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President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Meaningful ice is more rare around here than a two foot HECS. So I highly doubt this will amount to much in the corridor. Maybe I'll be wrong.

 

Depends how you define meaningful ice. I've had a quarter inch or more of ice three times in the last two years. No one is saying this will cause mass power outages or cripple travel.

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really think the energy on that topic should be about moving the official location. maybe to the White House or somewhere that's always staffed and has people that can be trained to measure.

Dca seems like a bad location, and the measuring question just seem to persist

This is the ultimate solution. No longer is DCA a representative location at which to measure. Partly due to incompetence, partly due to location.

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mcd0102.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0102

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1246 PM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 151846Z - 152345Z

SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE

NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO

A PERIOD OF SLEET TO THEN FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS

AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO SEVERAL

HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...AS A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE ROUNDS THE BASE OF A BROAD

EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...A TIGHTENING HEIGHT GRADIENT ALOFT WILL

ENCOURAGE STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AND CONTINUED/INCREASING

ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS A

RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARDS

SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING WARM-AIR

ADVECTION ALOFT...A MELTING LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS QUICKLY

NORTH...RESULTING IN A CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET...FOLLOWED

BY FREEZING RAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. KDOX CC DATA

CURRENTLY DEPICT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MELTING LAYER

STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN DELAWARE W/NWWD TO NEAR DC. BASED ON KFCX

DATA...THIS TRANSITION ZONE THEN BENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS

LEWISBURG WV. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THIS TRANSITION ZONE WILL ADVANCE

MORE RAPIDLY N/NW OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FREEZING RAIN

LIKELY OVERSPREADING THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM DC TO NYC OVER THE NEXT

FEW HOURS. INTO THIS EVENING...SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PA WILL ALSO

TRANSITION TO MIXED PRECIPITATION AS THE MELTING LAYER PUSHES

FARTHER N/NW. FREEZING RAIN RATES UPWARDS OF SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF

AN INCH PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...SFC

WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL GRADUALLY RAISE TEMPS ABOVE

FREEZING...RESULTING IN A TRANSITION TO RAIN.

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Congrats to Fredericksburg and southern MD! You folks truly deserve deep snow!

 

I have 5 inches on the nose and a winter storm warning to boot!

 

Very VERY happy with this storm and this winter in general!

 

Bring on the ice!

 

ICE, ICE BABY!

 

Official Challenge: Everyone needs to enjoy a genuine Ice Jebwalk tonight once it gets outright dangerous.

What say you?

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Congrats to Fredericksburg and southern MD! You folks truly deserve deep snow!

I have 5 inches on the nose and a winter storm warning to boot!

Very VERY happy with this storm and this winter in general!

Bring on the ice!

ICE, ICE BABY!

Nice Jeb! I knew you were going to do well after watching the radar last night. Much better than us in Jefferson county where you said you wished you were last night!
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There is absolutely no way that's accurate.  I measured 4" and a trained spotter a mile from DCA measured the same as of me.  I'm 3 miles to the SW of DCA. 

 

This isn't even a complicated storm to measure.  I feel like they are passive-aggressively retaliating for all the Blizzard push back.  I mean, I am near downtown DC and have 3.5", and that is depth.  I never swept or anything.  So there is some compaction.  

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Congrats to Fredericksburg and southern MD! You folks truly deserve deep snow!

 

I have 5 inches on the nose and a winter storm warning to boot!

 

Very VERY happy with this storm and this winter in general!

 

Bring on the ice!

 

ICE, ICE BABY!

 

Official Challenge: Everyone needs to enjoy a genuine Ice Jebwalk tonight once it gets outright dangerous.

What say you?

Challenge accepted!

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Congrats to Fredericksburg and southern MD! You folks truly deserve deep snow!

I have 5 inches on the nose and a winter storm warning to boot!

Very VERY happy with this storm and this winter in general!

Bring on the ice!

ICE, ICE BABY!

Official Challenge: Everyone needs to enjoy a genuine Ice Jebwalk tonight once it gets outright dangerous.

What say you?

5"? Nice, Jebman. Enjoy your fresh powder. I've got about 4" here. Beautiful day, and I agree. It's been a great winter. Definitely one to remember. Hopefully we can pull off one more before she goes into the record books.
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This isn't even a complicated storm to measure.  I feel like they are passive-aggressively retaliating for all the Blizzard push back.  I mean, I am near downtown DC and have 3.5", and that is depth.  I never swept or anything.  So there is some compaction.  

 

I agree. they have to be trolling at this point. Every single storm is a laughable measurement.

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Couldn't decide the right play so just went ahead and shoveled. It will get really icy for sure because surfaces are very cold. But it should be easier to deal with once temps go above freezing. 

 

Still lightly snowing. I have 2.9". I can't seem to crack 3. Maybe with a burst before the flip. 

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Couldn't decide the right play so just went ahead and shoveled. It will get really icy for sure because surfaces are very cold. But it should be easier to deal with once temps go above freezing. 

 

Still lightly snowing. I have 2.9". I can't seem to crack 3. Maybe with a burst before the flip. 

It is also still lightly snowing here even though radar is basically showing nothing overhead.

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About 2.25" here and 25 degrees.

 

I tried to measure ratios by melting down some snow, and I got values close to 20:1.  That seems a little high to me.  I took a few measuments, but my method might not be very accurate.

 

You may not be that far off, especially for the overnight ratios.  I read LWX updates that mentioned 20:1 ratios in some reports. 

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It is also still lightly snowing here even though radar is basically showing nothing overhead.

 

It's a very wintry scene out there. It only took me 20 minutes to shovel because it was so fluffy. I thought it was pretty cool that the needles falling dusted everything back up by the time I went inside. 

 

Looks like the leading edge of the next round "should" be snow. I just want to bank 3". How much did you get?

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