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Pittsburgh, PA: Late Winter --> Spring '16...


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On July 29, 2016 at 4:55 PM, Animal said:

 

Not really looking to get to the north side that far such as the Butler area.

I see Cranberry is north. 

My wife is used to the traffic, she has a 35-40  mile commute each way now.

she would be working  swing shifts at a hospital etc.

My concern is that If I agree to move into the city, I never get to leave the city. lol.

 

West side it out of consideration as I would be pissed when one the big east coast storms hits the area and kicks back snow to the pitt area.

i see  condos/townhouses are not very expensive in the Seven Springs/Hidden Valley area. May consider buying a  place out in that area to get my fix if we move into the city. Assume it it nice all year around out in the higher terrain.

 

 

I haven't been on for a while and just saw this.  We just moved to Cranberry....very nice, safe area and it's 20-25 minutes to downtown during normal traffic.  Cranberry has everything you would need yet is close to the city.  The topography is gently rolling hills plus it's north of the city and will tend to stay colder when the dreaded warm wedge bulges up the west side of the mountains.   This area gets some lake effect, but you would have to go a lot farther north to see the heavier LES.  

The township is all subdivisions but they paid attention to green space, still a lot of farms in the township.  Great community parks and township pool.  Neighboring Adams Twp. Is the next growing area if you like more country atmosphere.  Both areas are in Butler County with a lower tax rate...pay attention to that when looking.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1592
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0442 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL INTO EASTERN OH...NORTHERN WV
   PANHANDLE...WESTERN PA...WESTERN NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 252142Z - 252315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO
   THE EVENINGS HOURS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR LAKE ERIE...PROBABLY IN THE
   VICINITY OF A LAKE BREEZE/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE...AS WELL AS
   FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OH IN THE WARM SECTOR. WEAK IMPULSES
   TRAVERSING THROUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST PROVIDE SOME
   WEAK UPPER FORCING...AND SOUTHWESTERLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KT
   WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUSTAIN ORGANIZED STORMS. MIDLEVEL
   LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...AROUND 5.5-6.0 DEG C/KM...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
   HAIL PRODUCTION. BUT STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND PW VALUES
   GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES COULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG DOWNBURST
   WINDS. LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FROM REGIONAL VWP/S SHOW SOME SLIGHT
   CURVATURE...WITH 0-1KM SRH GENERALLY AROUND 50 M2/S2 OR LESS
   INDICATE THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL...WHILE NOT ZERO...IS LOW. 

   HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW STORM CLUSTERS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
   THROUGH EVENING THOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW WIDESPREAD SEVERE
   THREAT WILL REMAIN BEYOND PEAK HEATING WITHOUT STRONGER
   SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL FOCUS. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
   WATCH ISSUANCE.

   ..LEITMAN/THOMPSON.. 08/25/2016


   ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...

   LAT...LON   39528171 39588221 39838275 40398302 41168275 41628229
               41908187 42028165 42278106 43287902 43187848 42767819
               42247836 41207885 40327942 39928019 39708073 39528171 
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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC003-282300-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0119.160828T2216Z-160828T2300Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
616 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EAST CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 615 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
  WILKINSBURG...OR NEAR PITTSBURGH...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN
           SOME POWER OUTAGES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PITTSBURGH...PENN HILLS...MONROEVILLE...MCKEESPORT...PLUM...WEST
  MIFFLIN...BALDWIN...WILKINSBURG...MUNHALL...NORTH VERSAILLES...
  SWISSVALE...O`HARA TOWNSHIP...WHITE OAK...FOREST HILLS...WILKINS
  TOWNSHIP...OAKMONT...DUQUESNE...FOX CHAPEL...TURTLE CREEK AND NORTH
  BRADDOCK.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
  PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 52 AND 56.

  INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 72 AND 84.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING 4 1 2...2 6 2...1 9 8 8...
POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4040 8000 4055 7990 4048 7972 4032 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 295DEG 10KT 4045 7990

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$



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Flood Warning

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
644 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

PAC003-290130-
/O.CON.KPBZ.FA.W.0013.000000T0000Z-160829T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ALLEGHENY PA-
644 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 930 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY...

