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March 2016 Pattern

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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peteradiator

peteradiator

Posted
Posted

I know I'm not the best at keeping my posts exactly on topic

but lets focus on the next snow possibility for the month.

how long will the march torch?

Most of the best snowstorms I remember in march have a lot in common.

It would be 50 maybe even warmer one day and yet you knew that afternoon, when the storm arrived, it would be snowing.

It would snow all night. Wake up early in hopes to catch the last few bands top it off.

Then sunshine and 50.

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MJO812

MJO812

Posted
Posted

I know I'm not the best at keeping my posts exactly on topic

but lets focus on the next snow possibility for the month.

how long will the march torch?

Most of the best snowstorms I remember in march have a lot in common.

It would be 50 maybe even warmer one day and yet you knew that afternoon, when the storm arrived, it would be snowing.

It would snow all night. Wake up early in hopes to catch the last few bands top it off.

Then sunshine and 50.

Several years ago in March, I had a couple of inches of snow after a day in the upper 60s

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

Posted
Posted

Several years ago in March, I had a couple of inches of snow after a day in the upper 60s

 

In 2012 we basically had two weeks of 60s+ and still had snow after that.

 

In April 2002 I had an official heat wave and less than a week later it snowed in late April.

 

The bottom line is that you never know.  I think after the 11th things cool down a bit.  Perhaps climo, perhaps slightly above but at least not weeks and weeks of 60s and 70s like some are suggesting.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

In 2012 we basically had two weeks of 60s+ and still had snow after that.

 

In April 2002 I had an official heat wave and less than a week later it snowed in late April.

 

The bottom line is that you never know.  I think after the 11th things cool down a bit.  Perhaps climo, perhaps slightly above but at least not weeks and weeks of 60s and 70s like some are suggesting.

 

March '98. Virtual 3 day heatwave and 10" of paste where I was in NE PA just before Easter. Weird things happen in Spring.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

March will likely be AN, but 2012 is not walking through that door. JMHO.

 

I have to agree here ... Even if the global indicators were signaling something extraordinary - which they are not - you'd have to question equivalency there.  

 

2012 was almost rapture type departure.  Really a very rare, and (par for the course for this social media outlet) a very shamefully under-acknowledged result.  Oh it was given by-line wows, and impressives ...etc... but, people were more interested in "winter 2012-2013, because it's never too early" and fast putting that fantastic meteorological, and historic event in their disregarded rear-view mirrors.  

 

But most importantly .. .in order to get there again you got to dodge every plausible atmospheric bullet nature can buck shot at you, and even in the best of modeling and teleconnector times that's just really not determinable.  You have to almost wait something like that out and agog at it in hindsight.  

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

CON top 3 record highs for each March date via threadex...

 

3/1  65 in 1972  64 in 1877  60 in 1991
3/2  64 in 1874  63 in 1991  58 in 2004+
3/3  62 in 1874  60 in 1871  59 in 1964
3/4  61 in 1880  60 in 1946  59 in 1965
3/5  67 in 1880  61 in 1976  60 in 1919
3/6  64 in 1876  62 in 1894  60 in 1974
3/7  73 in 1876  66 in 1974  64 in 1871
3/8  67 in 1878  66 in 2012  66 in 1995
3/9  67 in 2000  65 in 1878  62 in 2002
3/10  72 in 1878  66 in 1871  65 in 1977
3/11  65 in 1977  65 in 1871  64 in 1967
3/12  69 in 2012  68 in 1871  63 in 1929
3/13  71 in 2012  69 in 1990  68 in 1946
3/14  74 in 2007  72 in 1946  70 in 1903
3/15  68 in 1990  68 in 1945  64 in 1870
3/16  68 in 2000  67 in 1935  63 in 1927
3/17  73 in 1990  66 in 1936  64 in 2010+
3/18  81 in 2012  67 in 2011  64 in 1966+
3/19  81 in 2012  72 in 1903  70 in 1894
3/20  81 in 2012  77 in 1903  70 in 2010+
3/21  83 in 2012  79 in 1921  71 in 1913
3/22  84 in 2012  74 in 1946  72 in 1938
3/23  80 in 1938  73 in 1979  72 in 2012
3/24  69 in 1928  69 in 1913  67 in 1920
3/25  73 in 1913  73 in 1910  70 in 1963+
3/26  74 in 1949  74 in 1945  73 in 1986
3/27  76 in 1998  73 in 1945  70 in 1993
3/28  86 in 1998  82 in 1945  82 in 1921
3/29  85 in 1946  83 in 1945  76 in 1981
3/30  85 in 1977  83 in 1998  80 in 1986
3/31  89 in 1998  74 in 2006  69 in 1999

 

Good luck topping that at a place with 150 years of record keeping.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted

CON top 3 record highs for each March date via threadex...

