John1122 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 MRX has WWA and WSW out for parts of the area and discusses accum in other areas, Nashville and Jackson don't seem to be sold. Will the MRX forecast be right? Figure it's better to have a quick thread than to post about it in banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My thoughts exactly. Here's to hopefully getting something other than rain in the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 MRX has WWA and WSW out for parts of the area and discusses accum in other areas, Nashville and Jackson don't seem to be sold. Will the MRX forecast be right? Figure it's better to have a quick thread than to post about it in banter. If it happens, time of day/night will help us as much as it will hurt areas of middle TN IMO. I have seen these types of systems work out numerous times in the last 25 years where modeling indicates a marginal situation that ends up snowing sooner as dynamics cool the column quicker than anticipated. If it occurs it will be a BEAUTIFUL snow as it will stick to EVERYTHING. Whoever gets under the best qpf band (.4-.5 stuff) stands the best chance at a quick couple of inches. Just north and south of that it likely won't work out IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownNDirtyTN Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just got an alert that Greene County was placed under a Winter Storm Warning. Well this could be interesting. It would be kind of humorous after Greeneville/Limestone only getting a little out of this system that just passed through to get 3 or 4 inches tonight on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just how far south is this little system suposse to track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 John, as far as MRX not going with the models, I dont think I can blame them. The models have been off the last 2 systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just how far south is this little system suposse to track? It's supposed to track almost over the top of the Central Valley. MRX is counting on top down cooling under heavy rates just north of the 850 low. Being at night will help as TNWeather pointed out. Temps will be marginal below 2500 feet, but if heavier rates cool the column a quick thump of heavy wet snow is very possible. It's odd though that 5 miles apart Nashville is forecasting less than 1/2 inch and MRX is forecasting 1-3. You rarely see that much difference in neighboring offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I have seen it happen before and night could help but looking at where the snow is currently depicted on radar it seems up to an inch in West Knoxville is a stretch. It could happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm very surprised but also somewhat pleased that I'm currently under 20 to 25 dbz returns but nothing hitting the ground. Surface is moist, must be a layer above that's dry, that's good for dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'm very surprised but also somewhat pleased that I'm currently under 20 to 25 dbz returns but nothing hitting the ground. Surface is moist, must be a layer above that's dry, that's good for dynamic cooling. Interesting. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's 39 degrees. I'm not buying MRX's forecast. I think it's going to be too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Now drizzling here. Yeah I'm very skeptical as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's 39 degrees. I'm not buying MRX's forecast. I think it's going to be too warm. I am not so skeptical about low level temps they could be overcome. I think the 850 low will be to far north. Hope I am wrong surprises are always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I am not so skeptical about low level temps they could be overcome. I think the 850 low will be to far north. Hope I am wrong surprises are always nice. Yeah I'm not worried about surface temps as long as they are below 40 but If the track isn't south of Knoxville it won't matter for the valley anyway. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 MRX Just Added another layer of counties to the WWA. At least at the moment. I don't know what they are seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 MRX Just Added another layer of counties to the WWA. At least of the moment. I don't know what they are seeing. Well I'm like 5 miles from the Union Co line so it's headed in the right direction. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Runman292 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well I'm like 5 miles from the Union Co line so it's headed in the right direction. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Unfortunately, I'm a little further south (15 minutes northeast of downtown Knoxville), so I need it to move even further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just noticed that snow is showing up on RadarScope in the Southeast corner of Kentucky so maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The only thing we have in our favor for accumulation is the system is moving in overnight. But that's a long shot. Temps are currently around 40--so not awful as far as being able to cool sufficiently for snow. I've seen it snow near 40 before, when the atmosphere above had cooled sufficiently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Maybe it's just me but it looks like it has a bit of a negative tilt to it and the circulation isn't progressing as much. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It is a small, but rather potent looking system on radar. And it is dropping east-southeast toward the East TN area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd imagine they added extra tier down because the hrrr shifted the low track another 50-100 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's definitely dropping southeast. More so than the models were showing. If we can get under the cold core of this system, we may just see some snow, even in parts of the valley. I'm seeing reports of rain/snow mixture in Warren County KY (Bowling Green area). And snow falling in Mt. Vernon KY now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 306 PM EST TUE FEB 16 2016 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)... STILL DIFFICULT FORECAST AS FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY PRODUCING RAIN AND SNOW AT THIS TIME. MAIN FORCING FROM STRONG JET ALOFT AND THE CIRCULATION AROUND IT SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NEAR THE 850 MB LOW TRACK WHICH MOVES ACROSS THE PLATEAU...EAST CENTRAL TN VALLEY THEN INTO NORTHWEST NC TONIGHT. THE BEST FORCING IS ALONG THIS LINE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES AT MID AFTERNOON HAVE REBOUNDED NICELY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BUT HAVE STAYED IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FROM ABOUT I-40 NORTH. THIS ALSO COINCIDES WHERE THE SNOW AND ICE WAS HEAVIEST THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. SOME BREAKS OCCURRED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLIER BUT HAVE CLOUDED BACK OVER IN THE LAST HOUR. STILL A QUESTION ABOUT HOW FAST WILL LOWER ATMOSPHERE COOL AFTER THE PRECIPITATION STARTS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS FREEZING LEVEL IS ABOUT 3000 FEET AGL. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. BUT FOR THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND VALLEY WILL THE STRONG FRONTO-GENETIC FORCING BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW. ADDED UNION...GRAINGER AND HAMBLEN COUNTIES TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SINCE IT WILL BE JUST NORTH OF 850 MB LOW AND HIGHER RIDGETOPS MAY GET SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW THAN THE VALLEY. HAVE ALREADY RE-ISSUED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND ADDED THE COUNTIES MENTIONED AND UPDATED THE WINTER STORM WARNING. LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE LOWER TO MID 30S...SLIGHTLY COLDER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Currently 39 with light to moderate rain. I hate having to rely on precip rates to cool the column. It works sometimes, but sometimes it doesn't work that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 SLP does seem to be tracking more southerly. I know some of the short range suite earlier today showed it tracking just north of Chatt into SW NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Dropped to 38 with light to moderate rain still falling. Have about 1.5 inches of snow on the ground still, so sticking won't be an issue if I can manage to get it to start falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Dropped to 40 from high of 45, light to moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I got the feeling reading the AFD that MRX wanted to go 40 north with the WWA but held off to monitor trends. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayCee Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Currently 39 with light to moderate rain. I hate having to rely on precip rates to cool the column. It works sometimes, but sometimes it doesn't work that well. Yes, this would be an AWESOME clipper system if the cold air was already available. Its potent, and has plenty of moisture available. If only we could've had this come down last week when we were so cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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