Are freezing rain events the weather political divide?

[gymengineer]

So now it seems like every single time a model shows ZR for any length of time, someone chimes in about how modeled ice storms always fail, and someone else describes a legit ice storm they experienced recently. 

 

Can we actually discuss the topic, given the wealth of collective memory we have about freezing rain events? One side says confidently that ice storms as modeled never verify. The other side points to the examples where the models went to 32F+ ahead of what actually verified, so an ice storm actually happened regardless of the modeling.

 

I have plenty of data about 12/7-8/13, 2/5/14, and 3/1/15, so I have an opinion already about this topic. But I want to know what you all think first. 

 

 

 

 

[dailylurker]

Most of the freezing rain events I've seen were CAD that was stubborn to break. That's a typical setup in these parts. We're way better at HECS then ice storms imo (DC metro).

[HighStakes]

Without getting into details about any specific events I will say some of the worst situations occur when we have very light zr that was not forecasted on a frozen ground following a prolonged period of very cold temps like we're experiencing now.

 

I think those in the camp that say ice storms never materialize as modeled or aren't possible in the metro areas think the storm has to reach 1994 levels to be significant. Some people think that if cars are going off the road everywhere somehow the storm doesn't count. To me if there is .25 of an inch of ice on trees and surfaces that's pretty bad. 

[Ian]

I barely remember last year's apparently high end ice storm in the city... so we must not get many. Mar 1 was kinda cool since we had legit ice after sunrise in March.

 

People are so dramatic about ice threats is my main beef with them. Ice storms that cripple the area, at least right around DC, seem extremely infrequent.

[Deck Pic]

I barely remember last year's apparently high end ice storm in the city... so we must not get many. Mar 1 was kinda cool since we had legit ice after sunrise in March.

 

People are so dramatic about ice threats is my main beef with them. Ice storms that cripple the area, at least right around DC, seem extremely infrequent.

 

 

So now it seems like every single time a model shows ZR for any length of time, someone chimes in about how modeled ice storms always fail, and someone else describes a legit ice storm they experienced recently. 

 

Can we actually discuss the topic, given the wealth of collective memory we have about freezing rain events? One side says confidently that ice storms as modeled never verify. The other side points to the examples where the models went to 32F+ ahead of what actually verified, so an ice storm actually happened regardless of the modeling.

 

I have plenty of data about 12/7-8/13, 2/5/14, and 3/1/15, so I have an opinion already about this topic. But I want to know what you all think first. 

 

I've been mixing up 2/21 and 3/1....3/1 was clearly the better ice event, even though no measurable snow on the front end...not that different of a setup from this one either...retreating high, low to our SW, though of course important details differed

[hosj III]

The derision ice storms get in this sub is a little excessive. Unless I am mis-remembering, 12/13, 2/14, and 3/15 were never predicted to cripple travel for days or cause mass power outages. They were all predicted to snarl traffic the next day, which they by and large did, and make the trees look pretty, which the absolutely did. Maybe a big reason why ice events don't live up to expectations is the assumption some make that modeled QPF at any freezing temps is accretion. 1" of liquid in three hours at 32 is not an inch of ice accretion.

[real]

The derision ice storms get in this sub is a little excessive. Unless I am mis-remembering, 12/13, 2/14, and 3/15 were never predicted to cripple travel for days or cause mass power outages. They were all predicted to snarl traffic the next day, which they by and large did, and make the trees look pretty, which the absolutely did. Maybe a big reason why ice events don't live up to expectations is the assumption some make that modeled QPF at any freezing temps is accretion. 1" of liquid in three hours at 32 is not an inch of ice accretion.

 

Ice storms/freezing rains, when predicted ahead of time, almost never end up causing major troubles on the highways around here.  By their nature, ice storms usually occur when temps are in the upper 20s to low 30s. That is a sweet spot for salt to work, and for it remain effective for a good bit of time.  Plus, sometimes when rain is falling heavy, it falls so fast it runs off instead of freezing. Yes, schools will close and people will freak out like the roads will be horrible. But that is rarely justified, unless the concern is also sidewalks. The only events that cause big problems for travel are the surprise freezing drizzle events that hit before roads pre-treated or salt trucks mobilized.  February 2008 when the Mixing Bowl in Northern Virginia froze over is example, but that was probably the last bad highway event from ice and that was already 8 years ago.

