Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 HRRR and RAP picked up on this band well. Frontogenesis parameters lit up on SPC mesoanalysis. Interestingly, they're both pretty dry after it goes for a few hours. If they are right it's not really 'extra' snow just distributed differently than expected. I'm glad either way. If we're going to get over 10-1 ratios it would have to be early in the game. Stuff tomorrow will be increasingly dense and lower ratio until it's so dense the flakes will be little balls of ice. I dropped a degree last hour to 18. Nice cold start. I'm going to try and stay up for the meat of the first pulse and then hit the sack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Lightly snowing here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow has started, immediately once under the lightest of echos. Good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 RGEM similar to the NAM keeping the "heavy" stuff DC south. ~1" in DC as of day break. About 2-3" total for DC with more to the south. Well the RGEM has no snow here until 4:00 AM. So its already wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2016 Author Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well the RGEM has no snow here until 4:00 AM. So its already wrong. Definitely a good start for it. It hasn't been that good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWC Split Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow started in Haymarket at 10:15. 20/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Well the RGEM has no snow here until 4:00 AM. So its already wrong. Chips fall time. When this close I try to just let it play out and not get hung up on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Didn't take long to get everything white. Love, love, love cold snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 10.11.52 PM.png www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html Awesome! Anyway you could zoom in on an area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Fluffs in Nokesville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries beginning in Dale City at 1023pm. Temperature is down to 19 and dewpoint is 4. Ninja'd by Stormpc! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries beginning in Dale City at 1023pm. Temperature is down to 19 and dewpoint is 4. Impressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I'm glad either way. If we're going to get over 10-1 ratios it would have to be early in the game. Stuff tomorrow will be increasingly dense and lower ratio until it's so dense the flakes will be little balls of ice. I dropped a degree last hour to 18. Nice cold start. I'm going to try and stay up for the meat of the first pulse and then hit the sack. Yeah that's true, just thinking out loud mainly. They might not be right anyway, though they did pick up this band pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snow started in Haymarket at 10:15. 20/6 Yes snow here. Fast start. 21F. Giddyup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 10.11.52 PM.png www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html neat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 10.11.52 PM.png www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html This is magnificent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That is really cool, jmister. Bookmarked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 21/6. Snow on the doorstep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Flurries in Herndon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 10.11.52 PM.png www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html sweet man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 21/6. Snow on the doorstep So close you could start counting down from 30 or so. -SN 21. Good times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dusted. There's a stiff E-NE wind here. I've always observed that that usually gets us to max precip totals out here. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Hey Mid-Atlantic folks, Now that we beginning to get into the now-casting/obs aspect of this upcoming storm, I wanted to introduce my new tool that compares real radar to simulated HRRR and NAM4km radar. Check it out! Screen Shot 2016-02-14 at 10.11.52 PM.png www.jmmweather.com/HRRR.html www.jmmweather.com/NAM.html Very cool. Should be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 GFS pretty wimpy. consistent with the narrative of initial thump, dryslotty, and then race against the flip tomorrow mid morning to early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Light snow in Purcellville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 23.0 degrees, dew point 2 degrees, humidity 43% in Severna Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Dusted. There's a stiff E-NE wind here. I've always observed that that usually gets us to max precip totals out here. We shall see. You should have a southeast wind?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 This highlights the zone where some weak mid-level frontogenesis is occurring. Shifting into immediate area now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Snowing here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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