showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ice is definitely possible. Most guidance other than the Euro keeps max temps for the event in the mid 30's and give northern md southern pa a 6 hr or longer period of zr. Probably not much of a concern for the metros but for us it could be a much different story. I think there is a very distinct possibility of a somewhat significant icing event for the farther western and northern areas. Think the surface winds will play a major part. Do we see a more easterly component to the direction of the wind where it is pushing the colder temps into the mountains vs a southerly wind that has free rein to scour out the surface? Another factor that needs to be considered besides the surface is the direction of the winds in the lower levels up to 925mb. If we have a fairly deep layer of 50+ degrees coming on southerly winds then you have the rain warming as it falls through and that can scour out the colder surface temps fairly quickly as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I can't remember the last time there was ever any ice of consequence around here...sorta like a track up the apps....rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12Z NAM is a nice front end thump for all of us. 4K looks good as well. Has snow in the area very early morning Monday. Looks like around 4" +/- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't remember the last time an ice storm was as bad as modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 12z NAM continues to support a 3-5 inch event for DC area - going by IWM. Might be closer to 2-4 in reality but a good 8/9 hour window for decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't remember the last time an ice storm was as bad as modeled. Early Feb. 2014. Awful ice storm here and for most of the suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The nam is holding that surface cold for quite a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The NAM is even a little icy into the cities... ewww Can't discount it as it does do better with CAD than the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wait is the light blue the 2m temp line? Cause that is pretty ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Some more back end snow it looks like also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't remember the last time an ice storm was as bad as modeled. Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Some more back end snow it looks like also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The NAM is nasty for Winchester/Hagerstown.. 4-5" of snow followed by a bunch of ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Wait is the light blue the 2m temp line? Cause that is pretty ugly. I think it's the other way around. 0c 850 line is farther east than surface freezing line. very cold rain or hot and heavy snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place. Think that was the storm that took down a pine onto our power line running to the house. Want to say we had .75 + inches of ice with that storm if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 so is there a real shot at some heavy snow on the backside as the 850s crash? I know the surface is a hot mess by that point, but does the idea that it could it still switch back to heavy snow have merit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
66degreesnorth Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM has light snow starting late Sunday night, throughout the day on Monday accumulating 4-8" before turning to what looks like ZR Monday night with temperatures at or just below freezing. then we dryslot. Then it has heavy rain at 32 degrees. People were saying that it was back-end snow but it looks like really cold rain, as the upper levels warm above freezing.Interesting. My criteria for a successful event would be a WSW and this would probably do the trick. Sent from my Nexus 6P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place. at the time I lived in West Chester in pa, one of the worst ice storms ive ever experienced. got about .75" of ice. just nasty didn't have power for a week. although I don't know if we will ever get an ice storm like we had in the mid 90s, that was something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 so is there a real shot at some heavy snow on the backside as the 850s crash? I know the surface is a hot mess by that point, but does the idea that it could it still switch back to heavy snow have merit? Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Early Feb. 2014. That was a pretty bad one up in Millersville. Lost a lot of trees and power was gone all over the place. Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM is all frozen in the western burbs. 3-5 of snow then ice on top. Looks nasty out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staged Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I guess I shouldn't have said back end snow, Im still learning, but thought when I saw the 0 line to the east of precip, that it was snow. Ill just keep my mouth shut and let the pros handle it lol. Still looks more then a rain storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain. im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah, that one brought down a couple of big trees here. Had to spend about a hour with the chain saw to get my neighbor out of her long driveway. About a 60 ft cherry landed right across it. Yeah. That storm was ugly in the northern tier and into Southern PA to out your way along the 81 corridor. HGR got a bunch of ZR from that too. These CAD wedges are hard to predict, but the shorter range models all seem to be leaning toward a favorable wedge for the usual spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Actually the NAM is the exact opposite. The surface is right around freezing but the 850s are still above. Thats why we have 32 degree heavy rain. People are referring to what happens between hr-69 and hr-72. Surface at 12Z Tuesday is 33-ish but 850's are back below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 im not sure thats true, this clearly shows the 850s are very cold and we are under the 534dm line, surface freezing line is well into PA however. i know im not looking at sounding so i cant see all levels, but from this map i would have thought that would be a transition back to some snow as it pulls away hmmm weatherbell has the exact opposite. 2M temps are right at 32 while 850 temps are above freezing. Are you sure the light blue line isn't surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 People are referring to what happens between hr-69 and hr-72. Surface at 12Z Tuesday is 33-ish but 850's are back below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 6z para gfs is a 3-5" front end and a pretty nasty ice storm in the favored zones. The kicker digs under us and is very close to a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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