Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Yeah, no big snow. But not every event will be perfectly forecast, and that wasn't the point of my discussion. I think some around here latch onto the model of the day/week/month and take that as truth. In the extended for every correct forecast from the GEFS, it's just as likely to be wildly off with its next forecast. I'll take my chances with the EPS over the others if I had to pick one. It's 35 and RA at GNR right now, 36 on top of the 3,600 foot Bald Mountain. We're only a couple degrees from a blue bomb. I wouldn't call that a colossal bust. Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes. There is the old saying. Green Christmas, white Easter. Worked last year and we certainly had the green Christmas this year so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 I'm dreaming of a white Easter.....bunnies just buried and suffocated, Easter egg hunts called off everywhere.....folks in their Sunday-best out shoveling, and cursing their latitude....yes. This is the special time of year where you only have to shovel for 6"+ No need to meticulously shape driveway snowbanks at this late juncture in the season - although we all know someone who would probably still do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens I can't speak to modeling over the last week sadly (or not). I've been off since the 4th, and spent the weekend subsisting off nothing but weather talks, IPAs, and doughboys from Esperanto's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 I can't speak to modeling over the last week sadly (or not). I've been off since the 4th, and spent the weekend subsisting off nothing but weather talks, IPAs, and doughboys from Esperanto's. Made a birdie too i see. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Made a birdie too i see. Good times Gotta take advantage of Morch when it makes an appearance. As far back as Saturday models were coming around to a pretty good overperforming warmth signal. This +2 SD probably translates closer to a once every two year kind of event for our area. The size of that warm anomaly definitely grew as we approached zero hour too. It's no wonder ASH went mid 70s. Climo FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 10, 2016 Share Posted March 10, 2016 Oh I agree but that was a pretty large area of plowable warning level snow down to the coast on models at 96 from 3/7 a 5-8 degree difference at 850 as modeled and as reality. That was a pretty good bust 4 days out by all models and Ens Yeah the Euro, GFS, and GGEM all had a couple runs of plowable snow over a large portion of CNE/NNE at 84-96 hours. The Euro had like three in a row of 8-12" for the Lakes Region. It did fit the tenor of the season though haha. Models dangling a carrot for a couple days before they eat the carrot and piss it out as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Man the deep south is going to see record totals. This low driving up the gulf moisture with many spring months to go. I know it is spring but this is still an anomalous low. Lots of flooding rescues right now with a lot of rain still on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Party is over after this weekend for any extended MORCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Party is over after this weekend for any extended MORCH. Nothing wrong with 50s to around 60 at times which it looks like it will be for the next 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Nothing wrong with 50s to around 60 at times which it looks like it will be for the next 7-10 days. Exactly. And 50's to around 60 is what we've basically had most of the winter season...except for short periods of cold shot's here and there. Tons of 50 plus degree days this winter, and quite a few 60 degree days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Party is over after this weekend for any extended MORCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Nothing wrong with 50s to around 60 at times which it looks like it will be for the next 7-10 days. Yeah...only 10F above normal instead of 30F+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Yeah...only 10F above normal instead of 30F+. departures have been obscene the last couple days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Won't be 50s Mon-Wed next week. Maybe we warm up a day or two on Thursday or Friday and then cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Won't be 50s Mon-Wed next week. Maybe we warm up a day or two on Thursday or Friday and then cool off. Disagree. Monday yes but Tues/Wed looks like 50s to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Disagree. Monday yes but Tues/Wed looks like 50s to near 60. No way. With NE winds? Wed you could argue maybe on the s coast depending on that front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Won't be 50s Mon-Wed next week. Maybe we warm up a day or two on Thursday or Friday and then cool off. I'll admit...I cheated and just quickly peaked at MEX. 50s up here every day except Mon. Wed doesn't look too bad between systems with toasty mid levels. It's back to typical early spring doldrums though. Too warm for snow, but only warm enough to be doing the typical spring yardwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 I'll admit...I cheated and just quickly peaked at MEX. 50s up here every day except Mon. Wed doesn't look too bad between systems with toasty mid levels. It's back to typical early spring doldrums though. Too warm for snow, but only warm enough to be doing the typical spring yardwork. This weekend will be great. Pick up your debris before the Day 10 Euro knocks all your trees over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Won't be 50s Mon-Wed next week. Maybe we warm up a day or two on Thursday or Friday and then cool off. Winter comes back for a short time next weekend with a possible storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 No way. With NE winds? Wed you could argue maybe on the s coast depending on that front. Front lifts out allowing southern areas to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 This weekend will be great. Pick up your debris before the Day 10 Euro knocks all your trees over. Kevin approved, power killing, tree destroying, babies carried away into the clouds type of windstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Kevin approved, power killing, tree destroying, babies carried away into the clouds type of windstorm? Dendrite hovering in the corner of his house as paste+ knocks over his trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 departures have been obscene the last couple days. That cold first week is a distant memory now. Crazy how it got erased so quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Turning into another beautiful torch day. Just about 60F now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Dendrite hovering in the corner of his house as paste+ knocks over his trees. ohhh, that kind of deal. Sounds like something for northern peeps to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 The worry in the spring is always someone that lives on the water. NE winds and sun with those 850's are 55-62 interior SNE. Still way way AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Noyes has 55-60 everyday thru day 10 except Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Noyes has 55-60 everyday thru day 10 except Monday Yeah I'll take the under for you and me on Mon-Tues..maybe even Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 11, 2016 Share Posted March 11, 2016 Yeah I'll take the under for you and me on Mon-Tues..maybe even Wednesday.Ryans got 54 Tues and 63 Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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