JC-CT Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ensemble and weeklies. Nothing screams snow to me, but the tendency to get weird blocky patterns mid to late March leads to those unexpected blue bombs...especially higher up.Yup. The GEFS have seemed to hint at a relaxation of the EC ridge at the end of the last few runs, but as typical it is probably trying to rush it. When that happens something could pop. Doesn't have to be white of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ensemble and weeklies. Nothing screams snow to me, but the tendency to get weird blocky patterns mid to late March leads to those unexpected blue bombs...especially higher up. Yeah it looks very cut-offy. The torch also has some red flags. Some of these runs have shown HP to our north or northeast. SYR and AVP torch on that setup while we stay 20-25F colder. The euro scenario though would give us brilliant spring for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah it looks very cut-offy. The torch also has some red flags. Some of these runs have shown HP to our north or northeast. SYR and AVP torch on that setup while we stay 20-25F colder. The euro scenario though would give us brilliant spring for a day or two. I'm hoping that we thread a needle and avoid the 2012 disaster with over a week of temperatures in 70s+ which caused the leaves to bud and put an end to the maple season. Right now I think we'll make out OK. I like that look with the high to our north. That could give us some warm days but freezing nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Yeah it looks very cut-offy. The torch also has some red flags. Some of these runs have shown HP to our north or northeast. SYR and AVP torch on that setup while we stay 20-25F colder. The euro scenario though would give us brilliant spring for a day or two. Yes. The "pretty colors" on the 500 mb height anomalies can be a bit misleading! For instance the Euro has mid 70s at BDL on Wednesday and mid 40s on Thursday after the wind switches to easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 There's definite BD potential with that high, but the ec ens have some much warmer solutions. The op is near the extreme cold side of the envelope at d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 Ironically, more snow here this month than some of our snowier winters. Yeah, in Weymouth that might be the case. Here, I would estimate around 10" including the paste job which gave us about 4", and the other storm that gave us around 6". That, along with a couple of snows in Jan. and some cold to go along with it keeps this winter from totally flunking imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'd be willing to wager that every single month of 2016 is AN TEMPS. AN SPRING 16 / AN SUMMER 16 / AN FALL 16 / AN WINTER 17 . IT`S COMING . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted March 1, 2016 Share Posted March 1, 2016 I'd be willing to wager that every single month of 2016 is AN Al Gore was right! We're all gonna burn! Sounds like its time to join the Dark (Warminista) Side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Ensemble and weeklies. Nothing screams snow to me, but the tendency to get weird blocky patterns mid to late March leads to those unexpected blue bombs...especially higher up. Usually nothing ever "screams snow" preceding large late season events....they have a tendency to just roar into existence at short leads....blocky pattern is all you need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Warm flooding rains.. Sounds awesome Mid March is still very plausible...whether we convert anything is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 heh ... from what i'm looking once the 72 hour disturbance escapes the MA the entire N/A pattern is in the process of shifting, probably unable to shift very far back once that happens, too, when being objective about things - and that includes mid month. Both anomalous swings can be huge in spring at our particular latitude ...anomalies tucked inside anomalies.. So obviously in any given March there should be a standing red flag - But the PNA flat lines at both American agencies, and the operational runs hugely agree in trends. Plus, the NP is in AB phase out in time, and highly correlates to a warm CONUS. The 00z was like 4th run in the last 6th from the Euro where it fails to BD at all, and I was looking at the majority of the GFS ensembles and they are also showing an anomalous westerly flow over the Maritimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Flakes flying currently. Last of the season I'd guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Looks like blocking develops and mid month may turn stormy again. still buying into that? Models having been showing blocking for weeks that never comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 still buying into that? Models having been showing blocking for weeks that never comes Backed off a bit, although it was really second half of month that showed any of that. Seems like GOAK trough now which will help keep things mild and wet at times. You never know though....Nino weakening Springs have had some interior snow events late in season. April 87 and 98 come to mind. 98 was more Poconos and into VT I believe. Many people around here may remember late April 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Backed off a bit, although it was really second half of month that showed any of that. Seems like GOAK trough now which will help keep things mild and wet at times. You never know though....Nino weakening Springs have had some interior snow events late in season. April 87 and 98 come to mind. 98 was more Poconos and into VT I believe. Many people around here may remember late April 87. that is true-March 98 gave this area 4-5 inches on the 22nd or something like that after a mostly snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GEFS back to big blocking around and after St. Patty's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GEFS back to big blocking around and after St. Patty's Day. With some serviceable cold around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Yeah where was that 3 months ago? LOL. If anything...might actually be more favorable for late season stuff after St Patty's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 GEFS back to big blocking around and after St. Patty's Day. hopefully, gonna need it at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 With some serviceable cold around? It's near average. So yeah, that time of the year if you get the cutoff in the right place, it may produce snow. It's ridiculously far out though. Who knows if that blocking will materialize or not. Past similar patterns to the upcoming pattern have seen a round of blocking return (even if not long-lasting) in the 2nd half of March or early April on many occasions. Years included are 2003, 1966, 1995, 1961 and 2004. But some years like 2000 never really saw things flip back to colder (despite that one well-timed anafront bomb on 4/9) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I believe March '92 also gave a surprise storm in late March (spring break I remember) after an awful winter that year too ( I lived around NYC at that time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 It's near average. So yeah, that time of the year if you get the cutoff in the right place, it may produce snow. It's ridiculously far out though. Who knows if that blocking will materialize or not. Past similar patterns to the upcoming pattern have seen a round of blocking return (even if not long-lasting) in the 2nd half of March or early April on many occasions. Years included are 2003, 1966, 1995, 1961 and 2004. But some years like 2000 never really saw things flip back to colder (despite that one well-timed anafront bomb on 4/9) Well, at least the Morch stuff may calm down around that time. That's cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I believe March '92 also gave a surprise storm in late March (spring break I remember) after an awful winter that year too ( I lived around NYC at that time) Up until 3/21 I had 19" on the season. After 3/21 I picked up another 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 I believe March '92 also gave a surprise storm in late March (spring break I remember) after an awful winter that year too ( I lived around NYC at that time) First good snow was on first day of Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wx like today's in Morch with no pack just blows. Dropping into the 20's all afternoon with big winds. No need for it. Morch in full effect from next week on cannot come soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 2, 2016 Author Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wx like today's in Morch with no pack just blows. Dropping into the 20's all afternoon with big winds. No need for it. Morch in full effect from next week on cannot come soon enough I like your odds of staying nice mud better than my own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 Wx like today's in Morch with no pack just blows. Dropping into the 20's all afternoon with big winds. No need for it. Morch in full effect from next week on cannot come soon enough The seasonal transformation is occurring....not too long ago you'd have been loving it with CAA and wind ripping through the SNE hill country with dropping temps all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 2, 2016 Share Posted March 2, 2016 The seasonal transformation is occurring....not too long ago you'd have been loving it with CAA and wind ripping through the SNE hill country with dropping temps all day.Very true. But once the snow is gone and/or I know there is no more chances of snow.. I want it warm by Morch. If it was early Feb.. I'd be loving it.. But Morch in my mind is not a cold wx month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Very true. But once the snow is gone and/or I know there is no more chances of snow.. I want it warm by Morch. If it was early Feb.. I'd be loving it.. But Morch in my mind is not a cold wx month Interesting. Usually March is a cold weather month in your eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2016 Share Posted March 3, 2016 Congrats everyone on the biggest day of poster meltdowns of the winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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