ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 You're mocking me. I feel it. I'd prefer storm sh*tbag for 'cuse though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Blows I gotta work all day tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 I'd prefer storm sh*tbag for 'cuse though Your from Snoqualmie pass? Don't they get insane snow there in the mountains? http://www.wsdot.com/winter/files/HistoricalSnowfallData1415season.pdf?v=25 430" yearly average. Insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 1002 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 GFS had 1004 MB at similar location, slightly southwest so right on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Your from Snoqualmie pass? Don't they get insane snow there in the mountains? Not quite, and actually I need to update that since I moved a bit. Snoqualmie is in a river valley at like 500 ft elevation about 30 minutes west of the pass at 3000'. But yeah they had like 8 feet when I drove by there last week. I've had all of 3 inches this year imby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Some are just east of roc some are just west. Compromise roc is in a nice spot I've been saying this from the get! KROC is in the best possible place it can be in . If she ticks East your good, if she ticks West your good so just watch the radar and look for Meso-banding or CCB within the larger precip field and start adding it up!!. Forget the models at this point because they are always trending as they don't stop, lol. Its always in motion seeking balance but never finds it, 14-18" for KROC is my call. 6-10" the Cuse, if it starts to change earlier, which I think is in the offing, then the first batch 3-5" then after the rain back to s+ for a few more hours, will yield another 2-3" so totals for the Cuse 5-8" total a little cut off because of the the switch to IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Good luck to all in CNY and WNY alike!! I;m in Maine and we've already went over to IP/FZRN and I'm quite a bit further to the North than you guys are, lol!! Ya gotta just love the Winter season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 After HRRR was moving East all night, it seems it has finally stopped the March. Latest hr actually pushed back a tiny little bit. Eastern Monroe County line the battle there. BTW: I didn't mean to offend anyone or break the rules. I won't do it again!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We are over an inch north of KSYR. Maybe close to 2"....my final and only call: KSYR: 5.5 KROC: 2 (ok...14) KBUF: 10.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 After HRRR was moving East all night, it seems it has finally stopped the March. Latest hr actually pushed back a tiny little bit. Eastern Monroe County line the battle there. BTW: I didn't mean to offend anyone or break the rules. I won't do it again!! Latest HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 2 lol already got 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 A more detailed HRRR look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's into the low 40s in southern Ew England...pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 It's into the low 40s in southern Ew England...pouring snow. Heavier returns begin to move in here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That dreaded line is inching closer and closer to the Syracuse area and its moving in faster than first anticipated. Those stronger looking echoes to the S&SW of Syracuse is the IP line I'm pretty sure so we have to see how far and how fast it advance to the N/NW in the next few hre. Either way, all the great ones I've been trough in the past have had a period of IP/SN+. It's the change over to complete rain I'm a bit weary about, but we'll see. I'm in ME, sitting at 20F with FZ/RN so its a miserable night to say the least and I wouldn't want to be going to wrk in the morning knowing that it just Poured FZRN all night!! Interesting part about m,y area is that the temp a few hrs ago was 25 and rising, the wind switched out of the East and the temps started going the other way now we're down to 20F again, and we dropped quick!! According to this skew t I should be approaching 32F, so somethings amiss in model worl!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I really don't like the looks of the radar, but it's late and I'm off to bed and I hope all y'all wake up, to those who actually go to sleep,lol, wake to a white wonderland, and there's more on the way, so don't think this is a hit a run cause its not, at least that's the way it appears right now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My backyard is already up to 28F. That combined with latest HRR. I've gotta temper my enthusiasm. Still enjoying this, but anything is still possible with this much of a dynamic system and warm air aloft, so close to Rochester. WE ARE IN THE battleground. I'd breathe easier in Buffalo, but I also know the bonus snow comes close to the transition zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 That dreaded line is inching closer and closer to the Syracuse area and its moving in faster than first anticipated. Those stronger looking echoes to the S&SW of Syracuse is the IP line I'm pretty sure so we have to see how far and how fast it advance to the N/NW in the next few