Powerball Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 get ready to torch :wub: :thumbsup: :maphot: ^^^What he said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 90 degrees sounds great to me after the dismal, rainy days in the 40s a short while back. I say bring da heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 14, 2016 Share Posted April 14, 2016 So true, he couldn't help himself to post something depressing when everyone is looking forward to nice warm weather. How is a map with 70s depressing in April? We went from mid 80s to 70s in two runs. Heck the 80s will probably return on future runs. Personally I like spring weather to occur in spring and not summer weather. Spring is short enough in my local area as it is before the uncomfortable humid air moves in. Looking more like southerly winds on Monday for Alek and I. low 80s came back this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Really hoping for a shot at some good severe weather once the warm up hit's, my chasing gear's been gathering dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 How is a map with 70s depressing in April? We went from mid 80s to 70s in two runs. Heck the 80s will probably return on future runs. Personally I like spring weather to occur in spring and not summer weather. Spring is short enough in my local area as it is before the uncomfortable humid air moves in. Looking more like southerly winds on Monday for Alek and I. i do better with SE winds than you do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 How is a map with 70s depressing in April? We went from mid 80s to 70s in two runs. Heck the 80s will probably return on future runs. Personally I like spring weather to occur in spring and not summer weather. Spring is short enough in my local area as it is before the uncomfortable humid air moves in. Looking more like southerly winds on Monday for Alek and I. With a cold front pressing in and 40s behind it. Something no one wants to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 it's april, we're gonna get some backdoor cold fronts down the lake but the overall pattern remains seasonably mild and pleasant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 With a cold front pressing in and 40s behind it. Something no one wants to see. I was just noting the real warm days were timed different on that 12z run. I've been wanting those 40s to end. Anyways - so far the medium range isn't too bad on this run of the GFS. A horseshoe of moisture or boomerang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 12z GFS is super mild, green up about to commence in a big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 I was just noting the real warm days were timed different on that 12z run. I've been wanting those 40s to end. Anyways - so far the medium range isn't too bad on this run of the GFS. A horseshoe of moisture or boomerang. GFS is torchy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 Nice Bermuda like high at D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted April 15, 2016 Share Posted April 15, 2016 GFS is torchy So is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 Light the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 heck of a pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted April 16, 2016 Share Posted April 16, 2016 heck of a pattern The Euro would reload with the bigger trough over the GoA diving into the west, the GFS with a ridge starting to form northeast of Hawaii. That would lock in the pattern it has for a while, either way both models have a great pattern for our area for warmth and eventually storm potentials down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 The period after the 24th looks quite potent. GEFS 9-11 day analog sets... percentage of analogs with 1 severe report Percent of analogs with 10 severe reports Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 April 29/30 look interesting on the GFS for the Midwest, but alas, so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Looking forward to some action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 Double AA on the latest ERTAF. https://twitter.com/gensiniwx/status/721886544731226112 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 I've been watching next weekend (4/23-24) on the models for several runs now regarding eastern MN. What looked promising a couple of days ago is now looking less than stellar. The GFS is still holding on to a severe threat, but the Euro not so much. To much convection breaking out over IA coupled with eastern surface winds, should limit our severe threat. However the Euro does dump some decent rains over us on the stable side of the system ending our fire danger threat. Time will tell which solution is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 I've been watching next weekend (4/23-24) on the models for several runs now regarding eastern MN. What looked promising a couple of days ago is now looking less than stellar. The GFS is still holding on to a severe threat, but the Euro not so much. To much convection breaking out over IA coupled with eastern surface winds, should limit our severe threat. However the Euro does dump some decent rains over us on the stable side of the system ending our fire danger threat. Time will tell which solution is correct. I think most of the potential here is going to be focused in the Plains, especially initially. Whatever comes first is going to have to shunt the ridge eastward for succeeding systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 I think most of the potential here is going to be focused in the Plains, especially initially. Whatever comes first is going to have to shunt the ridge eastward for succeeding systems. I'm not so much worried about the ridge be shunted to the east. My major worry is the mid level Hudson Bay trough and what happens under neath it. If the low level flow is anti cyclonic it will likely force severe convection to the south, if the flow is cyclonic it would likely open us up for at least some kind of severe threat as the drying winds would stay north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted April 18, 2016 Share Posted April 18, 2016 GFS has now come into the Euro camp. Will be surprised to see dews exceed 50° here at MSP (04/23 -24). I wouldn't be surprised if we have a major severe event to the south of us with moisture streaming out of the gulf, being forced to pool in the plains, especially if the Bermuda high is as strong as advertised and contributes more moisture coming in off the SE US coast as the western trough ejects out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osubrett2 Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 Next week looks active with a series of storms rolling through which is creating some interesting temperature gradients. Cold front slowly sags south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 19, 2016 Share Posted April 19, 2016 GFS has had a few days 50s highs off and on every few runs over the past few days. Could be something to watch. It is not present on the 18z run but was more than present on the 12z run. I am not sure if the Euro has something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 20, 2016 Share Posted April 20, 2016 Hopefully this weekend is the last time it snows (looks like a shot at something early Sunday) for many months. I checked my forecast and I have near freezing temps. and snow for this Sunday or Monday - what the hell is this s***?? I thought it was suppose to be high 60s all the way up here in Ontario during that frame. Op GFS is hinting at some cold shots beyond day 10. Hope not. Leave it to the GFS 10 day to sniff out something, really hoping it all collapses. Out of all the Day 10's from the GFS, don't let this one slip into reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 You can go ahead and count on that happening. Between the 26-28th I won't be able to chase. Count on it coming to fruition lol. Yep, 26-27th looking noice. Wouldn't have expected anything less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted April 21, 2016 Share Posted April 21, 2016 Yep, 26-27th looking noice. Wouldn't have expected anything less. Seems like the 27th has a big outbreak every year lol. 26th looks great over OK and the 27th looks decent up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted April 29, 2016 Share Posted April 29, 2016 Pattern looks pretty quiet for the upcoming week, but some signs for things to pick back up next weekend. Things at work should be much quieter now, so I'll be good to go chase-wise from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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