yuki neko Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The NAM and CMC have high centers over NE which gives us a more traditional CAD signature before it moves off the coast. The GFS has an extra high center off the Mid Atlantic coast. Probably drives winds more southerly, scouring out the cold quicker. ETA: CMC just caved... Nothing left to hug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC finally starting to get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC finally starting to get a clue. Just a matter of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Question here... Wouldn't we need an nice high pressure in the correct spot for CAD... I do not believe we have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Other than some wobbles in track and strength of the low, the euro has remained quite consistent irt sensible wx here. That's the primary reason I've only focused on what we can squeeze out before the inevitable flip. Gfs backed down a little. Not a fan of that. Pretty much my thinking as well. A little something on the front end, inch or two, a brief transition to sleet, freezing rain quickly turning over to rain. Now I am beginning to have my doubts on the front end as I see that slowly going away. I am wondering though if this setup has the makings of a fairly significant ice storm for the far western suburbs abutting the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 can we get this to trend better for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 CMC finally starting to get a clue. But still would offer a severaal inches of snow, quite a bit of ice and then the deluge on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 But still would offer a severaal inches of snow, quite a bit of ice and then the deluge on Tuesday. Track and timing pretty close to GFS but it's colder further east into Tue morning. Gotta think it'll correct more west with that still. I just don't really see how the cold will hold well east of the BR in this setup. But perhaps I'm being dumb not to hedge a bit. Weaker low does make you wonder a bit I suppose, though if it goes right over us there's only so much we can do to stay cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Question here... Wouldn't we need an nice high pressure in the correct spot for CAD... I do not believe we have that. Hard to have CAD with the High moving due east before the low approaches. End up with strong SE winds and cold is easily scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm seeing GFS snow from hr. 48 to hr. 63 so 3" to 5" and perhaps 4" to 6" and then a winter of '94 glaze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm not saying the NAM is right in the least, but I think it's funny how it is getting trashed while people are hugging the RGEM, which was awful with the last storm. I had 0 inches. Still wondering where my other 6-12 went. Also, I wouldn't hold my breath on the backlash snows. I've seen models show that so many times before and you end up getting some flurries or pity snow at the end that doesn't accumulate at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Track and timing pretty close to GFS but it's colder further east into Tue morning. Gotta think it'll correct more west with that still. I just don't really see how the cold will hold well east of the BR in this setup. But perhaps I'm being dumb not to hedge a bit. Weaker low does make you wonder a bit I suppose, though if it goes right over us there's only so much we can do to stay cold. I agree with you and still think the Euro and its babies will end up more right than the GFS. Luckily, we don't have to do a snow map until tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm not saying the NAM is right in the least, but I think it's funny how it is getting trashed while people are hugging the RGEM, which was awful with the last storm. I had 0 inches. Still wondering where my other 6-12 went. Also, I wouldn't hold my breath on the backlash snows. I've seen models show that so many times before and you end up getting some flurries or pity snow at the end that doesn't accumulate at all. No reason to buy back end snows, rarely works around here...even if it did, it would still be mid 30s so it probably wouldnt accumulate much anyway. I think 1-3" for the cities is the best we can hope for before it gets all washed away by 7AM Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Back end snow is a ghost. Especially close to the cities. NW winds rolling down the PA mountains then parrs then the piedmont almost always cause things to dry out quick. Even nice track storms fizzle quick when winds turn nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The one constant is the deluge. There's no avoiding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Uk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Hopefully we dry slot or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Uk? 998 W NC at 72 985 in Quebec at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ukie and euro have been quite steady with a fairly strong storm and west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. It's almost comical. As a (former) remote sensing guy, it is cringe worthy every time I hear it. Out in the twitterverse, it makes me chuckle but when I see it in here, not so much. They know better by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Feels like a Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ive got a feeling that this storm is going to bust a lot of forecasts out there. Best of luck to you mets out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like NAM/GGEM/para GFS/para EURO are the "snowiest" models re thump while GFS/EURO/UKIE are the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gefs looks weird. Mean snow down to 2" but not from a shift west but from the looks of it just a weak system on most of the runs. Many have the best snow across our area but it's only 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gonna be hard to stay motivated when dr no arrives in 40 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Gefs looks weird. Mean snow down to 2" but not from a shift west but from the looks of it just a weak system on most of the runs. Many have the best snow across our area but it's only 2-4". image.jpg At this point, 2-4 front end before mixing seems like the best bet. 2 in close to the cities, 4 in the favored locales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 this winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 At this point, 2-4 front end before mixing seems like the best bet. 2 in close to the cities, 4 in the favored locales. Could be a stretch to get even that much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think now that the dump may be negligible 1-2, if that. Don't like the runs today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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