 

3/1  65 in 1972  64 in 1877  60 in 1991

3/2  64 in 1874  63 in 1991  58 in 2004+

3/3  62 in 1874  60 in 1871  59 in 1964

3/4  61 in 1880  60 in 1946  59 in 1965

3/5  67 in 1880  61 in 1976  60 in 1919

3/6  64 in 1876  62 in 1894  60 in 1974

3/7  73 in 1876  66 in 1974  64 in 1871

3/8  67 in 1878  66 in 2012  66 in 1995

3/9  67 in 2000  65 in 1878  62 in 2002

3/10  72 in 1878  66 in 1871  65 in 1977

3/11  65 in 1977  65 in 1871  64 in 1967

3/12  69 in 2012  68 in 1871  63 in 1929

3/13  71 in 2012  69 in 1990  68 in 1946

3/14  74 in 2007  72 in 1946  70 in 1903

3/15  68 in 1990  68 in 1945  64 in 1870

3/16  68 in 2000  67 in 1935  63 in 1927

3/17  73 in 1990  66 in 1936  64 in 2010+

3/18  81 in 2012  67 in 2011  64 in 1966+

3/19  81 in 2012  72 in 1903  70 in 1894

3/20  81 in 2012  77 in 1903  70 in 2010+

3/21  83 in 2012  79 in 1921  71 in 1913

3/22  84 in 2012  74 in 1946  72 in 1938

3/23  80 in 1938  73 in 1979  72 in 2012

3/24  69 in 1928  69 in 1913  67 in 1920

3/25  73 in 1913  73 in 1910  70 in 1963+

3/26  74 in 1949  74 in 1945  73 in 1986

3/27  76 in 1998  73 in 1945  70 in 1993

3/28  86 in 1998  82 in 1945  82 in 1921

3/29  85 in 1946  83 in 1945  76 in 1981

3/30  85 in 1977  83 in 1998  80 in 1986

3/31  89 in 1998  74 in 2006  69 in 1999

 

Good luck topping that at a place with 150 years of record keeping.

The 1870's had some warm shots

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I like the 74 in 2007 right before the St. Patty's Day storm....that was a cold storm too.

 

I remember 3 pm ...pulled up in front of a place to make copies of some documents and noticing snow blowing off the roof and thinking damn is that hard to do this late in the year. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

yeah... GFS has been going out of its way to buck tele trends and other guidance suggestions and trying to be the deterministic hero in matters all season...  Maybe now that the season's changing? 

 

we'll see.  i think it "might" be a little over cooked with the spatial size and depth of the SPV in the western Maritimes. but then i noticed the CDC NAO has gone strongly positive and that kind of reminds me of 1993-1994 set up where the NAO positive back sw and got us anti-correlated. 

 

well, it's probably all moot anyway for d10/12 ... 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

They are very warm aside from brief mild down next weekend .I recall last Fri before you left for skiing you posted take em down and that Sun/ Mon warmth of 50's/60's was way overdone . Interesting

 

They are very warm aside from brief mild down next weekend .I recall last Fri before you left for skiing you posted take em down and that Sun/ Mon warmth of 50's/60's was way overdone . Interesting

 

Are you starting up the other bi-polar side of you already? It's going to be a long warm season.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted

This winter has had so many days in the upper 50's, and low 60's, that a couple days of 65 in Early March isn't any big warm up compared to what we've had all winter.  

 

Sure it's way above normal, but in a winter where temps have been just like that, it's not that big of a deal imo.

 

If we got into the low to mid 70's I'd have to say that would be impressive for early March for sure.  

 

Last year at this time if we popped into the low to mid 60's it would be a huge deal, but not this year.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

This winter has had so many days in the upper 50's, and low 60's, that a couple days of 65 in Early March isn't any big warm up compared to what we've had all winter.  

 

Sure it's way above normal, but in a winter where temps have been just like that, it's not that big of a deal imo.

 

If we got into the low to mid 70's I'd have to say that would be impressive for early March for sure.  

 

Last year at this time if we popped into the low to mid 60's it would be a huge deal, but not this year.

The modeling is near record breaking for next Wednesday. +10C at H85, west flow, and bare ground at BDL should equate to 70F+ in the northern valley.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

If we mixed to 850 on the GFS..probably near 80. GFS wasn't that mixy though.

They always seem to underestimate the mixing in early spring with a westerly component and bare ground. We'll see....it's still 5-6 days away. The GFS is already showing 65-70F at 2m in E MA away from the shore.

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