40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Euro ensembles look good right through the end of the run....there's a huge EPO ridge that tries to build all the way into the central arctic. May have to get a March pattern thread fired up soon. I'll bet the month starts off with storm threats and generally below average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
medmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm interested. Today is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Really nice 12z ensemble suite today. EC ensembles are not tossed. Really active look with plenty of cold around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We don't Morch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Could be a fun ending. Hopefully next week pans out for all, then we top it off in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Predicting colder temperatures to start, with temperatures gradually warming by month's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Isn't this month only half over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Isn't this month only half over Glass half empty or half full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Isn't this month only half over Only one more potential event......the vast majority of the balance of winter lies in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Only one more potential event......the vast majority of the balance of winter lies in March. Well I wouldn't rule out something in the Feb 28-29 timeframe either. Maybe we can just retitle this "Late Feb/March Pattern discussion" to avoid the confusion of having two threads. The other one has seemed to run its course anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Predicting colder temperatures to start, with temperatures gradually warming by month's end.I am on your train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Isn't March a Spring month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Isn't March a Spring month?In the world of meteorology yes, but we all average a decent amount of snow during the month, and with water temps still near the bottom, in terms of sensible weather it's more like a winter month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 No major changes overnight...ensembles are still hitting the +PNA/-EPO combo hard out to the end of the run. The AO looks to go strongly negative as well further out....NAO is still not really excited to join the party though. It hasn't been on all the OP runs, but I'd still watch 2/22 as well. Ensembles have been hinting at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 No major changes overnight...ensembles are still hitting the +PNA/-EPO combo hard out to the end of the run. The AO looks to go strongly negative as well further out....NAO is still not really excited to join the party though. It hasn't been on all the OP runs, but I'd still watch 2/22 as well. Ensembles have been hinting at it. You've nailed the NAO this season. Its ruined what would have been a very good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 The NAO really wasn't that hard to forecast on a period of a month or so out. Include being skeptical and all seasonal models, ensembles...what have you.... never really showed it. If one were to just rip and read the models...that was a correct forecast. On top of that, the tenacity of a +NAO as well as +QBO argued against it. However, the Pacific really has helped tip the AO negative. I have always felt the Pacific was our thing to look out for. Quite possible DJF AO will average negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 17, 2016 Author Share Posted February 17, 2016 The NAO really wasn't that hard to forecast on a period of a month or so out. Include being skeptical and all seasonal models, ensembles...what have you.... never really showed it. If one were to just rip and read the models...that was a correct forecast. On top of that, the tenacity of a +NAO as well as +QBO argued against it. However, the Pacific really has helped tip the AO negative. I have always felt the Pacific was our thing to look out for. Quite possible DJF AO will average negative. That isn't what I was referring to. I was speaking in relation to DJFM calls prior to the season. A slightly negative DJFM NAO was anticipated, and it seems as though that, and maybe NE snowfall are going to be my two misses. I did well regarding everything else. Well, the DJFM positive temp anomalies will be larger than I had though, as well...mainly because of December and the first half of January. No one could have predicted that, though. The warmest December analog possible still was insufficient to capture that exotic anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That isn't what I was referring to. I was speaking in relation to DJFM calls prior to the season. A slightly negative DJFM NAO was anticipated, and it seems as though that, and maybe NE snowfall are going to be my two misses. I did well regarding everything else. Well, the DJFM positive temp anomalies will be larger than I had though, as well...mainly because of December and the first half of January. No one could have predicted that, though. The warmest December analog possible still was insufficient to capture that exotic anomaly. I know, I was just adding to that. I was apprehensive too and the euro seasonal backed it up as well. That was not really happy with a -NAO for months in advance. It had more of a -AO look, but never really showed a good -NAO. It has done well showing that during the previous two winters, so I was weighing those in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 I guess all I am trying to say was that even though seasonal models (including things like euro weeklies) are not high accuracy....we are starting to get to the point where they are getting reliable in hinting at some large scale features. The atmosphere is very chaotic and guidance may never fully grasp things like crazy MJO waves or a SSW...but the models are coupled to the ocean and are getting a better handle on the stratosphere too. Still, by no means would I rip and read them...just food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 That isn't what I was referring to. I was speaking in relation to DJFM calls prior to the season. A slightly negative DJFM NAO was anticipated, and it seems as though that, and maybe NE snowfall are going to be my two misses. I did well regarding everything else. Well, the DJFM positive temp anomalies will be larger than I had though, as well...mainly because of December and the first half of January. No one could have predicted that, though. The warmest December analog possible still was insufficient to capture that exotic anomaly. Pre-season, I had a list of indicators that I utilize in NAO prognostication, and the majority of them favored a neutral to negative NAO, while there were a minority which supported a +NAO. Long