AT 644 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. UP TO TWO INCHES OF
RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
PITTSBURGH...PENN HILLS...ROSS TOWNSHIP...MONROEVILLE...SHALER
TOWNSHIP...BALDWIN...WILKINSBURG...MUNHALL...NORTH VERSAILLES...
SWISSVALE...O`HARA TOWNSHIP...FOREST HILLS...WILKINS TOWNSHIP...
OAKMONT...FOX CHAPEL...TURTLE CREEK...NORTH BRADDOCK...MILLVALE...
ETNA AND SHARPSBURG.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 4052 7981 4040 7980 4040 7999 4052 7999

$$

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
PAC003-282330-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.SV.W.0120.160828T2302Z-160828T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
702 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 730 PM EDT

* AT 702 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER
  PITTSBURGH... AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN
           SOME POWER OUTAGES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PITTSBURGH...PENN HILLS...MOUNT LEBANON...ROSS TOWNSHIP...SHALER
  TOWNSHIP...NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH...BALDWIN...WILKINSBURG...
  WHITEHALL...MUNHALL...BRENTWOOD...SWISSVALE...DORMONT...O`HARA
  TOWNSHIP...OAKMONT...CRAFTON...FOX CHAPEL...GREEN TREE...MILLVALE
  AND ETNA.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
  INTERSTATE 279 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 4.

  INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 67 AND 79.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER BY CALLING 4 1 2...2 6 2...1 9 8 8...
POSTING TO THE NWS PITTSBURGH FACEBOOK PAGE...OR USING TWITTER
@NWSPITTSBURGH.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 8007 4054 7996 4050 7978 4037 7995
      4038 8002
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 288DEG 3KT 4045 7994

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

24

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
801 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WEST CENTRAL FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 801 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  BROWNSVILLE...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF UNIONTOWN...AND IS NEARLY
  STATIONARY.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
           TO TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN SOME POWER
           OUTAGES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  UNIONTOWN...BROWNSVILLE...WEST BROWNSVILLE...REPUBLIC...GRINDSTONE
  AND NEW SALEM.
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T7gYUNd.gif

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 474
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   330 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2016

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
     WESTERN NEW YORK
     NORTHERN AND EASTERN OHIO
     WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
     NORTHERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA
     LAKE ERIE
     LAKE ONTARIO

   * EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL
     1000 PM EDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
     SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

   SUMMARY...LINE OF STORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OHIO WILL
   PROGRESS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS
   EVENING. STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED...WHICH
   MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS.

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH
   SOUTHEAST OF MANSFIELD OHIO TO 30 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
   ROCHESTER NEW YORK.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
   THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 473...

   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
   A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION
   VECTOR 23040.


   ...GRAMS
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  • 3 weeks later...

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
607 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

PAZ021-012245-
ALLEGHENY-
607 PM EDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY...

AT 606 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER EDGEWOOD...OR
NEAR PITTSBURGH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBURGH...PENN HILLS...ROSS TOWNSHIP...MCCANDLESS TOWNSHIP...
MONROEVILLE...MCKEESPORT...FRANKLIN PARK...SHALER TOWNSHIP...PLUM...
WEST MIFFLIN...NORTH SIDE PITTSBURGH...BALDWIN...HAMPTON TOWNSHIP...
WILKINSBURG...WHITEHALL...NEW KENSINGTON...MUNHALL...NORTH
VERSAILLES...BRENTWOOD AND SWISSVALE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
  PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 30 AND 56.

  INTERSTATE 279 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 6.

  INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 70 AND 84.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 4039 7977 4036 7978 4034 7999 4067 8010
      4067 7976 4060 7976 4059 7977 4055 7977
      4055 7975 4039 7975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2206Z 171DEG 18KT 4044 7989

$$


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  • 2 weeks later...
On 9/29/2016 at 10:23 AM, colonel717 said:

Just saw the Euro monthlies are forecasting a cold December and January. Would be nice to have cold air around for the Holidays this year so I'm all in for winter starting in December. Lakes are pretty warm so if we get some early cold shots with well timed clippers it could make for some nice systems to track. I love the big blockbuster storms, but they are rare and sometimes I'm left feeling like Linus in the pumpkin patch waiting for the great pumpkin and missing out on everything else.

