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March 2016 Pattern

40/70 Benchmark

By 40/70 Benchmark,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Scott's right ... in so far as this being New England, particularly SNE (which is kind of a peninsula that surrounded by frigid ocean until the end of June most years).   But being at our latitude, and having that latter circumstance be true means that despite an 'overall appeal' this region is notoriously getting f'ed by bs that isn't resolvable ...at all, for those sort of products. 

 

Just say "back door" and speedily end any discussion uncertainty there... 

 

Be that as it may, I am seeing the light as well ...or perhaps, seeing the seasonal light at the end of the tunnel. It would take a brain dead observer not to see that after 7 ....maybe 10 days, the Mud Season switch gets clicked on rather abruptly when balancing all teleconnector modes/modalities together with individual model type/trends therein...  May not be much of a mud season when the grounds pretty much thawed enough anyway..

 

Get a load of that D10 GGEM after it was so kind on Ds 6, 7?   ...  it's not so much that the worst model on the planet has a D10 depiction like that, but is does say something that most guidance keep puking that sort of seasonal flip appeal out there in time.

 

Hell, it's March ...fickle from year to year, you gotta play with the seasonal cards dealt and unlike some recent years, there's no straights in this deck this time.   So yeah, feeling more confidence for timely if not slightly early arrival of spring by New England standards, which again ...notwithstanding the typical migraine reasons to cool it back so endemic to our spring frustrations.  

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CapturedNature

CapturedNature

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Tell that to 2012.

Signal is there.

Over

 

So you can see the details of every event through April and even early May?

 

FYI, 2012 had 1" of snow on 3/31 and a mix on 4/12 and that was after a week of temperatures of in the 70s and even one day of 81 in the middle of the month. 

 

It's spring...we have fickle weather.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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25 is borderline ratter for BOS. Something under 50% to me is a ratter. Just under 30" here currently. Kind of lousy, but could be worse. Was able to get a double digit snowfall this year.

 

a lot of the psychology - i suspect - is guided by 'style and timing' ? 

 

it's like ...what if we are trundling along in our disappointed winter lives, and then got all 25 " in a single juggernaut in early March...followed by a big warm up ...then, an early April surprise...  ?    we'd kind of be inclined - i suspect - to thinking it was a horrible winter that ended fantastic and probably leave it at that.  when in actuality ... it would be similar seasonal totals. 

 

i think when the collective audience here suffers so many whiffs and cutters to the point where it looks exotically personal ...that drive folks to eerie distractions and definitely sours their perspective on matters.  

 

interesting. 

 

btw all ...surely others have commented, but that's a pretty outstanding warm signal beginning to pull up on the horizone there.  we'll see if it has legs... but the PNA is neutralizing and the NAO is going positive, and the tail end of the ensembles and operationals i've seen are all putting up some +10 C 850s in the extended.   perhaps we either dodge one last threat, or get it ...then we're out? 

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

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Posted

a lot of the psychology - i suspect - is guided by 'style and timing' ? 

 

it's like ...what if we are trundling along in our disappointed winter lives, and then got all 25 " in a single juggernaut in early March...followed by a big warm up ...then, an early April surprise...  ?    we'd kind of be inclined - i suspect - to thinking it was a horrible winter that ended fantastic and probably leave it at that.  when in actuality ... it would be similar seasonal totals. 

 

i think when the collective audience here suffers so many whiffs and cutters to the point where it looks exotically personal ...that drive folks to eerie distractions and definitely sours their perspective on matters.  

 

interesting. 

 

btw all ...surely others have commented, but that's a pretty outstanding warm signal beginning to pull up on the horizone there.  we'll see if it has legs... but the PNA is neutralizing and the NAO is going positive, and the tail end of the ensembles and operationals i've seen are all putting up some +10 C 850s in the extended.   perhaps we either dodge one last threat, or get it ...then we're out? 

 

This is an entirely local perspective, but despite the lack of snow this winter, I've found the weather to be interesting.  Our last "ratter" of a winter was 2011-2012, and I found it to be pretty boring weather wise.  I think I had less than 10" of snow that season.  That year it felt like late March all winter with just a few breaks of winter mixed in.  At least this year we have interesting weather patterns that lead to both record heat and cold, some interesting storm developments that were unexpected or over-achievers.  ...at least down here in Rhode Island.  I know NNE it was worse being left out of the coastal events that we received down here.

Even the warm up coming could be a record breaker.  Again, at least its interesting.  When snow is not involved, its all you can hope for, rather than weeks of 40-50 degree temps with clouds and rain showers, drizzle, and fog.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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This is an entirely local perspective, but despite the lack of snow this winter, I've found the weather to be interesting.  Our last "ratter" of a winter was 2011-2012, and I found it to be pretty boring weather wise.  I think I had less than 10" of snow that season.  That year it felt like late March all winter with just a few breaks of winter mixed in.  At least this year we have interesting weather patterns that lead to both record heat and cold, some interesting storm developments that were unexpected or over-achievers.  ...at least down here in Rhode Island.  I know NNE it was worse being left out of the coastal events that we received down here.

Even the warm up coming could be a record breaker.  Again, at least its interesting.  When snow is not involved, its all you can hope for, rather than weeks of 40-50 degree temps with clouds and rain showers, drizzle, and fog.

 

I'm with on this all the way ...  interesting weather is vastly preferred over no weather -

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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He has a pretty easy out this time...easier than last year IMHO...December was so positive that it skewed the average. He will say that Jan/Feb averaged solidly negative (which they did) but the SAI could not have foreseen such a positive December.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah it's going to be basically dead neutral....with a solidly positive NAO.  

 

Not usually gonna get it done for us in a potent El Nino.

 

Mm, partially agree - 

 

-NAO, particularly a statically negative one combined with a surplus latent heat flux coming out of the lower Pacific Basin would have meant so much screaming gradient that shear would have ruled even more than it did. 

 

But I suspect you mean NAO's dipping and rising, because it's the modalities of that particular index that correlates better - right. 

 

I would have also liked to see what a better -EPO might have done for us, too.  Hell, for that matter, maybe the reduction in occurrence/magnitude of -EPO this round is also correlated to ENSO - But, it was negative at times, but not nearly as a stand-alone index quality - it was only negative by happenstance of the PNA lopping it's towering heights into that domain space.  Last year and year before ...if folks recall, the EPO was demonstratively negative at almost all times less than -2 SD, regardless of the PNA's nadirs and peaks... totally different affair.   I wonder what last years NP/NE Pac configuration would do sitting over top a boiling ENSO... wow. 

 

anyway, I'm pretty resolute that this winter was a unique failure in its self.  I outlined why yesterday, and to paraphrase: ridge in the west idiosyncratically too far west post every Pac ejection; too much gradient over all and speed shear was a detriment.  I'm not sure what index/mass-field is responsible but obviously they all play a part.   Either way, those two factors kept rearing their ugly heads as corrections, every single time we busted a favorable mid-range cyclone.  Snow totals aside (and regardless/notwithstanding any surprises going forward), that was the most persistent boning I've ever seen since 1994-1995

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