[MN Transplant]

What people end up forgetting is that for freezing rain to cause a lot of problems in most places requires temps to be below 28 or so and the long-lasting moderate precip.  We just don't get that combo much in the immediate DC area. 

[mattie g]

Freezing rain is miserable for all kinds of reasons, not the least of which is a wasted cold air/precip combo. No wonder it can cause people to be grumpy.

[eurojosh]

Freezing rain events are the Ted Cruz of weather, so unlikeable that even those who prefer rain to snow can't stand them. They shut the government down for no good reason, want to cut off people's support from underneath them, and sometimes come from Canada.

[eurojosh]

NAM forecasts on the other hand are the Donald Trump of weather. The Euro and the GFS spend a long time making reasonable forecasts then along comes the NAM at the last minute promising something yuge it can't possibly deliver, and people fall for it every time.

[snowfan]

Ian is right. The cities don't do big damaging ice events. 3/1 was the best in a long time. Two years ago there was one that caused a good bit of tree damage in the burbs, but wasn't a big deal in the cities.

[EastCoast NPZ]

NAM forecasts on the other hand are the Donald Trump of weather. The Euro and the GFS spend a long time making reasonable forecasts then along comes the NAM at the last minute promising something yuge it can't possibly deliver, and people fall for it every time.

 

You mean like "affordable" health care?  And shouldn't the oceans have stopped rising by now?

[stormtracker]

The derision ice storms get in this sub is a little excessive. Unless I am mis-remembering, 12/13, 2/14, and 3/15 were never predicted to cripple travel for days or cause mass power outages. They were all predicted to snarl traffic the next day, which they by and large did, and make the trees look pretty, which the absolutely did. Maybe a big reason why ice events don't live up to expectations is the assumption some make that modeled QPF at any freezing temps is accretion. 1" of liquid in three hours at 32 is not an inch of ice accretion.

It's really derisive and overly so.   I used to get chided because of my genuine worry regarding ice storms when i live in Hagerstown.  There's a difference between concern over an ice storm and believing one will occur.   When I was in HGR, I owned a home plus I drove for work a lot, thus my concern.   Now, I live in the city, powerlines mostly underground and I take the subway...now, I have zero concern about an ice storm and would love to have one.   I'm just being honest.    Your situation determines your level of concern and I'm not going to deride somebody's legit concern because I was there at one point.

[Bob Chill]

I'm patiently waiting for a foot of ice. Anything less than that is garden variety and boring

[Ian]

It's really derisive and overly so.   I used to get chided because of my genuine worry regarding ice storms when i live in Hagerstown.  There's a difference between concern over an ice storm and believing one will occur.   When I was in HGR, I owned a home plus I drove for work a lot, thus my concern.   Now, I live in the city, powerlines mostly underground and I take the subway...now, I have zero concern about an ice storm and would love to have one.   I'm just being honest.    Your situation determines your level of concern and I'm not going to deride somebody's legit concern because I was there at one point.

That's a valid point but people are still too dramatic. I realize if you have to drive in it, could suck a big one even with a little.... but our typical bad ice storm is like 1/4-1/2" which does not cause major problems as far as outages etc. Still people freak for days and stuff. I guess part of me has never bought "concern" from a weather weenie. We love extreme ****.

[MacintoshPro]

That's a valid point but people are still too dramatic. I realize if you have to drive in it, could suck a big one even with a little.... but our typical bad ice storm is like 1/4-1/2" which does not cause major problems as far as outages etc. Still people freak for days and stuff. I guess part of me has never bought "concern" from a weather weenie. We love extreme ****.

 

 

Before the blizzard, anytime somebody said "I don't really want 3 feet of snow, think of the damage!", I thought in my head "Haha, the GFS gave me a huge deform band and I got 3 feet, suck it dryslotters!". Everybody who likes snow on this board wants 3 feet of snow.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

"Ice storms are no big deal" is one of the usual forum mantras repeated here along with "It can't snow in March because sun angle" blah blah... makes me realize that few posters probably lived here in 1994.

