Randy4Confluence Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Thank god. I've switched teams.....torch away. I suspect there will be one more legit storm chance mid/late month... and we'll have you back in action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 7, 2016 Share Posted March 7, 2016 Thank god. I've switched teams...... your old girlfriends aren't surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Thank god. I've switched teams.....torch away. .... well, impetus is on spring variability... The panache of the model runs seems to change, run to run... "appeals" cooler, no wait! ...that should actually be warmer at this time of year and oops - here comes a cut-off and cool shot... rinse repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 The front will have a fight on its hands for Thursday as that ULL over the south really pumps up the srly flow aloft, but it will lose out to high pressure building in from the north, later Thursday and/or Friday. Reminds me of that which will never be forgotten, actually... and that is, once there is a cool air mass situated lower in the troposphere than 2,500 feet, lodged east of the Berkshires and west of the virtual wall that is the oceanic boundary layer to the east, that really serves as a veritable bowl in which it is very difficult to change that air mass, as it is protected on all sides by the boundary that is imposed by the elevations N-W and the cold ocean S-E.. The standard S wind of 22 kts sustained in the 850 mb level ... unless that index finger mechanical off-setting power is introduced, that air mass may as well be stranded like the San Fernando Valley out in California. I've actually seen BD's come in mid April and lay down their cold slab of saturated Gulf Of Maine vomit right slammed up against the Berks, and then had two distinct synoptic evolutions roll over top ... as though the atmosphere forgot we exist down here in the "bowl". ALB ...soars 80 or more, while FIT's 49 in slate gray suicide watch. Ah yes ... ! Welcome to New England in the spring: the great big bowl of schit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Euro ensembles are still advertising some pretty big changes around and after the 20th. That is really cold stuff in Canada....it filters some of it down to us after the 20th...how much remains to be seen and if any associated storminess comes with it. The mean trough is centered barely to our west around that time which would be more conducive to a coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Euro ensembles are still advertising some pretty big changes around and after the 20th. That is really cold stuff in Canada....it filters some of it down to us after the 20th...how much remains to be seen and if any associated storminess comes with it. The mean trough is centered barely to our west around that time which would be more conducive to a coastal storm.It looks as if an AK block brings some cold air into Canada as a ridge simultaneously builds out west. Probably the last shot for the coastal plain. We have seen quite a few snowfalls around the equinox so this wouldn't be a big surprise. 2004 comes to mind, especially, as well as the twin blockbusters in 1958. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Euro ensembles are still advertising some pretty big changes around and after the 20th. That is really cold stuff in Canada....it filters some of it down to us after the 20th...how much remains to be seen and if any associated storminess comes with it. The mean trough is centered barely to our west around that time which would be more conducive to a coastal storm. Gfs is starting to show a pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 8, 2016 Share Posted March 8, 2016 Euro ensembles are still advertising some pretty big changes around and after the 20th. That is really cold stuff in Canada....it filters some of it down to us after the 20th...how much remains to be seen and if any associated storminess comes with it. The mean trough is centered barely to our west around that time which would be more conducive to a coastal storm. Racing season ... Seems every year at some point or the other in spring the ensembles team up and forget what's going on - ha. GEFs have a -EPO too so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thomasnh Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Wow flew from MHT to Detroit and no snow at all, some lakes still have ice in NH, VT, and upstate NY. Never have seen that for the last 10 years. The Great Lakes are also free of ice just freaky. Really hope we can get some March snow storms though doesn't look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 You mean like the usual spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Well in the subtitle for this thread it said do or die for NNE/CNE/Interior SNE. I think we have our answer, and it is die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Gfs is starting to show a pattern change you gotta be careful after March 1st ... particularly April 1st, wrt to modeling "pattern changes" this is the red-herring time of the year (falseness) ... it happens somewhat in the autumn, as well, but not nearly as often in the spring where/when the models increase variability in their run to run depictions. what sometimes seems like a guard changing ends up being a coffee break ... or, if it gets late enough, the pattern changes but to what ? the sun comes along and starts obliterating gradients and modulating everything toward non-events in general (but that's more for April..). case in point ... up until last night the GEFs-derived NAO was clad negative now it it's only negative for a 4 or 5 days before flipping back positive. whether that's the sun or not (and one couldn't say for sure just on the surface) it's definitely typical in the spring even for the teleconnectors to flip signs rather stochastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 you gotta kinda also go with that season's tenor as whole, too... last year, ...and the year before for that matter .. we were gifted by an obscenely persistent -EPO of sufficient magnitude as to almost singularly control the destiny of our meteorology much of the winter and that lasted deep into the spring ...real deep actually... this year, we're in a whole different galaxy. we really ( i feel) seem to be on the cusp of the models going bonkers trying to deal with spring's onset here. we're opening our temperature tendencies to a combination of local time scale perturbation events combined with background climate change (and yes! there is a reason why the base-line state all over the planet (no exaggeration) is always positive ) we're no different locally ... and in the absence of caa, someone has to pay for global warming here too, eventually. what the means is, without offset cool sourcing, the temp will always be some decimals or more warmer than the 30-year mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 you gotta be careful after March 1st ... particularly April 1st, wrt to modeling "pattern changes" this is the red-herring time of the year (falseness) ... it happens somewhat in the autumn, as well, but not nearly as often in the spring where/when the models increase variability in their run to run depictions. what sometimes seems like a guard changing ends up being a coffee break ... or, if it gets late enough, the pattern changes but to what ? the sun comes along and starts obliterating gradients and modulating everything toward non-events in general (but that's more for April..). case in point ... up until last night the GEFs-derived NAO was clad negative now it it's only negative for a 4 or 5 days before flipping back positive. whether that's the sun or not (and one couldn't say for sure just on the surface) it's definitely typical in the spring even for the teleconnectors to flip signs rather stochastic. and the "Cold" or cool never moves up in time--it's always 10-12 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 And lol at those cold shots and threats the EPS showed the last few days for those that thought more snow coming. Completely lost that nonsense and the weeklies were torched thru week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 And lol at those cold shots and threats the EPS showed the last few days for those that thought more snow coming. Completely lost that nonsense and the weeklies were torched thru week 4 The Euro ensembles look the same as they have the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I thought they looked warmer overall than the 12z run yesterday. Plus ECMWF folks said the warm SST's are really skewing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I thought they looked warmer overall than the 12z run yesterday. Plus ECMWF folks said the warm SST's are really skewing them If anything, they were slightly colder in NE toggling between the end of yesterday's 12z run and the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 I thought they looked warmer overall than the 12z run yesterday. Plus ECMWF folks said the warm SST's are really skewing them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Ryan listed it yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 torchy 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 It is amazing that after over a decade on the forums, he still doesn't look at models but feels compelled to talk about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 He was laughing about the Euro statement they issued on SST's affecting model/ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 It is amazing that after over a decade on the forums, he still doesn't look at models but feels compelled to talk about them. i think I may time my trip to Newry just about right. amazingly the GEFS try to reform the PV in Eastern Canada. Lots of signs to a flip to colder weather that week. Wish I was skiing today, epic bluebird spring day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 i think I may time my trip to Newry just about right. amazingly the GEFS try to reform the PV in Eastern Canada. Lots of signs to a flip to colder weather that week. Wish I was skiing today, epic bluebird spring day. Week of 21-25? That would definitely be a favorable looking period on the ensembles for something up there. We'll see if we can get a storm to cooperate...there will be no shortage of cold source just to our north. It would just be a matter of synoptics lining up which obviously they have been hell-bent against doing so much of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Week of 21-25? That would definitely be a favorable looking period on the ensembles for something up there. We'll see if we can get a storm to cooperate...there will be no shortage of cold source just to our north. It would just be a matter of synoptics lining up which obviously they have been hell-bent against doing so much of this winter. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 It is amazing that after over a decade on the forums, he still doesn't look at models but feels compelled to talk about them. Shame on us for letting his nonsense continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Not to steal warmista thunder on their day of gloating ... (haha) but, I think if it is going to snow again this year before the end of March the best chance for that will be between the Equinox and about 300 hours... right in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 9, 2016 Share Posted March 9, 2016 Not to steal warmista thunder on their day of gloating ... (haha) but, I think if it is going to snow again this year before the end of March the best chance for that will be between the Equinox and about 300 hours... right in there.Hope you're right with that forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.