nj2va Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Post your obs and short range model discussion here. Latest HRRR has some light snow showers in the area around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Clouds slowly advancing through WV now. Could be a strong sunset for some in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't think any of the precip through 08z reaches the ground in the Baltimore area. All those pretty shades of blue will be eaten alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sunny... with a whole flock of robins on the front lawn... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 HRRR does get some of that front running stuff to the ground. Verbatim someone could get 1". I wonder about it though.. the main body is still well west. Radar looks like at least 10-12 hours or so to start time to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 45/38 and rain In 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RAP has that little finger develop over the area around midnight too. Kind of in the squeeze zone between departing high and arriving precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DPs still below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Juicy radar. With this dry air I hope we dont lose a lot to virga: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem gives dc and south a half inch of snow by 1am. It seems too early to me but other guidance has it too. I would think dry air would keep the brakes on early accums like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some hint of a frontogenic zone trying to set up where the RAP/HRRR show that band around midnight.. sort of parallels the Potomac on them. SPC mesoanalysis shows it a bit. RAP has the band for 2-3 hours then a break before the main activity moves in around sunrise. HRRR seems to hint at the same thing but doesn't go as far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 snowing at a good clip in cincinnati right now, fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 High clouds over spread the sky here about 2 hours ago. Now bands of altostratus moving in from the SW. Calm winds and 22/ -3. Baro 30.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z 5km HI-RES NMM is best case scenario if we want lots of snow and ice... keeps the area below freezing through 12z TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12z 5k HI-RES NMM is best case scenario if we want lots of snow and ice... keeps the area below freezing through 12z TUEDon't really have time to check. Out in Bowie this afternoon. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Don't really have time to check. Out in Bowie this afternoon. Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 20z RAP still has that finger of 1-2" of snow in N VA at the end of its run by 12z.... looks similar to the 19z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Clear skies overhead here in Media Delaware County, PA but there are high clouds gathering in the skies to the west-southwest. 19f 21% humidity dew point -12f wind north at 15 mph pressure 30.51 steady. That dew point -12f will be a killer here for snow but may bring more ice with that profile later in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 20z RAP still has that finger of 1-2" of snow in N VA at the end of its run by 12z.... looks similar to the 19z run Don't see it on the 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Very light snow just began here. 20 degrees, DP at 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 and the Hi-Res Window ARW is the worst case scenario with the morning snow basically hitting a brick wall at the Potomac 12z 5km HI-RES NMM is best case scenario if we want lots of snow and ice... keeps the area below freezing through 12z TUE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 N VA/C MD jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 There is some hint of a frontogenic zone trying to set up where the RAP/HRRR show that band around midnight.. sort of parallels the Potomac on them. SPC mesoanalysis shows it a bit. RAP has the band for 2-3 hours then a break before the main activity moves in around sunrise. HRRR seems to hint at the same thing but doesn't go as far. 21z RAP hints at it as well around 11pm-2am... so does 21z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It will be interesting if ratios can start out higher than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
randy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 light-moderate snow...17/2 cold enough to stick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 N VA/C MD jackpot 20zRAP2-14-16.png Got a newer one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Got a newer one? Not yet... getting them from here - http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not yet... getting them from here - http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RAP/ Thanks Yoda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Didn't take much time for snow to make it to the surface once the more solid returns were overhead. Already have a coating on sidewalks/roads etc. Down to 19 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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