Kat Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sref snow plumes mean total snow for DCA went up to 4.38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM is even quicker with the start of the snow Virga till 6 hours in if I'm not mistaken. But based off ground reports it wouldn't surprise me if it was a little bit earlier then that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM has a nasty dryslot in the early morning. Just south of DC in moderate snow but flurries north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawone Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sowing in Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Any chance we can lock this one to move it into the nowcasting thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol @ the 0Z NAM maximum over southern MD Where do you feel it should be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sowing in Central VA Congrats. I would suggest posting it in the obs thread so we can congratulate you when you get pummeled http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47878-presidents-day-storm-obs-nowcasting/page-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Scant precip. on the ground by 10 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Scant precip. on the ground by 10 am sn.jpg It rips through the day. Its a tick lighter than 18z, but still a 3-6" front end thump , south of far Northern MD. We do get quasi-dryslotted from 5-8 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Very strong cad showing up now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CWG upped the forecast to 3-5" in the metro areas. I would've stuck with the original numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/14/winter-storm-spreads-across-d-c-region-monday-tuesday-bringing-snow-ice-and-heavy-rain/?sdfsdfsdfsdfs?sdfsdfsdfsdfsf The late raise almost never works well. Then again my opinion doesn't really get weighted anymore for these forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Any chance we can lock this one to move it into the nowcasting thread? agree...going to discuss NAM, etc in other thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Where do you feel it should be? "Should" is not the right idea, but history shows that particular result as a rare occurrence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The late raise almost never works well. Then again my opinion doesn't really get weighted anymore for these forecasts. I don't really understand why they did it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 "Should" is not the right idea, but history shows that particular result as a rare occurrence. The models have kept the heavier precip south of us for a while now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It rips through the day. Its a tick lighter than 18z, but still a 3-6" front end thump , south of far Northern MD. We do get quasi-dryslotted from 5-8 AM. It's a much better look for your area than for those of us north of Baltimore. It's all about where you live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I don't really understand why they did itNot sure was out most of evening. Guess there was some uptick today overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 It's a much better look for your area than for those of us north of Baltimore. It's all about where you live. yeah, thats why I said south of far northern MD. You guys unfortunately get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The models have kept the heavier precip south of us for a while now. Maybe for you. I'm in the sweet spot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The late raise almost never works well. Then again my opinion doesn't really get weighted anymore for these forecasts. We should use it. I agree they usually don't which worries me but i'm not sure we had a choice once the Euro went wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 I don't really understand why they did it We're probably being stupid but saw the NAM and Euro giving a pretty good thump and the GFS forecast though lower still would generally fit within the range so it was sort of a compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We're probably being stupid but saw the NAM and Euro giving a pretty good thump and the GFS forecast though lower still would generally fit within the range so it was sort of a compromise. You may be right...this initial thump looks promising in a way it didn't yesterday. You and I could have some snow on the ground by midnight or earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 You may be right...this initial thump looks promising in a way it didn't yesterday. You and I could have some snow on the ground by midnight or earlier The radar looks like someone south of the city certainly will have snow on the ground in the not too far distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 We should use it. I agree they usually don't which worries me but i'm not sure we had a choice once the Euro went wet.Looks like I missed the email chain today. I haven't chimed in all that much really. Prob ok though did the euro really show 4-6? Seemed snow maps were too snowy given changeover time. Basically same range anyway, just does seem late shifts don't always work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Charleston band is rocking. It looks like 1" per hour stuff. Hopefully we can cash in. I think southern suburbs look more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM is moving the storm out quicker. I wonder if it might open the door for the second wave. I'm also curious to see if the keeps getting farther east. That could bring that 850 line back through out here while there's still some precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Looks like I missed the email chain today. I haven't chimed in all that much really. Prob ok though did the euro really show 4-6? Seemed snow maps were too snowy given changeover time. Basically same range anyway, just does seem late shifts don't always work out. It did bump up to 4 to 6. i think 6 is unlikely but we thought someone might in the area might get 5. As quick as the precip seems to be moving in based on radar we are OK unless it also moves out quicker than forecast which is always possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Luray and that area are doing well just now with snow definitely reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 closing this thread for obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The late raise almost never works well. Then again my opinion doesn't really get weighted anymore for these forecasts. 5-9" for a boom? What are they smoking? Wes couldnt have made that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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