hre. Either way, all the great ones I've been trough in the past have had a period of IP/SN+. It's the change over to complete rain I'm a bit weary about, but we'll see. I'm in ME, sitting at 20F with FZ/RN so its a miserable night to say the least and I wouldn't want to be going to wrk in the morning knowing that it just Poured FZRN all night!! Interesting part about m,y area is that the temp a few hrs ago was 25 and rising, the wind switched out of the East and the temps started going the other way now we're down to 20F again, and we dropped quick!! RAD_MOS_REG_NE_WINTER_ANI.gif According to this skew t I should be approaching 32F, so somethings amiss in model worl!! I actually think it's going to be a close call for SYR...Western burbs may hang on to mostly frozen. You can see how this is going to set up on the radar loop. Look at where the transition line is and how it's evolving to the south. NWP looks pretty good putting the transition Between KSYR and KROC. Remember this is a weak system in terms of dynamics, it's all about longitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My final call: Buf-10" Roc-8" Batavia-17" Syracuse-3" Walworth-6" I just see a big nose of warm air hitting everyone but West of Kroc. Western Suburbs could still do well. Tim, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Walworth killing it with this much warmth headed north. Counties just south of you already showing mixing. Ugh. Hvy dynamics could change this situation! Just my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My backyard is already up to 28F. That combined with latest HRR. I've gotta temper my enthusiasm. Still enjoying this, but anything is still possible with this much of a dynamic system and warm air aloft, so close to Rochester. WE ARE IN THE battleground. I'd breathe easier in Buffalo, but I also know the bonus snow comes close to the transition zone. I actually think it's going to be a close call for SYR...Western burbs may hang on to mostly frozen. You can see how this is going to set up on the radar loop. Look at where the transition line is and how it's evolving to the south. NWP looks pretty good putting the transition Between KSYR and KROC. Remember this is a weak system in terms of dynamics, it's all about longitude. Which is it guys, lol, I think it's an extremely dynamic system, on a synoptic level obviously, and I don't know why you don't think so? By the time the Surface SLP gets here it'll be a closed top down system obviously meaning all levels are closed off, which to me is a pretty dynamic system, but I guess to each his own. The one apparent variable lacking here is the wind, but when she gets up to the US/CA border that'll be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My final call: Buf-10" Roc-8" Batavia-17" Syracuse-3" Walworth-6" I just see a big nose of warm air hitting everyone but West of Kroc. Western Suburbs could still do well. Tim, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't see Walworth killing it with this much warmth headed north. Counties just south of you already showing mixing. Ugh. Hvy dynamics could change this situation! Just my call. I think your right as everyone see's some mixing including KBUF, IMHO. At the rate in which I see the warm air intruding, it won't take much!! However I DO NOT see much rain occurring with this system as I think the models are grosly underestimating the low level cold air sitting over a dense snowpack!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 3" for Syracuse? You sure that's not a typo? If not, good luck brutha. I went 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Nam cut totals by, quite a bit, for portions of the area as the mid levels are torching!! Oh, well. just when you think you have it, it gets snatched right from ya and there's nothing anybody can do about it, lol! Gotta love the Weather!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Once again, a big discrepency between the Nam's 2mT vs the actual temps. This skew says we should be up to 35F when in actuality we are at 26F, a 09F degree difference, once again somethings amiss here!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I've gotta get a different hobby. The latest HRR, moves the mix east again. Is there medicine for this type of OCD? LOL. I don't know if I'm allowed to show model as its off Weather Bell, but it shows the hvst axis across Eastern Monroe County. 14" in next 15 hrs. 6z NAM does show some sleet in eastern Monroe. Not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 As of 4:30 am, moderate snow is falling in Rochester. The temp profile has seemed to have solidified as suggested by short range models. I'm sitting at 30F. So it's close. But looks like am commute is gonna be rough from Rochester west. My grill hasn't had enough snow to take another pic. Probably around 2.5" thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 I measured an avg of 2.6" outside, it's snowing at a 1"/hr rate. no big flakes though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedbird747 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Have about 4" here. All fzra now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Just gross. Cold rain. Funny how even the storm that we wanted found a way to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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