BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 So the Euro was pretty much spot on with the track a week ago and other model guidance has hopped on board to a pretty similar track. It looks to strengthen as it heads up through Eastern New York into Canada. Winter Storm Warnings are up for most of the forum. This will be a large synoptic snowstorm for this region. Something we haven't seen in more than a year. Latest call for accumulations from KBUF. Ice Forecast: Timeline: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 I want to preface this on the basis that all models have thermal profiles built within them. This system will have lots of issues with mixing,rain,snow, ice depending on location and the generic snow algorithms output may be flawed depending on last minute fluctuations in track. Latest Model Runs: NAM 12KM NAM 4KM GFS: GEM through 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 High Res Models Tom Niziols post from facebook. This is his in house RPM model. His post, "Wow!!! Newest RPM run shows 20-24" of snow for Buffalo. Some models show as much as 24-30" between Buffalo and Rochester. This is NOT a lake-effect snow event. It is a larger scale weather system that will track right up along the Appalachians." WRF-ARW WRF-NMM RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 The Euro shows similar amounts of 8-15" from WNY along the southshore of lake Ontario towards Syracuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Here she comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Some are just east of roc some are just west. Compromise roc is in a nice spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Casually will be spending my night writing a lab report for an 8AM class... we'll see if I finish it before it changes over to rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 00z nam had the warm nose above H85 with ROC briefly getting above 0C at 800 hPa. Won't matter too much but i'm curious to see how far northwest it mixes before crashing back east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 3 hr. pressure falls: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Are we getting a low forming in upstate sc. If so looked out. Would prolong storm with more juice. Pressure falls would show this riding up along or just east of apps into bighm to burlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Latest Media update on storm...does this thing have a name? How about Storm Sh*tbag? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Sfc. low is on the NC/TN border which is a bit east of the WPC track. Speculation? Probably, but it's worth watching when the implications are significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 KBGM has already mixed. Could be worse, look at KPIT, raining cats and dogs...it's as bad, no worse, than southern New England. A magnet for Warm noses and egregious WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 We are in Nowcast mode. Junk the models. I'm up to 25F, in a few hours we'll be broiling like hot dogs on a grill per my local mets. I weep for the dawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ADKwx Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 How come 'Winter Storm Olympia' isn't in the title? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 There's a nice blend of optimism and pessimism in this thread already, I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 My final call: SYR: 6.8" ROC: 17.5" BUF: 9.8" Whole storm..(ie, both front end and back end for SYR) Maxes of 27"...somewhere in the central finger lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 The radar is filling in beautifully along the whole mid Atlantic seaboard. The low level jet is really cranking up. I haven't felt this good about my location for a synoptic hit in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Latest HRDPS is coming through on WxBell... through 17z Fulton's max temp is 33, and they have 1.4" of QPF before temps break freezing. ROC has 1.6" of QPF through 18hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Even the spread among the locals in BUF is pretty notable... Channel 7 nails ROC... Channel 4 is way west and nails BUF... Channel 2 is huge big hit somewhere between BUF and ROC... I like this one best... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Thanks for update show map when it's done running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Latest HRDPS is coming through on WxBell... through 17z Fulton's max temp is 33, and they have 1.4" of QPF before temps break freezing. ROC has 1.6" of QPF through 18hrs. Yeah but ALL of ROCs ratios will be around 10:1...a lot of Fulton's ratio's will be 1:1.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 How come 'Winter Storm Olympia' isn't in the title? You're mocking me. I feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Yeah but ALL of ROCs ratios will be around 10:1...a lot of Fulton's ratio's will be 1:1.... I'll take my 2:1 sleet and 1:1 ZR and I'll like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Ratios look pretty good right now HRDPS says fulton stays in the the mid 20's till 7 am, then jump up 7 degrees over following 3 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 What's it give roc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 2.0"+ for ROC through 23z. Only a meager 1.1" for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Well, I'm turning in....good luck to our WNY brethren!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Wow. Does it show snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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