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Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

MDZ001-PAZ008-009-014>016-021>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ021-509>514-
102200-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0003.161011T0600Z-161011T1300Z/
GARRETT-VENANGO-FOREST-BUTLER-CLARION-JEFFERSON-ALLEGHENY-
ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-MARION-MONONGALIA-
RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-PRESTON-
EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK...OAKLAND MD...
GRANTSVILLE...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA...BUTLER...CLARION...
PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...INDIANA...WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...WAYNESBURG...
MURRYSVILLE...GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...
UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...OHIOPYLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...
COOPERS ROCK...KINGWOOD...BRUCETON MILLS...TERRA ALTA...
ROWLESBURG...HAZELTON...PARSONS...HENDRICKS...SAINT GEORGE...
DAVIS...THOMAS...CANAAN VALLEY
1015 AM EDT MON OCT 10 2016

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

* AREAS AFFECTED...THE VALLEYS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN
  PENNSYLVANIA...AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF NORTHEAST WEST
  VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT WESTERN MARYLAND.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST
  ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED BETWEEN 3 AND 8 AM TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED. THE MOST
  WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED...DAMAGING FROST WILL OCCUR IN THE
  SHELTERED DEEPER VALLEYS EXTENDING FROM DU BOIS SOUTHWARD
  THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO PARSONS AND TUCKER COUNTIES IN
  WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

BOOKBINDER



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5 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Just saw the Euro monthlies are forecasting a cold December and January. Would be nice to have cold air around for the Holidays this year so I'm all in for winter starting in December. Lakes are pretty warm so if we get some early cold shots with well timed clippers it could make for some nice systems to track. I love the big blockbuster storms, but they are rare and sometimes I'm left feeling like Linus in the pumpkin patch waiting for the great pumpkin and missing out on everything else.

I hope so. 

Not interested in playing golf around thanksgiving and Christmas again. 

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Frost Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
216 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016


MDZ001-OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-
020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514-140330-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.FR.Y.0004.161014T0700Z-161014T1300Z/
GARRETT-TUSCARAWAS-CARROLL-COLUMBIANA-COSHOCTON-HARRISON-
JEFFERSON-MUSKINGUM-GUERNSEY-BELMONT-NOBLE-MONROE-MERCER-VENANGO-
FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-
WASHINGTON-GREENE-WESTMORELAND-WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-
FAYETTE RIDGES-HANCOCK-BROOKE-OHIO-MARSHALL-WETZEL-MARION-
MONONGALIA-RIDGES OF EASTERN MONONGALIA AND NORTHWESTERN PRESTON-
PRESTON-EASTERN PRESTON-WESTERN TUCKER-EASTERN TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNTAIN LAKE PARK...OAKLAND MD...
GRANTSVILLE...NEW PHILADELPHIA...DOVER...CARROLLTON...MALVERN...
EAST LIVERPOOL...SALEM...COLUMBIANA...COSHOCTON...CADIZ...
STEUBENVILLE...ZANESVILLE...CAMBRIDGE...MARTINS FERRY...
ST. CLAIRSVILLE...CALDWELL...WOODSFIELD...SHARON...HERMITAGE...
GROVE CITY...OIL CITY...FRANKLIN...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...
ELLWOOD CITY...BUTLER...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BROOKVILLE...
ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...MONACA...
PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...FORD CITY...INDIANA...
WASHINGTON...CANONSBURG...WAYNESBURG...MURRYSVILLE...GREENSBURG...
NEW KENSINGTON...LIGONIER...DONEGAL...UNIONTOWN...CHAMPION...
OHIOPYLE...WEIRTON...FOLLANSBEE...WELLSBURG...WHEELING...
MOUNDSVILLE...NEW MARTINSVILLE...FAIRMONT...MORGANTOWN...
COOPERS ROCK...KINGWOOD...BRUCETON MILLS...TERRA ALTA...
ROWLESBURG...HAZELTON...PARSONS...HENDRICKS...SAINT GEORGE...
DAVIS...THOMAS...CANAAN VALLEY
216 PM EDT THU OCT 13 2016

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE 30S.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST
  ARE PRIMARILY EXPECTED FROM 3 AM UNTIL 9 AM.

