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Pittsburgh, PA: Late Winter --> Spring '16...


Mailman

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Was watching good ol' TWC and Dr. Forbes has Western PA at a TOR:CON of 4, if you're into that sort of thing, for overnight tomorrow into Thursday morning. Not sure if I'm buying the hype, however.

I wouldn't buy into it either. The primary threat is overnight, and it looks like the heaviest and most severe weather is south. Just in general we don't get many late night severe events.

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Slight Risk expanded.

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   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0800 PM CDT WED JUN 22 2016   VALID 230100Z - 231200Z   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN IL...FAR   SWRN LOWER MI...NRN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...AND PARTS OF WRN OH...   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK   AREA...AND EXTENDING S AND E INTO NRN KY/WRN WV...   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM SRN MN/ERN IA   EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO PARTS OF SWRN PA/MD/VA/NC...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK   AREA...   ...SUMMARY...   WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SOME GREATER THAN 70 MILES PER   HOUR ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF TORNADOES AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL   CONTINUE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST   LOWER MICHIGAN...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL INDIANA...AND PARTS OF WESTERN   OHIO. A WIND-DAMAGE THREAT MAY ALSO AFFECT THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.   ...DISCUSSION...   PRIOR FORECAST REASONING AND EXPECTATIONS FOR EVOLUTION OF   CONVECTION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD REMAIN VALID...WITH A   LARGE/EVOLVING CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS NOW CROSSING NRN IL.    THIS BAND OF STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED CELLS CROSSING SRN LK   MI...SWRN LOWER MI..AND NWRN OH -- WILL CONTINUE SPREADING   EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITHIN BACKGROUND FLOW   FIELD FEATURING 40 TO 60 KT WNWLYS ALOFT...AND THROUGH AN AXIS OF   MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY LYING ACROSS THE AREA.  FARTHER   NW...A SMALLER CLUSTER OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS IS ONGOING   OVER PARTS OF ERN/SRN MN...WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF WRN WI   AND POSSIBLY NERN IA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ALONG WITH RISK   FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- MAINLY OVER THE NRN   IL VICINITY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE   MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION.  LINGERING CONVECTION -- AND LOCAL WIND   RISK -- MAY EXTEND AS FAR SEWD AS WRN MD...CENTRAL VA/...AND N   CENTRAL NC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   ..GOSS.. 06/23/2016
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  SPC AC 071729   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1229 PM CDT THU JUL 07 2016   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC TO   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF ERN/CNTRL STATES...   ...SUMMARY...   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FRIDAY   AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES   SOUTHWEST TO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND WEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.   ...SYNOPSIS...   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES   THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. AN ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK   FROM UPPER MI INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT   WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO THE OZARK PLATEAU...WITH   TRAILING PORTION QUASI-STATIONARY NEAR THE KS/OK BORDER.    ...GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...   SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT LEAST OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT   LAKES AND MIDWEST THURSDAY MORNING. DIABATIC DESTABILIZATION WILL   OCCUR OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION AMID MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE   70S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH PREVAILING MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES...THE   EASTERN PORTION OF AN ELEVATED MIXED-LAYER PLUME SHOULD REACH AT   LEAST THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL YIELD GENERALLY   MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY /OUTSIDE OF MORNING CONVECTIVELY   MODIFIED AREAS/...WITH EXTREME BUOYANCY POSSIBLY CENTERED ON THE   LOWER OH VALLEY.   WHILE 500-MB WESTERLIES AOA 50 KT MAY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE   IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WI INTO LOWER   MI...A BROAD SWATH OF 30-50 KT 700-500 MB WEST/NORTHWESTERLIES   APPEARS LIKELY TO BE PERVASIVE FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE   AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR DOWNSTREAM   INTENSIFICATION OF MORNING ACTIVITY INTO MULTIPLE CLUSTERS ACROSS   THE APPALACHIAN/MID-ATLANTIC STATES WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.   UPSTREAM...FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE LOWER MI   PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...DIMINISHING WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT TO THE   MID-MS VALLEY. GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER GREATLY OVER STORM COVERAGE NEAR   THE FRONT...BUT THE CONDITIONAL RISK FOR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST GIVEN   THE DEGREE OF POTENTIAL INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR FOR   ORGANIZED STORMS.    ...OZARK PLATEAU TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...   SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S WITH AROUND 2 INCH PW   VALUES SHOULD BE PRESENT NEAR THE FRONT OVER THE OZARK   PLATEAU...WITH RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED   WEST/NORTHWEST AMID UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.   THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY AS SURFACE   TEMPERATURES BECOME HOT SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH MID/UPPER FLOW   SHOULD REMAIN MODEST...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR WEAKLY ORGANIZED   CLUSTERS PRODUCING WIND/HAIL AS STORMS DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON. MOST   ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER DUSK...BUT NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET MAY SUPPORT A LATE EVENING/EARLY   OVERNIGHT SEVERE RISK CONTINUING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KS.   ..GRAMS.. 07/07/2016   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 1756Z (1:56PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME
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Special Weather Statement


SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

601 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

PAZ014-020>022-072230-

BUTLER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-

601 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL

ARMSTRONG...CENTRAL BEAVER...SOUTHERN BUTLER AND NORTHWESTERN

ALLEGHENY COUNTIES...

AT 600 PM EDT...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED

ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BUTLER TO BEAVER

FALLS. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE

STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

MCCANDLESS TOWNSHIP...CRANBERRY...BUTLER...FRANKLIN PARK...

ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...MONACA...KITTANNING...ECONOMY...

AMBRIDGE...WEXFORD...HOMEACRE-LYNDORA...NEW BRIGHTON...

SHANOR-NORTHVUE...BEAVER...BADEN...MERIDIAN...ZELIENOPLE...

ROCHESTER AND OHIOVILLE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...

PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 13 AND 35.

INTERSTATE 79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 72 AND 92.

INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31 AND 49.

LAT...LON 4053 8027 4076 8051 4098 7975 4087 7936

TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 314DEG 37KT 4091 7977 4074 8035

$$

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Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
740 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

PAZ021-029-150015-
WASHINGTON-ALLEGHENY-
740 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN ALLEGHENY COUNTIES...

AT 740 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHEAST
OF AVELLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBURGH...MOUNT LEBANON...BETHEL PARK...MOON TOWNSHIP...
FRANKLIN PARK...UPPER ST. CLAIR...SCOTT TOWNSHIP...WHITEHALL...
ROBINSON TOWNSHIP...CECIL-BISHOP...BRENTWOOD...DORMONT...BELLEVUE...
CASTLE SHANNON...CARNEGIE...KENNEDY TOWNSHIP...STOWE TOWNSHIP...
MCKEES ROCKS...CRAFTON AND CORAOPOLIS.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
  INTERSTATE 79 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 70...AND
  BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 48 AND 49.

  INTERSTATE 376 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 50 AND 69.

LAT...LON 4022 8037 4039 8052 4061 8014 4037 7997
TIME...MOT...LOC 2340Z 240DEG 22KT 4036 8038

$$
34


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Our strange local micro climate is at it again.  Last few days we've had the storms dissolve before hitting us; same case today, then they redeveloped to our East.  I don't have much hope for this afternoon even though we maintain a "slight" risk advisory.

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Definitely looks like one of the hotter stretches of weather moving in, especially in the last couple of years especially if we manage to get into the low to mid 90s plus heat indices.

 

On 7/18/2016 at 11:41 PM, Mailman said:

Feels like it's been years since I logged into this forum last.  Pretty fun warm-up headed this way at the end of the week and into the weekend.  Heat indices looking to go over 100.  

bchi_day5.gif&op=noop

 

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ecial Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
304 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

PAZ021-073-231930-
WESTMORELAND-ALLEGHENY-
304 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...A THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ALLEGHENY AND WEST
CENTRAL WESTMORELAND COUNTIES...

