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Feb 15-16 President's Day Massacre Obs


CT Valley Snowman

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it's one of those scenarios where you stare intently and obsessively at ever p-type rad blip and talk ur-self out of inevitability, overly scrutinize model output down to the pixel ... looking for any reason to talk yourself into believing things are better off than they are.  

 

spare yourselves the anxiety and study the better looking stuff at the end of the week and beyond.  If something more should positive bust of this, crooning over social media and/or data sources isn't going to make it happen.

I am sitting outside watching it snow pretty good, just awesome out here right now. , squeaky snow, still encased from the paste job.
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Looks like advisory description should pan out fairly well.. 

 

Rad trends show/suggests a burst of moderate snow blossoming up through the region through the evening...  

 

P-type products show the transition moving up the I-95 corridor and should arrive overnight.   It'll be interesting to see how long ZR profiles can maintain with zippo blocking high N.  If the models are right about low pressure deepening through central NYS, warm air will win however.  

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These are the types of setups where the CT Valley holds the cold the longest...southerly flow or SSE flow and not a ton of CAD in the boundary layer...all trying to hold on at the sfc. Often they'll get this really weak northerly drain right at the valley floor while up the slope 500 feet is ripping out of the SSE.

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