H2O Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is drier thru 54....850 line up here by 60 Mikethemanatee won't hug this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sorry, I'll stick to obs. Still trying to learn. Signed, just a dumb plow driver..... Nah, don't be offended. The "sampling thing" happens to be a pet peeve of mine, particularly when parroted by mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 look away. ugly run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is a nice thump of 2-4"... looks like it changes to ZR for a bit before the surface torches and everybody goes to plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is a nice thump of 2-4"... looks like it changes to ZR for a bit before the surface torches and everybody goes to plain rain. Maybe if you hug the snow maps...I dont like the prospects for 2-4" for DC-Balt based on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Mikethemanatee won't hug this run Lol. You're right. All I do is hug the GFS, NAM, para GFS, GGEM, Para Euro, 4k NAM that give us 2-4". I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Too bad it's not over their mouths Wait until the models show this thing as a dried prune tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think most people that say that stuff here just do so because they read it some place. If you read AFDs, its not uncommon to see mention of model guidance wrt sampling of specific features. I know I have seen it in Mount Holly AFDs a dozen times this winter. Yes many knowledgeables share that info as truth. Too many. I think mainly they are not considering the vast increase in NWP over the past decade or two. One of those things that once might have been more true than it is now. Sort of just stuck with people. Extra sampling is mostly for QC etc I think. It's also a good PR move when gov can say they are pulling out all the stops to nail the forecast. Think there's probably value just not in the way most people assume. Severe wx outbreaks somewhat different as 18z special soundings can give local insights on hotspots that might be otherwise missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol there was a storm in 2012 I think similar to this where we got screwed because the frontrunner waa snow went south of us. Central va got 3-5" from that. Then the main low bombed up west and by the time that got precip in it was changing to rain. Just something to look out for. I am becoming interested in that trailing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Maybe if you hug the snow maps...I dont like the prospects for 2-4" for DC-Balt based on that run DC gets 0.3" of precipitation with temperatures at or below freezing from 12z Monday to 00z Tuesday in the form of snow, taking this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I also think Dry air is going to be an issue particularly for the "early" stuff on Monday...light precip isnt going to do well in my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I like being called a model hugger by saying that most models show 2-4" for DC.... look at this thread. They're are way more knowledgeable people then me saying the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 DC gets 0.3" of precipitation with temperatures at or below freezing from 12z Monday to 00z Tuesday in the form of snow, taking this run verbatim. Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This sfc low is looking pretty lame in closing. But I still don't really get the ice storm talk east of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 there was a storm in 2012 I think similar to this where we got screwed because the frontrunner waa snow went south of us. Central va got 3-5" from that. Then the main low bombed up west and by the time that got precip in it was changing to rain. Just something to look out for. I am becoming interested in that trailing system. That seems to be a trend to watch with this one. I dont think the GFS gets anything significant into my area until the torch has commenced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 hmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yes many knowledgeables share that info as truth. Too many. I think mainly they are not considering the vast increase in NWP over the past decade or two. One of those things that once might have been more true than it is now. Sort of just stuck with people. Extra sampling is mostly for QC etc I think. It's also a good PR move when gov can say they are pulling out all the stops to nail the forecast. Think there's probably value just not in the way most people assume. Severe wx outbreaks somewhat different as 18z special soundings can give local insights on hotspots that might be otherwise missed. Pretty much spot on. When it is used as a broad generalization, it demonstrates a general lack of understanding in terms of how NWP models are initialized. The 18z special soundings are a good example where that extra detailed information can make a huge difference. Another good example is the set of surveillance observations that are taken from the hurricane missions. By in large, however, this kind of stuff is irrelevant to discussing broader, synoptic-scale initialization. While all mets are trained in terms of using NWP, many (most?) of them lack training in terms of how things really work under the hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS Looking closer you may be right... could be sleet showing up on the snowmaps as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 hmmmm Too bad the 32 degree line is in Harrisburg lol...I know, 93 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think the NWS has the right idea with a possible 1-3" for areas east of BR I just dont see a lot of forcing for heavy precipitate to really have a solid thump. Monday morning dews could also be an issue as I said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS It is, but who cares? This event is terrible...we're going to have a day of flurries and then once it starts coming down it will flip...I probably got more a couple hours ago when I was sleeping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like a possible warm layer to me..Im not sure hr 57 is snow, particularly for DC on the GFS It is snow... easily Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Pretty much spot on. When it is used as a broad generalization, it demonstrates a general lack of understanding in terms of how NWP models are initialized. The 18z special soundings are a good example where that extra detailed information can make a huge difference. Another good example is the set of surveillance observations that are taken from the hurricane missions. By in large, however, this kind of stuff is irrelevant to discussing broader, synoptic-scale initialization. While all mets are trained in terms of using NWP, many (most?) of them lack training in terms of how things really work under the hood. I don't know the under the hood stuff really but I'm pretty fascinated by NWP so I've read a lot about it and talked to quite a few people. Met with a modeler/forecaster in the Air Force who is a liaison to JTWC but based in DC (at the observatory)... he among others (like you) really drove home how much info we get from satellites etc with today's models. Purpose of meeting with him was largely an idea of pushing for recon to resume in the WPAC as a national security issue. He was kind enough not to laugh at me but I could sort of tell he wanted to. I've admittedly shifted my view as I've learned more as I used to just follow the line that more data is necessary. I think it's largely people not being fully informed rather than trying to spread misinfo. Would never argue for less data.. imagine it's all valuable in its own right even if just for R&D. Atlantic recon has certainly helped advance hurricane forecasting and such, though I've heard that even a lot of that data will not get assimilated these days because it doesn't line up right with what we already have. In many ways it seems recon of late is mostly for verification. Like, we'd probably not have had Patricia so intense without it and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 No change in the deepness of the low and yet we have a roughly 50 mile shift west from the 00Z run. Think we see more shifts west in the coming runs until we see a track that verifies just over DC or just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems one step up and two steps back with each run. Seems this is slowly bleeding the wrong way each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems one step up and two steps back with each run. Seems this is slowly bleeding the wrong way each run. Other than some wobbles in track and strength of the low, the euro has remained quite consistent irt sensible wx here. That's the primary reason I've only focused on what we can squeeze out before the inevitable flip. Gfs backed down a little. Not a fan of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 im riding the NAM. Gfs cant handle Cad:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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