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President's Day Storm Obs & Nowcasting


nj2va

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Just got up. Impressive... surprised how well this first part of the event is doing. I'm not a very good snow forecaster when it comes to details. :P

I think the jack zones are benefitting 2 ways. Qpf under done a little but ratios most likely a good bit above 10:1. Wouldn't be surprised at 15:1 or maybe even higher.

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Super light snow here.  Another western fringe-job.

 

I guess the one thing we can look forward to is we will flip later than everyone else. But we lost a lot QPF to being fringed. The models actually showed us getting fringed pretty well over the past couple of days so it was modeled. Looks like it should start here again within the next hour or so.

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mcd0100.gif

 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0100
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 AM CST MON FEB 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA AND SRN MD

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 151452Z - 151845Z

SUMMARY...A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF VA AND SOUTHERN MD INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH
QUICKLY...WHILE SNOW WILL REMAIN MORE COMMON ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF FAR WESTERN VA. FREEZING RAIN RATES OF SEVERAL
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH PER HOUR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.

DISCUSSION...POLARIMETRIC RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A MELTING LAYER
AROUND 5000 FT AGL RAPIDLY ADVANCING NORTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN/CENTRAL VA. FARTHER WEST...THIS LINE IS ONLY MAKING SLOWER
ADVANCES N/NW...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE VA/WV BORDER
REMAINING AS SNOW. THIS EXPANSIVE AREA OF PCPN IS BEING AIDED BY WAA
CENTERED AROUND 850 MB...AS RECENT AKQ VWP DATA CONFIRM STRONG
VEERING WITH HEIGHT IN THE LOWEST 2 KM. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS MIXED PCPN WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD...LIKELY
CHARACTERIZED BY A QUICK TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN FREEZING RAIN
AS THE WARM NOSE ALOFT DEEPENS OVERHEAD. INDEED...CC/ZDR DATA
DISPLAY A DOWNWARD-DESCENDING MELTING LAYER ON THE NORTH EDGE OF THE
WARM NOSE /KFVX E-NEWD TO KMFV AS OF 1430Z/...SUGGESTIVE OF A NARROW
ZONE OF ICE-PELLET POTENTIAL. THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO FREEZING
RAIN IS ANTICIPATED...WITH FREEZING RAIN RATES OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

..PICCA.. 02/15/2016

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