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Feb 15-16 President's Day Massacre Obs


CT Valley Snowman

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Turned to sleet as soon as I posted that 5 min ago. Got an eighth of an inch past 10 min so about inch/hr but before that I think it was a little heavier. Although returns are much higher from this sleet/melting snow layer, which is getting picked up quite phenomenally on CC, precip intensity seems a little lighter. 

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RAP_255_2016021602_F05_42.5000N_71.0000W

This is for north shore of MA overnight. Holy crap. If we stay below freezing this is gonna be wild. Getting lots of IP now. CC and Differential Ref look crazy on RadarScope. Hydro Class saying Unknown Precip. It's officially "Upping" here. 

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BTV's take as of an hour ago...given the northward progress of the warm tongue, and developing negative trough with strong jet dynamics giving absolutely no resistance to warm air advection aloft (CAD may be a different story in the low levels), I'm inclined to stay on the lower end of the 2-4" forecast.  I'm thinking 1-3" from town to mountain (0.1-0.15" QPF snow) followed by a tenth or two of IP. 

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 942 PM EST MONDAY...WHILE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
TAKEN EFFECT, THE WINTER STORM WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT AT THE TOP
OF THE HOUR. FORECAST IS HOLDING UP PRETTY WELL. WITH THIS UPDATE
I`VE MADE SOME SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY AND USED A BLEND OF 18Z GFS/01Z RAP FOR A REFRESH
TO PRECIPITATION TYPES. THAT CHANGE ESSENTIALLY INTRODUCES
SNOW/SLEET ABOUT AN HOUR SOONER THAN THE PRIOR FORECAST. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST QPF OR SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS WERE NECESSARY.

RECENT METARS FROM RUTLAND AND SPRINGFIELD INDICATE THE
LEADING EDGE OF STEADIER SNOW HAS NOW INTRUDED INTO RUTLAND AND
WINDSOR COUNTIES. THIS SHIELD OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SNOW WILL OCCASIONALLY
FALL AT MODERATE INTENSITY AT TIMES AS AXIS OF FRONTOGENESIS
STRENGTHENS AND BEGINS TO PIVOT TO THE NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO
SHARPENING THERMAL GRADIENT TIED TO ADVANCING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER
NORTHERN GEORGIA. WARM AIR ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD, AND I DO NOTE THE RAP MODEL 925 0C LINE HAS NOW
ADVANCED TO INTERIOR CT. THIS MATCHES UP REALLY WELL WITH OKX
DUAL-POL RADAR CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA WHICH SUGGEST MIXED-
PHASE P-TYPES. EXPECT THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WARM AIR ALOFT TO
SHIFT INTO SOUTHERN VT BY 07Z OR SO WITH SNOW MIXING IN WITH SLEET
AT THAT POINT IN TIME, WITH MIX LINE ADVANCING NORTHWARD TOWARD
NORTHERN VERMONT AND THE ADIRONDACKS BEFORE THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. TRAVEL DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTED.

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BTV's take as of an hour ago...given the northward progress of the warm tongue, and developing negative trough with strong jet dynamics giving absolutely no resistance to warm air advection aloft (CAD may be a different story in the low levels), I'm inclined to stay on the lower end of the 2-4" forecast.  I'm thinking 1-3" from town to mountain (0.1-0.15" QPF snow) followed by a tenth or two of IP. 

 

It'll pound just ahead of that warm nose, but yeah I'm inclined to think 2-4 for most before a flip. 

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