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March 2016 Pattern


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Yeah, no big snow. But not every event will be perfectly forecast, and that wasn't the point of my discussion. I think some around here latch onto the model of the day/week/month and take that as truth. In the extended for every correct forecast from the GEFS, it's just as likely to be wildly off with its next forecast. I'll take my chances with the EPS over the others if I had to pick one.

 

It's 35 and RA at GNR right now, 36 on top of the 3,600 foot Bald Mountain. We're only a couple degrees from a blue bomb. I wouldn't call that a colossal bust. 

Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens

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I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes.

There is the old saying. Green Christmas, white Easter. Worked last year and we certainly had the green Christmas this year so....
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I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes.

This is the special time of year where you only have to shovel for 6"+

 

No need to meticulously shape driveway snowbanks at this late juncture in the season - although we all know someone who would probably still do so.

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Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens

 

I can't speak to modeling over the last week sadly (or not). I've been off since the 4th, and spent the weekend subsisting off nothing but weather talks, IPAs, and doughboys from Esperanto's.

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Made a birdie too i see. Good times

 

Gotta take advantage of Morch when it makes an appearance.

 

post-44-0-81980300-1457646904_thumb.png

 

As far back as Saturday models were coming around to a pretty good overperforming warmth signal. This +2 SD probably translates closer to a once every two year kind of event for our area. The size of that warm anomaly definitely grew as we approached zero hour too.

 

It's no wonder ASH went mid 70s. Climo FTL.

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Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens

Yeah the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all had a couple runs of plowable snow over a large portion of CNE/NNE at 84-96 hours. The Euro had like three in a row of 8-12" for the Lakes Region.

It did fit the tenor of the season though haha. Models dangling a carrot for a couple days before they eat the carrot and piss it out as rain.

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Nothing wrong with 50s to around 60 at times which it looks like it will be for the next 7-10 days.

Exactly. And 50's to around 60 is what we've basically had most of the winter season...except for short periods of cold shot's here and there.  

 

Tons of 50 plus degree days this winter, and quite a few 60 degree days as well.

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Won't be 50s Mon-Wed next week. Maybe we warm up a day or two on Thursday or Friday and then cool off. 

I'll admit...I cheated and just quickly peaked at MEX. 50s up here every day except Mon. Wed doesn't look too bad between systems with toasty mid levels. It's back to typical early spring doldrums though. Too warm for snow, but only warm enough to be doing the typical spring yardwork.

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I'll admit...I cheated and just quickly peaked at MEX. 50s up here every day except Mon. Wed doesn't look too bad between systems with toasty mid levels. It's back to typical early spring doldrums though. Too warm for snow, but only warm enough to be doing the typical spring yardwork.

 

This weekend will be great. Pick up your debris before the Day 10 Euro knocks all your trees over. 

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