friedmators Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR gets NYC to 32 by midnight . Here is where it thinks the 1 PM 2M are A little warm so far at LGA/EWR/JFK/KNYC Im at 18 in Warren,NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Very light snow 22 just a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Heavy snow in Hamilton, NJ. 25 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries in western Nassau. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 During summer the afternoon southerlies shut down the fisheries immediately, we were always told it was a drop in temps According to the captains' license exam, the prevailing coastal winds are NW....at least in the 8o's when my pals took it. Very light fine flakes here. I could see that for the jersey shore. I side shore wind can cause upwelling. But on the island a southerly afternoon wind especially during the warm season will bring warm surface water. And ISO is dead on about the ice. Remember the cutter last January after a cold spell? That was a much warmer storm and we had crazy ice on the roads that morning Don't underestimate the cold ground. We were in the single digits and teens for days By tomorrow it will not be an issue anywhere within 200 miles of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Models continue to be way off showing 2mt cold, I agree that a decent ice event may be in store for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Models continue to be way off showing 2mt cold, I agree that a decent ice event may be in store for some Im expecting a decent ice event up here. Models always try to warm the surface too quickly up here. Latest HRRR shows a tongue of below freezing surface temps @ 8z funneling down the HV. I never bought into a big plain rain event up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The ground is dusted in southern Westchester. Some photos from late this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 13f w/ flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Im expecting a decent ice event up here. Models always try to warm the surface too quickly up here. Latest HRRR shows a tongue of below freezing surface temps @ 8z funneling down the HV. I never bought into a big plain rain event up here. I am 30 miles to your NW. Do you think here in Liberty we flip to plain rain too? When does Middletown and Liberty rise above 32? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Does the old adage that storms tend to exit the east coast where they enter the west coast hold up to actual evidence? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The ground is dusted in southern Westchester. Some photos from late this morning: Don, Stunning photos. What kind of camera do you use? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I am 30 miles to your NW. Do you think here in Liberty we flip to plain rain too? When does Middletown and Liberty rise above 32? Prob sometime after daybreak tomorrow. You hold onto frozen a couple hours longer than I do though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Prob sometime after daybreak tomorrow. You hold onto frozen a couple hours longer than I do though. Is this going to be a possible .25 ice accretion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Almost an east to west gradient from warm to cold, rather than the usual SE to NW or sometimes S to N. For folks like me in NE Middlesex County, where it's 23F, but it's near 32F just 25 miles ESE of me, that's a concern... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is this going to be a possible .25 ice accretion? .10-.25 on top of 3-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 .10-.25 on top of 3-6" of snow. I know Upton raised your zone but BGM has not raised mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I think many areas could be in for quite a significant icing event for these reasons. 1) Although the high is departing, we still have an extremely cold airmass in place with areas N&W of the city still in the teens. Models are almost always too quick to scour out low level cold air in these setups. 2) The warm push at the mid and upper levels can not and will not be denied. It's occurring as we speak which is why we currently have snow falling. 3) The ground is completely frozen, so ice will continue to accumulate even as the surface rises above freezing. 4) The precip is expected to remain light in nature through sunrise which is more favorable for ice accretion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow picking up in intensity now..this is where the accumulation starts...23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Moderate snow here now in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 .10-.25 on top of 3-6" of snow. It's going to be even more ice than that in the valley's of NNJ. Especially near the 287 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 22 snow picking up and better flake size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 .10-.25 on top of 3-6" of snow. Upton went from 1-4, to 2-4 to 2-5, to 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 22f snow intensity picking up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Ripping snow here in Hamilton, NJ. About an inch on the ground so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Mod snow now. Let's see how long his lasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Several TOR warnings down South from this system. Even a confirmed tornado on the ground in MS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Light grapel here... Temp back down to 19 from 21... This cold air is going to hard to move out. It will happen but probably not for at least a few hours longer than thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Extremely tiny flakes falling really fast now 18.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hrrr shows a disappointing were still cold enough for snow and ice This was clearly a typo people... And what I meant was SOME of us are still cold enough for snow, yet the precipitation is as yanksfan put it down to a drizzle, we'll that may bode well for ice secretion but not when your cold enough for snow still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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