 

One of the big ice storms in '94 I remember was supposed to changeover to rain and never did- was it 1/17/94? I think that was the one. I know that one had the record cold outbreak afterwards that kept it iced over (and me off from school) for a week.

[EastCoast NPZ]

The only ice events that I've ever seen cause trouble here are the surprise events.  Road salt is 100% effective at the range of temps encountered in these instances.  The only concern when traveling is whether you pass through an untreated area.  

 

Now, a few weeks ago we had a freezing fog event here which turned patches of roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots very treacherous.  Lots of wrecks on area roads that morning.  My driveway has about 10% grade.  That morning I stepped down onto from my stoop sidewalk and slowly slid the entire way down the driveway, went right past our cars, all the way down to the street.  Nothing i could do but ride it out.  Only way to get back up was through the grass.  The glaze was probably only microns thick, but it was as slick as anything I've seen.  There was no precip involved, so the roads were never treated, and the effects were only patchy.  Had roads been treated, it would have been nothing.

 

I grew up out in eastern Warren Co (with a bit of elevation).  I can recall some decent ice storms, but don't recall ever even losing power, and out there (and back then) it was easy to lose power.  We were without power for 1 full week after the Oct. '79 snow.  

[MN Transplant]

The only ice events that I've ever seen cause trouble here are the surprise events.  Road salt is 100% effective at the range of temps encountered in these instances.  The only concern when traveling is whether you pass through an untreated area.  

 

Now, a few weeks ago we had a freezing fog event here which turned patches of roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots very treacherous.  Lots of wrecks on area roads that morning.  My driveway has about 10% grade.  That morning I stepped down onto from my stoop sidewalk and slowly slid the entire way down the driveway, went right past our cars, all the way down to the street.  Nothing i could do but ride it out.  Only way to get back up was through the grass.  The glaze was probably only microns thick, but it was as slick as anything I've seen.  There was no precip involved, so the roads were never treated, and the effects were only patchy.  Had roads been treated, it would have been nothing.

 

I grew up out in eastern Warren Co (with a bit of elevation).  I can recall some decent ice storms, but don't recall ever even losing power, and out there (and back then) it was easy to lose power.  We were without power for 1 full week after the Oct. '79 snow.  

 

Had something similar in MN in the early-mid 90s.  Steep driveway that I couldn't walk up.  Ended up going through the grass.  Unfortunately, we had about 6" of snowcover and a nasty ice layer on top, and I ended up bruising my shins on the walk to the house.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

The only ice events that I've ever seen cause trouble here are the surprise events.  Road salt is 100% effective at the range of temps encountered in these instances.  The only concern when traveling is whether you pass through an untreated area.  

 

Now, a few weeks ago we had a freezing fog event here which turned patches of roadways, sidewalks, and parking lots very treacherous.  Lots of wrecks on area roads that morning.  My driveway has about 10% grade.  That morning I stepped down onto from my stoop sidewalk and slowly slid the entire way down the driveway, went right past our cars, all the way down to the street.  Nothing i could do but ride it out.  Only way to get back up was through the grass.  The glaze was probably only microns thick, but it was as slick as anything I've seen.  There was no precip involved, so the roads were never treated, and the effects were only patchy.  Had roads been treated, it would have been nothing.

 

I grew up out in eastern Warren Co (with a bit of elevation).  I can recall some decent ice storms, but don't recall ever even losing power, and out there (and back then) it was easy to lose power.  We were without power for 1 full week after the Oct. '79 snow.  

 

In Jan. '94 I remember the salt not working- of course, we had single digit highs and below zero lows, which is unlikely to ever happen again in conjunction with an ice storm... I hope.

[gymengineer]

As people have described, there are two primary impacts of ZR events-- iced over roads and power outages. They don't intersect that often in our area. The light glaze events (like the start of the Super Tuesday 2/08 event with the Mixing Bowl ramp debacle) tend to be the worst for traffic. Even in the two most significant ice storms in 1/94 were ok on treated roads; in 1/27-28/94, our windshield wipers had trouble making it across the windshield as ice was starting to form on the glass. I saw that happen too on 1/26/04 with the light freezing rain in the afternoon (before the changeover back to snow). 

 

In the Super Tuesday '08 event, once the precip got heavier the glazing on trees and sidewalks continued but the roads started getting better as temps rose towards freezing. 

