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President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Some mixed messages.

 

Hearing not going above freezing until midnight on the Euro and hearing it might not be much longer once the moderate rain moved in and warms the surface.......... either this is a major ice storm starting or the melting process has begun as the temp warms to match the rain.

 

The short range guidance has been incredibly consistent that  DC doesn't go above freezing until late evening.  Doesn't mean DCA won't be 33 or something.  If we are like 34-36 at 7-8pm or something like that it would be a pretty big model bust.  Of course models do bust so it could happen.

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I think immediate DC metro has quite a while (6 hours +) before going above freezing even if DCA goes to 33.  Could be wrong of course.

That's probably true. HRRR isn't till like 2a or beyond. I'm not sure we'll see a whole ton of precip before it warms up.. but I should stop making predictions on this one perhaps. :P

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Radar filling in here but we are already mixing with sleet during the light returns.

yea that's why I was pessimistic last night. The initial wave was going to our south and once the main band started to move north so was the warm air so it would be a quick transition even up here. Nothing to slow it down now that the storm to our west is lifting north.
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You may not be that far off, especially for the overnight ratios.  I read LWX updates that mentioned 20:1 ratios in some reports. 

 

Thanks.  That's good to know.  Some of my measurements were actually a little above 20:1.

 

Snow has stopped for now.  I'm still at about 2 1/4", maybe 2 3/8", but there has been some compacting.  I just tried measuring ratios again, and it's now closer to 14:1. 

 

12z RGEM ensemble got icier for DC.

 

g3elJQ0.png

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That's probably true. HRRR isn't till like 2a or beyond. I'm not sure we'll see a whole ton of precip before it warms up.. but I should stop making predictions on this one perhaps. :P

 

I think you've handled this event pretty well.  When you stick your neck out there with very specific, detailed predictions starting a week out, like some of us do, there are going to be some stumbles along the way.  It was a complicated event.  I didn't pay any attention to the JB's of the world, but as far as the people in this forum, we are a talented group.  Collectively we've done well with a complex event.

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Same. What was your total? I've been out all day and just wanted to see how the northerners made out.

 

1.6" total here. Lower than I thought it would be, but oh well.

 

officially 1" here. never really got under any good bands. all good though, adds to the stats. 

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I said a few days ago watch for a wave going to our south then the main storm cuts west. I'm glad it got the dc area pretty good though. And Wes deserved a good event.

well i think most people thought it was going to snow before the storm even though a few folks were trying to act like they were the only ones calling for snow. i do recall that though, and perhaps was closest to actual evolution of most of us. still don't feel like anyone bit on the southern bullseye really.. nor hit on the higher totals.

 

actually in the end for DC this will probably end up fairly close to how many of us expected but on the higher side maybe.

 

there was probably too much focus on the main low.. though the spinsters will just pretend that doesn't happen lol.

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I said a few days ago watch for a wave going to our south then the main storm cuts west. I'm glad it got the dc area pretty good though. And Wes deserved a good event.

You did well for this area. Shouldn't you have a red tag?

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Going with 3.25. Seems to have packed down some. Some light freezing rain/drizzle. Temp has been stuck at 26 for a couple hours.

Today was a major win imo. Cold smoke most of the night. That was beautiful. Then today was great. Stayed cold all day. I definitely was able to enjoy my snow. I had a ton of fun in this one. I was out cutting trees down at 9 this morning lol.

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