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President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Hmmmm... 4K NAM has good radar returns over our area for the next several hours, yet no precipitation. Does anybody know if the simulated radar is composite? Because I seriously doubt we virga for that long with 25-35 DBZ returns.

 

it's going to snow soon, and yes, 4k has accumulation....1/2"+  for me and you by 1am

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everything is becoming kind of choppy...an initial thump - which may be localized....then some dryslotting especially north of DC....then a precip shield outracing the changeover....There is some good bust potential

I actually think you especially are looking pretty good for this to overperform compared to your forecast you put out earlier Matt.
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everything is becoming kind of choppy...an initial thump - which may be localized....then some dryslotting especially north of DC....then a precip shield outracing the changeover....There is some good bust potential

Yep,  I'd take the NAM in a heartbeat as it gives me almost 4 inches,  I've got my doubts for my house but it likes south better than north because of the initial thump is there longer. 

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I actually think you especially are looking pretty good for this to overperform compared to your forecast you put out earlier Matt.

 

I'm in a pretty good spot, especially if this initial thump over the next 5 hours performs.  Still. I could end up being on the northern edge of the good stuff and then end up in a race against the flip.  This is a very imperfect event.  I'm happy with my 2-3" call for MBY.  It will be fun to let it unfold and see what happens. 

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I'm in a pretty good spot, especially if this initial thump over the next 5 hours performs. Still. I could end up being on the northern edge of the good stuff and then end up in a race against the flip. This is a very imperfect event. I'm happy with my 2-3" call for MBY. It will be fun to let it unfold and see what happens.

Based on what I see with radar, I do think those north of Baltimore should still get on in decent stuff with the thump and ratios could really perform. Very cold aloft and decent lift with the reasonably strong waa over this cold dome in place.
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