MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ok I see now. Surface temps are 32 at hr 69 but 850s are in the mid to upper 30s. But at hr 72 surface temps are a tick above freezing while 850s have crashed below. I was mostly looking at hr 69 when it looks like we'd be getting very cold rain, but I do see that there would be some back-end snow Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In any case (and yes it's the NAM at range), snow-rain-accumulating snow is shown on models more than verifies. St. Mary's county did it well in 2/5-6/10 but of course that was a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the 2m winds on the 12z NAM, as it had with the 06z, it shows easterly winds through our region as the storm comes in locking in the cold. If I remember correctly neither the Euro or GFS are showing this and have a more southerly component to the wind field and scour out the surface fairly quickly. Don't have the CMC specifics but would not be surprised if they mirror the NAM with the easterly wind. Think that is the difference we are seeing in the possibility of an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. It looks like we're seeing some consensus with a 2-4/3-6 front end changing to a little bit of ZR and then rain. Biggest variable might be how long surface temps stay below freezing, especiallly in the N/W burbs, and where/if there will be significant ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Things look better this morning than last night when I hit the hay. 2-4 would be great with a slow transition. I cannot see a quick flip anywhere west of the bay with snow on the ground unless this really cuts west. I have lived here a long time and the CAD usually holds in these scenarios...the other scenario of waiting for the cold never works at least at my location Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? I wish I could get high resolution zoomed panels for the para. Taking a closer look it seems like the i81 zone is actually all snow. The surface is a touch marginal close to the cities for the kicker but it would be another 2-6" event across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So how much would it take for things to shift (either east or west) at this venture? Too soon. Let's look at models 12 hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. Been watching that as well. As that has progressively gotten better we have seen the initial storm fall apart. Have wondered at times if maybe we may be keying on the wrong low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Things look better this morning than last night when I hit the hay. 2-4 would be great with a slow transition. I cannot see a quick flip anywhere west of the bay with snow on the ground unless this really cuts west. I have lived here a long time and the CAD usually holds in these scenarios...the other scenario of waiting for the cold never works at least at my location Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Been watching that as well. As that has progressively gotten better we have seen the initial storm fall apart. Have wondered at times if maybe we may be keying on the wrong low.I'm mostly just concentrating on the lead stuff. That's the only part of the next 5 days that has consistency. A boring storm/period this is not. Looks unanimous now that snow breaks out from sw-ne between 11pm-2am Monday morning and stays all snow through the daylight hours. Sounds like a fantastic holiday to me After sundown Monday I'm not sure what to think...but it won't be pretty in my yard most likely but I will already have enjoyed the snow. I feel good about many of us getting more than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Seems like models have converged on at least a 2" snow in DC before the transition to rain. I'd favor the over 2" at this point if I were a betting man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Way too much dissection of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I was looking at that too Bob. The 2nd shortwave I think is being sampled but I can't confirm. Heard through grape vine on Twitter. I wonder if someone can back me up on this? From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. *sigh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 *sigh.... there must be an alarm that goes off in your head when someone says something misleading about models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 From what I understand, the 2nd sw wont be fully sampled until tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 *sigh.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 there must be an alarm that goes off in your head when someone says something misleading about models Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. I'm gonna start randomly posting about sampling and models sucking to test your theory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Either that or this kind of stuff is said so much that it doesn't matter when or how frequently I pop in. People have their hands over their ears...or eyes in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol sampled. The mets who know on that can talk forever and no one will listen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Way too much dissection of the nam Thanks H2O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 *sigh....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Of course right after my post I look at the RGEM and it flipped to bone dry through 12z mon. Lol Toss. We are in full wishful thinking mode here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 *sigh.... Sorry, I'll stick to obs. Still trying to learn. Signed, just a dumb plow driver..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol sampled. The mets who know on that can talk forever and no one will listen. I think most people that say that stuff here just do so because they read it some place. If you read AFDs, its not uncommon to see mention of model guidance wrt sampling of specific features. I know I have seen it in Mount Holly AFDs a dozen times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 People have their hands over their ears...or eyes in this case. Too bad it's not over their mouths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS is drier thru 54....850 line up here by 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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