* IMPACTS...SENSITIVE PLANTS MAY BE DAMAGED OR KILLED. THE MOST
  WIDESPREAD AND PROLONGED DAMAGING FROST WILL OCCUR IN THE
  SHELTERED DEEPER VALLEYS EXTENDING FROM DUBOIS SOUTHWARD
  THROUGH THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO PARSONS AND TUCKER COUNTIES
  IN WEST VIRGINIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&
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mp4bxST.gif

ESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1802
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0128 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OHIO...NORTHERN WEST
   VIRGINIA...AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 201828Z - 202100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OF ALL TYPES IS INCREASING
   OVER THE AREA. THERE IS SOME TORNADO RISK OVER ALL THE AREA BUT IS
   HIGHEST OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA. A WEATHER WATCH MAY
   BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE BOUNDARY-LAYER
   CUMULUS IS INCREASING ALONG BOTH THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
   WIDESPREAD CLOUD/PRECIPITATION SHIELD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ALONG
   A PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE ZONE TO THE WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MNTS OVER
   SOUTHWESTERN PA.  A FEW SMALL ECHOES HAVE APPEARED OVER THE NORTHERN
   PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA...AN INDICATION OF ERODING CINH. 

   WIDESPREAD SURFACE HEATING HAS LED TO TEMPERATURES INCREASING INTO
   THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA...WITH
   HEATING OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA LAGGING A LITTLE
   BEHIND AS THE WEDGE FRONT/LOW-LEVEL STRATUS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE.
   CONSEQUENTLY...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME FAIRLY STEEP /7.5
   TO 8 DEG C PER KM/ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. 

   ALTHOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL AT THE PRESENT
   TIME /EXCEPT FOR A VERY SHALLOW SURFACE LAYER WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
   PER SURFACE OBS AND KCCX VAD WINDS/...RAP AND HRRR FORECASTS SUGGEST
   THE HODOGRAPHS WILL RAPIDLY OBTAIN CLOCKWISE CURVATURE OVER THE NEXT
   FEW HOURS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE AREA.
   FURTHERMORE...THE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- CURRENTLY AROUND 
   45-50 KT -- SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE DEEPENING TROUGH/JET
   STREAK TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA.

   THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR IS RATHER MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND THE ASSOCIATED MODEST MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES OF 250-750 J/KG.
   THESE MLCAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ONLY TO 1250 J/KG AT THE
   HIGHEST. A LACK OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PROVIDING SOME
   UNCERTAINTY TO THE LONGEVITY/INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS THAT ARE
   NOT BEING FORCED ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD
   HEATING...ERODING CINH...AND SHEAR PROFILES THAT WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS...SEVERE HAIL...AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY REQUIRE A WATCH
   ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

   ..CONIGLIO/COHEN/DARROW.. 10/20/2016


   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

   LAT...LON   41917831 41977716 41597696 41087698 40177775 39607840
               39087942 38508023 38568132 38708195 39418198 40198119
               40958038 41917831 
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WOUS64 KWNS 201944
   WOU9

   BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 499
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   345 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2016

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM EDT
   FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

   MDC023-210300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0499.161020T1945Z-161021T0300Z/

   MD 
   .    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   GARRETT              


   PAC003-005-009-013-019-021-023-027-031-033-035-047-051-053-059-
   061-063-065-081-083-105-111-117-125-129-210300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0499.161020T1945Z-161021T0300Z/

   PA 
   .    PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   ALLEGHENY            ARMSTRONG           BEDFORD             
   BLAIR                BUTLER              CAMBRIA             
   CAMERON              CENTRE              CLARION             
   CLEARFIELD           CLINTON             ELK                 
   FAYETTE              FOREST              GREENE              
   HUNTINGDON           INDIANA             JEFFERSON           
   LYCOMING             MCKEAN              POTTER              
   SOMERSET             TIOGA               WASHINGTON          
   WESTMORELAND         


   WVC049-051-061-077-103-210300-
   /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0499.161020T1945Z-161021T0300Z/

   WV 
   .    WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

   MARION               MARSHALL            MONONGALIA          
   PRESTON              WETZEL              


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CTP...
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