Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 best one ever ... Dec 1992... we had some 2.5" of rain at UML then 20" after the dramatic flip - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 best one ever ... Dec 1992... we had some 2.5" of rain at UML then 20" after the dramatic flip - I don't recall the rain at all there but I definitely recall the snow... made the walk to the liquor store interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 I don't recall the rain at all there but I definitely recall the snow... made the walk to the liquor store interesting oh it rained sideways with gusts at 38 F all afternoon ... i know, i had to walk the bridge at university ave. in fact, big jungle drops were probably cats paws for a number of hours before we abruptly flipped to blinding paste around 8:30 that evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 no signs of spring on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Is early next week's system rain for SNE? I am 100% out of the loop with meetings all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 Is early next week's system rain for SNE? I am 100% out of the loop with meetings all day Most models have it as rain (well really a FROPA with a couple showers)...but some do have it far enough south for snow. I personally like the setup behind that for mid or late week....looks like a lot of players would be on the field for a good event. Long ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2016 Share Posted February 22, 2016 no signs of spring on the EPS Nope. Has below normal Hghts all the way until the end of the run. Probably a couple visits from the PV in March. Being subjective here going off the eps the blocking is further north which in return allows the PV to be further north so we run the risks of cutters with the ridge on the west coast. That's just verbatim obviously it can change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 6z GEFS temp anomaly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 if I'm not mistaken, that's a pretty good look on gefs in the mid to long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fair warning ... this pattern is deeply saddled with potential over the next 2 weeks. Then, I wouldn't hang up winter as a fast speedy retreat and blazing early warmth setting in, either.. Too much indication emerging for a double A north Pacific flow type ... which typically directly leads to a -EPO... in fact the two cannot really be disconnected, but won't get into that here. Anyway, before all that happens, the fair caution is not to hone on any one event/feature in any guidance. They seem to be so over-burdened with that potential that they are flipping out and going bonkers over every stupid permutation in the flow. I keep seeing every model chart out a new storm, in a different time and space, both within their own run to run discontinuous nightmare in performance, but relative to one another at that ...making any hope of determinism elevate to even more terrifyingly abysmal states. Yet the frustration is that this flow could at any time bring society to it's knees. word ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fair warning ... this pattern is deeply saddled with potential over the next 2 weeks. Then, I wouldn't hang up winter as a fast speedy retreat and blazing early warmth setting in, either.. Too much indication emerging for a double A north Pacific flow type ... which typically directly leads to a -EPO... in fact the two cannot really be disconnected, but won't get into that here. Anyway, before all that happens, the fair caution is not to hone on any one event/feature in any guidance. They seem to be so over-burdened with that potential that they are flipping out and going bonkers over every stupid permutation in the flow. I keep seeing every model chart out a new storm, in a different time and space, both within their own run to run discontinuous nightmare in performance, but relative to one another at that ...making any hope of determinism elevate to even more terrifyingly abysmal states. Yet the frustration is that this flow could at any time bring society to it's knees. word ! Talk dirty to me big boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Fair warning ... this pattern is deeply saddled with potential over the next 2 weeks. Then, I wouldn't hang up winter as a fast speedy retreat and blazing early warmth setting in, either.. Too much indication emerging for a double A north Pacific flow type ... which typically directly leads to a -EPO... in fact the two cannot really be disconnected, but won't get into that here. Anyway, before all that happens, the fair caution is not to hone on any one event/feature in any guidance. They seem to be so over-burdened with that potential that they are flipping out and going bonkers over every stupid permutation in the flow. I keep seeing every model chart out a new storm, in a different time and space, both within their own run to run discontinuous nightmare in performance, but relative to one another at that ...making any hope of determinism elevate to even more terrifyingly abysmal states. Yet the frustration is that this flow could at any time bring society to it's knees. word ! Cutter parade on GFS. However will focus on pattern and hope it turns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 @danleonard ECMWF: Op vs EPS for midweek storm threat- subtle but important differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'll still take my hacks with that ridge any day. Maybe we get skunked, but that's not a snake eyes pattern