Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Do mets think Feb finishes AN or BN? Based on guidance it seems avg out AN rest of months , so prob + 1 to +2 NYC to BOS I really wonder what non Mets think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I really wonder what non Mets think.Ask if you're unsure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 So regardless of next week, the storms keep coming. I'm still interested through mid March, the way things look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Have we ever seen a positive PNA, positive AO and Negative NAO pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Have we ever seen a positive PNA, positive AO and Negative NAO pattern?Did you mean to say +PNA, -AO, +NAO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Did you mean to say +PNA, -AO, +NAO? I just never saw a set up like -pna +ao and - NAO before and wondered if it was possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I just never saw a set up like -pna +ao and - NAO before and wondered if it was possible. Late December 2008 and early January 2009 had a -NAO/+AO pattern....the two are often in the same sign since they share domain space. So it is not overly common to have them at opposite signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I just never saw a set up like -pna +ao and - NAO before and wondered if it was possible. We have had -PNA/-NAO looks. 10-11 had that for a time.and many of our winters in the 60s did too. A +PNA/+AO/-NAO is hard to do. However, we got away with a +PNA/+AO the previous two winters. It's definitely a much dicier setup because it can cause cutters to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Thanks all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Epic battle between what the teleconnectors argument for what the pattern should look like ... versus what the operational runs are actually showing, both in the blended mean, and trends therein... Ceaselessly and unrelentingly in defiance of their own ensemble derived mass-fields. I just don't see how the PNA is going to be that enormous, with such an incredilble supporting cast as a near record (albeit extinguishing) warm ENSO, working in tandem with a powerful phase 7 MJO propagation, and the operationals succeed in pulling off a pedestrian western N/A ridge... That, in concert with a season-long issue with weird spacing/destructive damping of wave tendency, is making what 'should have been' 2015-2016's finest redemption - a really terrific story - look like the greatest loss of potential in the history of this solar system. Jupiter doesn't fumble around and f up stream dynamics like this... ha! Anyway, it may in fact be the disruptive wave spacing that is effecting the western ridge. I'm seeing like 3.5 S/W getting ejected through the ridge before that major amplitude next mid week sets in ... and every time that happens, that strains the models to maintain enough residual ridging to help dig features down stream. I don't see any runs that are not correctable in that regard, either... but, something is definitely going against the grain of the teleconnectors in all this.. fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 19, 2016 Author Share Posted February 19, 2016 Epic battle between what the teleconnectors argument for what the pattern should look like ... versus what the operational runs are actually showing, both in the blended mean, and trends therein... Ceaselessly and unrelentingly in defiance of their own ensemble derived mass-fields. I just don't see how the PNA is going to be that enormous, with such an incredilble supporting cast as a near record (albeit extinguishing) warm ENSO, working in tandem with a powerful phase 7 MJO propagation, and the operationals succeed in pulling off a pedestrian western N/A ridge... That, in concert with a season-long issue with weird spacing/destructive damping of wave tendency, is making what 'should have been' 2015-2016's finest redemption - a really terrific story - look like the greatest loss of potential in the history of this solar system. Jupiter doesn't fumble around and f up stream dynamics like this... ha! Anyway, it may in fact be the disruptive wave spacing that is effecting the western ridge. I'm seeing like 3.5 S/W getting ejected through the ridge before that major amplitude next mid week sets in ... and every time that happens, that strains the models to maintain enough residual ridging to help dig features down stream. I don't see any runs that are not correctable in that regard, either... but, something is definitely going against the grain of the teleconnectors in all this.. fascinating. Sums up the entire winter quite aptly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This weekends torch will ensure the month finishes above normal from NYC on north. Next week looks normal during day and an nights with the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 This weekends torch will ensure the month finishes above normal from NYC on north. Next week looks normal during day and an nights with the storm Feb was running +8.5 thru the 11th. Then that little PV visit crashed it to only +1.4 by the 15th. Back up to +3 and will be at least +4 after Sunday. That's about where I think it will finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Feb was running +8.5 thru the 11th. Then that little PV visit crashed it to only +1.4 by the 15th. Back up to +3 and will be at least +4 after Sunday. That's about where I think it will finish. Sounds similar here. I looked a couple days ago and saw we were around +3 this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sounds similar here. I looked a couple days ago and saw we were around +3 this month. Def a bit of a gradient...ORH is sitting at -1.0 on the month right now. Though I don't think we'll hold onto negative by the 29th. If we avoid a cutter though next week, then I'll bet we finish really close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 BDL is BN for month, but near 60 this weekend will hurt that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 BDL is BN for month, but near 60 this weekend will hurt that come on - you can come up with a more subversive spin tactic than this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 come on - you can