range forecasting is all about weighting the various indicators, and often times it's difficult when you have contradictory signals. It's become more apparent to me; however, the signals which seem to be more / less important insofar as NAO long term forecasting. Disappointing to see the NAO failure, but the EPO, PNA, and AO have largely acted in accordance with my expectations. Every winter forecasting season there's usually a new learning lesson thereafter, which is one of the reasons I love it (and the challenge). After seeing the NAO variability / responses of the past few years, it's becoming more clear to me how I should prioritize the indicators. Speaking AO wise, the SAI should verify with a -AO average, but the SAI is one indicator which I weighted slightly less this past winter outlook season, and probably will decrease its weighting again next year. There were a couple of patterns which played havoc with the evolution. The eastern hemispheric forcing was something largely unexpected, and I think needs to be taken into account (increased propensity for IO convection). Many of the analog years didn't have the EH forcing. There are other exogenous variables such as the QBO and solar which likely played a destructive role in hampering early winter vortex perturbation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 17, 2016 Share Posted February 17, 2016 Gefs and eps hinting at a -nao to begin March along with phase 8 Mjo. Would be nice as the AO tanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Gefs and eps hinting at a -nao to begin March along with phase 8 Mjo. Would be nice as the AO tanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Pre-season, I had a list of indicators that I utilize in NAO prognostication, and the majority of them favored a neutral to negative NAO, while there were a minority which supported a +NAO. Long range forecasting is all about weighting the various indicators, and often times it's difficult when you have contradictory signals. It's become more apparent to me; however, the signals which seem to be more / less important insofar as NAO long term forecasting. Disappointing to see the NAO failure, but the EPO, PNA, and AO have largely acted in accordance with my expectations. Every winter forecasting season there's usually a new learning lesson thereafter, which is one of the reasons I love it (and the challenge). After seeing the NAO variability / responses of the past few years, it's becoming more clear to me how I should prioritize the indicators. Speaking AO wise, the SAI should verify with a -AO average, but the SAI is one indicator which I weighted slightly less this past winter outlook season, and probably will decrease its weighting again next year. There were a couple of patterns which played havoc with the evolution. The eastern hemispheric forcing was something largely unexpected, and I think needs to be taken into account (increased propensity for IO convection). Many of the analog years didn't have the EH forcing. There are other exogenous variables such as the QBO and solar which likely played a destructive role in hampering early winter vortex perturbation. This. I am going to weight the QBO more heavily moving forward.....that is the main piece that burned me, IMO...and some misfortune. Had we any semblance of an NAO, I'm quite confident that the snowfall aspect would be panning out....even considering the blizzard whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I know, I was just adding to that. I was apprehensive too and the euro seasonal backed it up as well. That was not really happy with a -NAO for months in advance. It had more of a -AO look, but never really showed a good -NAO. It has done well showing that during the previous two winters, so I was weighing those in. Yea, I mean.....I went with a marginally negative DJFM reading.....noting GGW or anything, but event that has just been a lost cause. I don't know what the aggregate reading is at this time, but it must be north of +1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Dec 97 actually had some forcing in the IO too....but that December was nowhere near the blowtorch that December 15 was. I can't help but think the IO forcing just helped to induce a -PNA blowtorch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Dec 97 actually had some forcing in the IO too....but that December was nowhere near the blowtorch that December 15 was. I can't help but think the IO forcing just helped to induce a -PNA blowtorch. Dec 97 actually had some forcing in the IO too....but that December was nowhere near the blowtorch that December 15 was. I can't help but think the IO forcing just helped to induce a -PNA blowtorch. Pretty sure that you're right. Protracted, crazy anomalies like that do not just happen....something facilitated it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Agree. December was likely a combination of EH/IO forcing / poor MJO, record strong early winter vortex induced via the +QBO / super Nino which strengthened the polar night jet. It was, overall, a perfect recipe for Pacific jet retraction, dumping a deep trough in the Western US, and with the +AO/NAO background -- you've got an Eastern US record ridge and furnace. But since early January, things have re-shuffled nicely with a greater proclivity for Western US ridging and Arctic height rises. Going forward, we will see another potent wave-1 hit to solidify the EPO/PNA/AO height rises next week-early March. Signs that we may achieve a final warming (60N wind reversal now progged) with complete vortex destruction but we'll see. March doesn't look torchy (or warm) for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Agree. December was likely a combination of EH/IO forcing / poor MJO, record strong early winter vortex induced via the +QBO / super Nino which strengthened the polar night jet. It was, overall, a perfect recipe for Pacific jet retraction, dumping a deep trough in the Western US, and with the +AO/NAO background -- you've got an Eastern US record ridge and furnace. But since early January, things have re-shuffled nicely with a greater proclivity for Western US ridging and Arctic height rises. Going forward, we will see another potent wave-1 hit to solidify the EPO/PNA/AO height rises next week-early March. Signs that we may achieve a final warming (60N wind reversal now progged) with complete vortex destruction but we'll see. March doesn't look torchy (or warm) for sure. Yeah I would agree. Not sure about BN...but I don't see it torchy as a whole. First half may be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Sweet weeklies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 19, 2016 Share Posted February 19, 2016 Do mets think Feb finishes AN or BN? Based on guidance it seems avg out AN rest of months , so prob + 1 to +2 NYC to BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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