by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'll still take my hacks with that ridge any day. Maybe we get skunked, but that's not a snake eyes pattern by any means. Admittedly it is nice to see the op way north of the mean..and probably one of the farthest north of the 51 members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Admittedly it is nice to see the op way north of the mean..and probably one of the farthest north of the 51 members I'm speaking even beyond that. Too many of you are getting all emotional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I'm speaking even beyond that. Too many of you are getting all emotional. Well the weather is black and white. And we demand results. It gets emotional. Even for mets who pretend it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Well the weather is black and white. And we demand results. It gets emotional. Even for mets who pretend it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Admittedly it is nice to see the op way north of the mean..and probably one of the farthest north of the 51 members The EPS have been too progressive all season. I would rather see the OP south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The EPS have been too progressive all season. I would rather see the OP south. Flo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 Flo? I don't follow Nvmd I thought it had to do with weather. I get it, insurance commercials Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 I don't follow Nvmd I thought it had to do with weather. I get it, insurance commercials Are the EPS too progressive with the flow Flo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2016 Share Posted February 23, 2016 The EPS have been too progressive all season. I would rather see the OP south. I wouldn't. Op has been awful since the blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 500mb comparison of Jan 1st-Feb 21st 2016 versus the other super Nino years. Note that we clearly are not similar to the 72/83/98 triplet in terms of the expansive / eastward displaced GOAK vortex with low heights spreading into the Western US. Those years also featured more positive heights / +AO in the Arctic than this year. The Pacific pattern PNA/EPO wise has been very similar to 1958 of those. What prevented the deeper negative height anomalies in the East was the lack of -NAO, and a lesser magnitude -AO. However, given the 500mb progression, I certainly wouldn't say that 72/83/98 were great analogs for this year (58/65 weren't either). We have a middle ground type look. Good Pacific, OK Arctic, and poor Atlantic yielded the very "OK" Jan-Feb temp profile of near average temperatures in the East. February 2016's 500mb anomalies will be negative over the East, but there was very little cold air at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I am officially folding up shop. Winter is ending Last accumulating SNE snowfall was yesterday in my area. Cutter after cutter in March. Scooter is on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 I am officially folding up shop. Winter is ending Last accumulating SNE snowfall was yesterday in my area. Cutter after cutter in March. Scooter is on board. Agree. Maybe we get lucky with a wet snow bomb, but with no blocking (and not much cold air anyway) it's cutter city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 While we may be able to grab a snow event or two, this does look like a high likelyhood of storm tracks that perhaps aren't kind to SNE. We have a -EPO, but the pattern is such that with zero blocking and PV far north, any storm can dig and rip northeast up or just inland of the East Coast. We'll need a well timed s/w to undercut the ridging out in western Canada, along with confluence to our north. Something like the euro op would work, but not confident in that solution verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 While we may be able to grab a snow event or two, this does look like a high likelyhood of storm tracks that perhaps aren't kind to SNE. We have a -EPO, but the pattern is such that with zero blocking and PV far north, any storm can dig and rip northeast up or just inland of the East Coast. We'll need a well timed s/w to undercut the ridging out in western Canada, along with confluence to our north. Something like the euro op would work, but not confident in that solution verbatim. It's too bad, what a waste of high QPF storms for us. Also odd for a nino-storm track is usually up the coast or across the south and out to sea off OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 While we may be able to grab a snow event or two, this does look like a high likelyhood of storm tracks that perhaps aren't kind to SNE. We have a -EPO, but the pattern is such that with zero blocking and PV far north, any storm can dig and rip northeast up or just inland of the East Coast. We'll need a well timed s/w to undercut the ridging out in western Canada, along with confluence to our north. Something like the euro op would work, but not confident in that solution verbatim. At least Will won't have to worry about getting stuck on the way to the hospital when the baby is born in a few weeks. Dry highways and 50's will guide them in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 24, 2016 Share Posted February 24, 2016 At least Will won't have to worry about getting stuck on the way to the hospital when the baby is born in a few weeks. Dry highways and 50's will guide them in Wow. I didn't even know. Big time Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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