come up with a more subversive spin tactic than this ... Huh? bare ground, downsloping winds..850's..no vegetation valleys and coast will be 55-60..especially Sunday Look at numbers out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Huh? bare ground, downsloping winds..850's..no vegetation valleys and coast will be 55-60..especially Sunday Look at numbers out west now ur backpeddling .... '55-60' is different tact than !60! and you either know that, or believe the bs you serve - i'm sure by this time tomorrow it'll be 50s when most areas nick 51 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 now ur backpeddling .... '55-60' is different tact than !60! and you either know that, or believe the bs you serve - i'm sure by this time tomorrow it'll be 50s when most areas nick 51 ... Place a bet? I say some favored locales at a minimum hit 55 this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I standby my comment after whatever happens next week. It's still a nice look on guidance. EC ensembles have a very anomalous PNA/EPO ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I standby my comment after whatever happens next week. It's still a nice look on guidance. EC ensembles have a very anomalous PNA/EPO ridge. Joe D and Fisher talking early spring, golf and not impressed with snow chances on Tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Joe D and Fisher talking early spring, golf and not impressed with snow chances on Tweet Well depends. Are you looking at the big picture or not? Naturally we are getting warmer with climo, but I'm looking at the big picture. Whether or not we get anything meaningful is something nobody can say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's still a winter pattern on the Euro ensembles...increasing sun angle, warm car interiors, and crocuses on south facing flower beds already noted before they get posted. Huge meridional flow from the arctic, so there's going to be winter wx chances and there's going to be plenty of cold nearby...sometimes probably giving us an arctic shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's still a winter pattern on the Euro ensembles...increasing sun angle, warm car interiors, and crocuses on south facing flower beds already noted before they get posted. Huge meridional flow from the arctic, so there's going to be winter wx chances and there's going to be plenty of cold nearby...sometimes probably giving us an arctic shot. Yeah all that and emotions aside, that's a good look. I'll take it any day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 I standby my comment after whatever happens next week. It's still a nice look on guidance. EC ensembles have a very anomalous PNA/EPO ridge. For your own appeasement ... I don't think that's in contention As I've hammered the last ... three months it seems, the operationals seem to fight the teleconnectors every inch of the way. When we speak of "EPS" ...well, that's the roundabout way of discussing the Euro -based tele's... anyway, the GEFs -vs- GFS is no different. Having said that, the GFS actually for the first time on this 12z run has got a huge -EPO ridge up there... so may, at last, we'll get some production out of these signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 For your own appeasement ... I don't think that's in contention As I've hammered the last ... three months it seems, the operationals seem to fight the teleconnectors every inch of the way. When we speak of "EPS" ...well, that's the roundabout way of discussing the Euro -based tele's... anyway, the GEFs -vs- GFS is no different. Having said that, the GFS actually for the first time on this 12z run has got a huge -EPO ridge up there... so may, at last, we'll get some production out of these signals. Part of the issue is getting more of a PNA ridge vs -EPO because as you know, -EPO can lead to cutters. All I am saying is that I'll take my chances with what is shown. Whether or not we continue to get crap results is something that's beyond our control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 That's still a winter pattern on the Euro ensembles...increasing sun angle, warm car interiors, and crocuses on south facing flower beds already noted before they get posted. Huge meridional flow from the arctic, so there's going to be winter wx chances and there's going to be plenty of cold nearby...sometimes probably giving us an arctic shot. yea not a hint of spring on those ENS, Joe D and Fisher need to put the clubs away along with the shot glasses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Part of the issue is getting more of a PNA ridge vs -EPO because as you know, -EPO can lead to cutters. All I am saying is that I'll take my chances with what is shown. Whether or not we continue to get crap results is something that's beyond our control. Right - the table is set; hopefully the chef doesn't serve steaming piles of spiced cat schit - I was just thinking in mind while flipping the pages of this deep anal pounding, 18z GFS run ... just how precisely and surgically these runs are really attacking specifically snow. We have a strong PNA, MJO and even a falling AO ...all on our side. And given that late middle range "day after tomorrow" vortex up there in eastern Canada, we'll likely get our period of correlated cold. But, no snow... So, the cold works out, as does the archembaultish precip event, but hell seems to fury the cosmos if it dare snows thru it all. Frankly I'm good with it. I really did pull the plug on this winter weeks ago when I ...sort of intuitively felt it would do this to the bitter end back whence. Not taking any credit - but it was a trend that was hard to really get my head around. At this point .. it may very well bring the hopefuls something to celebrate down the stretch; but I think i'd be surprised if it did at this point. It may very well be the first time in my met life that I saw this type of tele's signal fail with such panache - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 The tellies do look nice coming up so still hope for something. Darn it I just need 3 inches to meet seasonal average! That drop in the AO as listed on the GFS is great. Does anyone have the eps ao forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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