AT 304 PM EDT...A  THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BRENTWOOD...OR NEAR
BETHEL PARK...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PITTSBURGH...BETHEL PARK...MCKEESPORT...WEST MIFFLIN...BALDWIN...
WHITEHALL...SOUTH PARK TOWNSHIP...MUNHALL...JEFFERSON HILLS...
BRENTWOOD...PLEASANT HILLS...WHITE OAK...CLAIRTON...DUQUESNE...
GLASSPORT...IRWIN...WEST NEWTON...LIBERTY...PORT VUE AND DRAVOSBURG.

THIS INCLUDES  PENNSYLVANIA TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 68 AND 71.

LAT...LON 4034 8002 4040 7997 4029 7961 4016 7980
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 310DEG 22KT 4035 7996

$$

24


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 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN PA...SRN NJ...DE...MD...DC...NRN VA...NRN/ERN
   WV...EXTREME ERN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 231834Z - 232100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
   NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1830Z...A GRADUALLY DEEPENING CU FIELD IS EVIDENT ON
   VIS IMAGERY ACROSS ERN OH INTO WRN/CNTRL PA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
   WEAK COLD FRONT...WITH ATTEMPTS AT INITIATION NOTED NEAR AND EAST OF
   PITTSBURGH. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS LARGELY ABSENT ACROSS THIS
   REGION...OTHER THAN PERHAPS THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A VORT MAX
   CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
   WEAK...SO COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED STRONG HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 

   LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
   AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT...WHILE NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW IS SUFFICIENT FOR
   25-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
   STORM STRUCTURES WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF
   THE SEVERE THREAT COMPARED TO WHAT NORMALLY WOULD BE SUPPORTED BY
   THE INSTABILITY/SHEAR COMBINATION...BUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAVORABLE
   DCAPE. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT ANTICIPATED.

   ..DEAN/WEISS.. 07/23/2016
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It's a hot one out there today.  Decided it would be a great idea to golf - was drenched after 15 minutes or so.

Severe threats really underperforming this year.  Looks like there's a chance we may get something later, but all we got yesterday was a rain shower.  Not much rain recently overall.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
433 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PITTSBURGH HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHERN ALLEGHENY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...
  SOUTHWESTERN WESTMORELAND COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 433 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  GASTONVILLE... MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
           TO TREES AND POWER LINES...RESULTING IN SOME POWER
           OUTAGES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MONESSEN...CALIFORNIA...DONORA...MONONGAHELA...CHARLEROI...
  BENTLEYVILLE...PERRYOPOLIS...NEW EAGLE...NORTH BELLE VERNON...
  WICKERHAM MANOR-FISHER...BAIDLAND...NORTH CHARLEROI...SPEERS...
  BELLE VERNON...ELLSWORTH...LYNNWOOD-PRICEDALE...WEST BROWNSVILLE...
  ROSCOE...FAYETTE CITY AND NEWELL.

THIS INCLUDES  INTERSTATE 70 IN PENNSYLVANIA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 31
AND 43.
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FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

PAC003-125-129-232315-
/O.CON.KPBZ.FA.W.0006.000000T0000Z-160723T2315Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WASHINGTON PA-ALLEGHENY PA-WESTMORELAND PA-
635 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL WASHINGTON...SOUTH CENTRAL ALLEGHENY AND WESTERN WESTMORELAND
COUNTIES...

AT 634 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED ADDITIONAL SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE MOVING INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
BETHEL PARK...MCMURRAY...GASTONVILLE...UPPER ST. CLAIR...
SOUTH PARK TOWNSHIP...JEFFERSON HILLS...MONESSEN...DONORA...
MONONGAHELA...CHARLEROI...NEW EAGLE...NORTH BELLE VERNON...
WICKERHAM MANOR-FISHER...BAIDLAND...NORTH CHARLEROI...SPEERS...
LYNNWOOD-PRICEDALE AND FINLEYVILLE.

LAT...LON 4013 7978 4013 7990 4028 8007 4032 8010
      4033 8002 4027 7993 4023 7982 4014 7978

$$

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