CAPE Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it pleases you. Most were in full melodramatic negativity 2+ days ago and instead we do have something to follow Really? I recall most thinking there was a decent chance at a couple inches of snow on the front end followed by a mild deluge. Pretty much exactly what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours. that model sucks...unless it shows up snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Zoomed panels up for para euro. Pretty uniform precip distribution. 3" line is east of 95 and everybody west of there for the most part gets at least 3". 4" area kisses dc and runs down 95 to the south. Other 4" pocket is fdk county md. Zoomed panels up for para euro. Pretty uniform precip distribution. 3" line is east of 95 and everybody west of there for the most part gets at least 3". 4" area kisses dc and runs down 95 to the south. Other 4" pocket is fdk county md. 4 inches would of been our best storm in several winters we have had around here so i will glady take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours. Never a dull moment, it seems. Don't like seeing what's considered one of the good meso models doing that, but we'll see. Again, small oscillations one way or another seem to make big differences (like last week's snow). I guess we await the GFS now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Rgem went the other direction. General 1-3" before the flip at 21z. 95 and east above freezing by 0z and climbing quick after that. Not a great evolution either with a lull in the morning hours. Was just glancing at that. Doesn't look like much of an ice threat either. Basically snow and then rain as both the surface and 850 flip at roughly the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 In EURO/NAM we trust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Below are the MSLP tracks of the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looking at the RGEM it has to be on the far western edge of guidance for the track at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Gfs looks like an improvement snow wise especially to the s/w over VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I thought the "bet" was to get 2" by midnight tonight (the 15th), so you may be asking Mitch to take you in that case! Lmao! Nicely played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting. The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ I jumped on the 5" swath earlier this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jvash Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I'm at a loss for words myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just wanted to say I think the vast, vast majority of posters here have nothing but the highest respect for you, Wes. I also think there is also a small army of folks such as myself who rarely post because we feel we don't have the in-depth knowledge to add to the discussion, but we search for your posts because we learn every time you weigh in. For us, you are invaluable. I know that the negative comments may sting, but please don't let them drive you away from sharing your knowledge and experience. Thanks! Agree. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Lmao! Nicely played. Ha! I honestly wasn't even thinking of the double entendre when I posted that, but now that you mention it, nice catch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This will be fun for a while until it's not fun anymore. My advice is get up early and do some morning drinking. Ratios will rock from 5-9 amThis. For 3 hours it will be fun. I don't plan to miss it. Especially as it may be the last of the winter.Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This. For 3 hours it will be fun. I don't plan to miss it. Especially as it may will be the last of the winter. Sent from my SM-N920V using Tapatalk Fixed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You just love talking dirty don't you .... The low will thrust it's warm front into the arctic air mass and the interaction will be prolific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't think you ever answered when you were asked who said it wasn't going to snow three days ago? At least you eventually moved to the right sfc track with the main system. Try to re-write history as much as you want.. the proof is here that you just make stuff up. No we had the grand handwringing about the 970 in Ohio vslley moving due north but that was three days ago and you sort of hide under the unretrievablility and have a hissy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Modeling is sick these days. I'm not sure everyone realizes how good it is. The Euro is close to making a lot of people unemployed. The quiet revolution of numerical weather prediction:http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v525/n7567/full/nature14956.html We are still gaining about one extra day every decade in terms of deterministic NWP skill at medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Just wait until quantum computing becomes more mainstream... Sent from my XT1254 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The real fun starts when computers start controlling the weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CWG upped the forecast to 3-5" in the metro areas. I would've stuck with the original numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/14/winter-storm-spreads-across-d-c-region-monday-tuesday-bringing-snow-ice-and-heavy-rain/?sdfsdfsdfsdfs?sdfsdfsdfsdfsf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 The real fun starts when computers start controlling the weather People around here better get their shovels sharpened if I'm in control. 2" per day every other day from Dec to Mar. with a winter high of 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CWG upped the forecast to 3-5" in the metro areas. I would've stuck with the original numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/14/winter-storm-spreads-across-d-c-region-monday-tuesday-bringing-snow-ice-and-heavy-rain/?sdfsdfsdfsdfs?sdfsdfsdfsdfsf EURO and NAM made them raise it IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CWG upped the forecast to 3-5" in the metro areas. I would've stuck with the original numbers. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/02/14/winter-storm-spreads-across-d-c-region-monday-tuesday-bringing-snow-ice-and-heavy-rain/?sdfsdfsdfsdfs?sdfsdfsdfsdfsf Lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 i high risk, on 14 Feb 2016 - 4:14 PM, said: not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting. The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ interesting.. follow along on that 2m temperature. Nam has the whole metro right around freezing at 06z early Tues morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 NAM is even quicker with the start of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 lol @ the 0Z NAM maximum over southern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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