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 UKIE looks like it will cut to Chicago lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EURO out to sea from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 UKIE looks like it will cut to Chicago lol It doesn't look to be negatively tilted at that point so I think we are safe from a west lakes cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 EURO out to sea from here I bet DT does one of his alerts now. These models are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 It doesn't look to be negatively tilted at that point so I think we are safe from a west lakes cutter... True, trough still looks neutral now that I look at it more closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Seems like today GFS and Euro both focus on the second piece of energy so we end up with a weaker further east storm. I don't think its uncommon for models to lose storms in this time range so I wouldn't get discouraged over anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 So UKie would cut thru Erie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Really not gonna stress over any model runs from 6 days out. I think Bernie has the right outlook about how the models have a windshield wiper effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 12z Para GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Since the gfs was so bad. Here's some model porn for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Since the gfs was so bad. Here's some model porn for everyone. Para Euro seems to be the best in terms of snow over the last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 That is the best verifying model. Just want we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That is the best verifying model. Just want we want. When does it take over for the OP Euro, March sometime right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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