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2/16 President Day Storm Obs


UnionWeatherWx

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just noticed that a few spots right on the south/central Jersey shore are already above freezing.

With an ESE wind not surprising. Water temperatures are in the low 40's which like our winter is way above normal for this time of year. They should be in the 34-37 range about now, they're currently 40-43

I honestly thought those places would be much warmer now than they are

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Ocean temps were in the mid to upper 30s yesterday. It's possible the southerly winds are allowing for warmer water to upwell near the coast.

 

Where?

 

I checked 3 buoys today. 2 off the central Jersey coast and one off the south shore of LI. They were 40, 41 & 43.

 

That would be a huge change in one day. I don't check often enough to know if that's even possible.

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I think someone posted the chart yesterday showing 38 or so of sandy hook. I could be mistaken. Re-read your post and saw you were discussing south central nj.

I think looking at the offshore buoys from NDBC is the best way to judge water temps relative to how the weather may be impacted. 44025 and 44065 are the closest and most representative of the area. They are both around 40 or so right now. Mid February to early March is usually the coldest the ocean gets. I usually remember seeing the buoys around that 34-38 range that someone else mentioned.
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Stop looking at snow total maps, this is the HRRR liqued precipitation, everyone north of richland is still frozen, North of 84 is still snow, and the city has just changed over. ..nearly .3-.5 falls as snow

 

HRRR gets NYC to 32 by midnight .

 

Here is where it thinks the 1 PM  2M are 

A little warm so far at LGA/EWR/JFK/KNYC 

56c20e7f91768_hrrr_t2m_nyc_3HRRR1PMTEMPS

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Ocean temps were in the mid to upper 30s yesterday. It's possible the southerly winds are allowing for warmer water to upwell near the coast.

Kind of the opposite of upwelling but you have the right idea. The warm water is always sitting out by the Gulf Stream so you just need an onshore flow to bring it back in. This is why CAD shouldn't be an issue near the coast. We need a EnE wind on the island and the jersey shore ideally NNe for any type of CAD

Grapul and plates in bellmore waiting for the train. Not looking forward to the ice later at Columbia/Barnard. The brickwork on campus is like a refrigerator and stays cold for hours and hours and ices even during heavy rain

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The 17z HRRR has almost all freezing rain from the city on N&W from 01z through about 05z in which case the surface just creeps above freezing. However, icing will continue for several hours after that, especially if the precip is light or showery in nature given the completely frozen ground.

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Kind of the opposite of upwelling but you have the right idea. The warm water is always sitting out by the Gulf Stream so you just need an onshore flow to bring it back in. This is why CAD shouldn't be an issue near the coast. We need a EnE wind on the island and the jersey shore ideally NNe for any type of CAD

Grapul and plates in bellmore waiting for the train. Not looking forward to the ice later at Columbia/Barnard. The brickwork on campus is like a refrigerator and stays cold for hours and hours and ices even during heavy rain

During summer the afternoon southerlies shut down the fisheries immediately, we were always told it was a drop in temps According to the captains' license exam, the prevailing coastal winds are NW....at least in the 8o's when my pals took it. Very light fine flakes here.

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