 

As for widespread power outages, these are not common in this subforum. Maybe one every 5-7 years or so? 2/14 was a >40% power outage for much of the northern tier of this subforum. The Valentine's sleet storm in '07 was a huge outage in PG and AA counties. 1/99 was PEPCO's biggest outage, with widespread transformer damage in MoCo, until Tropical Storm Isabel. 2/94 (also a sleet storm in the DC area) was a generational-type power outage event in Southern MD. 

 

Modeling in the recent events worked out pretty well within 24-hrs, especially the colder ones. But doing a model blend in the mid-range just doesn't work as well. There are a couple of exceptions I can think of when the warmer models work out, but some of the models are still just flat out wrong when it comes to transition time in ZR cases and driving 50+F temps into the very shallow wedge. So, in the end, while the wedge eventually breaks down and it doesn't matter too much in terms of the idea that rain is rain and it's all melting, I think one reason many people focus on ZR when it shows up at all on models is that it's one of the very few situations where weenies can see 'victories.' This area still regularly sees *upgrades* (to WSW, for example) during mid-storm with marginal ice events, like last March. It's the pet-cause for optimists.

[MN Transplant]

As people have described, there are two primary impacts of ZR events-- iced over roads and power outages. They don't intersect that often in our area. The light glaze events (like the start of the Super Tuesday 2/08 event with the Mixing Bowl ramp debacle) tend to be the worst for traffic. Even in the two most significant ice storms in 1/94 were ok on treated roads; in 1/27-28/94, our windshield had trouble making it across the windshield as ice was starting to form on the windshield. I saw that happen too on 1/26/04 with the light freezing rain in the afternoon (before the changeover back to snow). 

 

I just gotta ask...

[gymengineer]

I just gotta ask...

Oops- the wipers.

[gymengineer]

LOL at the obs thread. Red state/blue state stuff No middle ground apparently. 

[Ian]

LOL at the obs thread. Red state/blue state stuff No middle ground apparently. 

You're the cold sidewalk man aren't you?. This was a good cold ground event -- I'll give it that. Not too common you get iced over everything here. Otherwise, not a big ice event even by DC standards (we tend to get at least one or two light icings a winter).

 

Part of the problem is everything is framed as extreme these days. Some of want to keep those meanings real.

[gymengineer]

You're the cold sidewalk man aren't you?. This was a good cold ground event -- I'll give it that. Not too common you get iced over everything here. Otherwise, not a big ice event even by DC standards (we tend to get at least one or two light icings a winter).

 

Part of the problem is everything is framed as extreme these days. Some of want to keep those meanings real.

Cold sidewalks in a >32F rain after an arctic outbreak is something different, but yes, I've written about that before.

 

For ZR events, my point of view is that either of the two categories--glazed over side-streets/sidewalks or power outages--are worthy of consideration when actually analyzing what the models are showing, but it's better to focus in on one instead of being non-specific. "Ice storm" doesn't mean the same thing to different people. And the NWS definition when Ice Storm Warnings existed was the 0.25" accrual threshold, but verification didn't take into consideration if the roads were impacted at all. So, I'm actually interested in which set of conditions affected road surfaces vs. tree limbs or both. 

[Ian]

There are still ice storm warnings, OK had a few this winter earlier in the season. We seem to very infrequently get a straight up big ice storm that is nothing else so it's usually lumped into a WSW probably.

 

I don't really care what people call them to be honest. The trying to score points because someone was wrong or called something wrong is the bigger issue. Ice threats seem to bring out the worst in everyone here. I'm not sure why it matters to someone in the western burbs if I say the ice isn't a big deal in the city anyway. I'm undoubtedly biased in my view by the fact that I saw relatively large ice storms in CT with some frequency before moving here. Only one was truly terrible and it dropped 1.25-1.5" of ice. It doesn't take much but it's generally an inconvenience around here more than anything else though of course people 'need' to be out in it so stupid stuff happens.

[kurtstack]

Does 3-4" of sleet qualify?  We had that back in the late 80s, or early 90s, hell if I can remember, but I do remember the TV mets were calling for 6-12" of snow.  It never snowed, just sleeted for 12 straight hours.  I've never seen so much sleet before or since that one.