Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 why not. I see we all been hitting the sauce early today. I'm only watching water vapor from here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just wanted to say I think the vast, vast majority of posters here have nothing but the highest respect for you, Wes. I also think there is also a small army of folks such as myself who rarely post because we feel we don't have the in-depth knowledge to add to the discussion, but we search for your posts because we learn every time you weigh in. For us, you are invaluable. I know that the negative comments may sting, but please don't let them drive you away from sharing your knowledge and experience. Thanks!+ 1,000,0000. Wes i learned more about the weather from you than any other person. Please don't let one blowhard stop you from posting here. You are invaluable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I kind of wanted to go 2-4/3-4 for MBY, but want to remain cautious as a lot can still go wrong with getting enough moisture in here in round 1. I'm worried about models being too far north and/or radar too choppy. Less concerned about flipping too early. early to Mid afternoon seems reasonable. As has been said a bunch already but it's a bit reassuring that we start off so cold. I hate events like the last one where even when it did pulse a little and start to accumulate the soaked ground and above freezing temps zapped it within an hour after it lightened up. Not the case tomorrow. Light rates will actually accumulate. Weird huh? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I kind of wanted to go 2-4/3-4 for MBY, but want to remain cautious as a lot can still go wrong with getting enough moisture in here in round 1. I'm worried about models being too far north and/or radar too choppy. Less concerned about flipping too early. early to Mid afternoon seems reasonable. NAM precip not too much reason to get wild at this pt. HRRR/RAP don't agree so far though they do give us the finger around midnight so we'll see on that part I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like my 2" bar might come easy. 3" is winter wonderland scenery. I might have to raise the bar.I hope you are taking me to a romantic dinner with that 10K Mitch is giving you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I hope you are taking me to a romantic dinner with that 10K Mitch is giving you. I thought the "bet" was to get 2" by midnight tonight (the 15th), so you may be asking Mitch to take you in that case! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM precip not too much reason to get wild at this pt. HRRR/RAP don't agree so far though they do give us the finger around midnight so we'll see on that part I suppose.Funny, my wife gave me the finger when I suggested some post Valentines dinner activities at around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I thought the "bet" was to get 2" by midnight tonight (the 15th), so you may be asking Mitch to take you in that case! Nope it's midnight tomorrow night. Plus as much as i love Mitch, he is not my type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Funny, my wife gave me the finger when I suggested some post Valentines dinner activities at around midnight. Cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Funny, my wife gave me the finger when I suggested some post Valentines dinner activities at around midnight.So VD is just another day in your house? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Some heavy snow obs out of the precip to our west. That precip is falling into some very cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 So VD is just another day in your house?Lol, sadly yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This will be fun for a while until it's not fun anymore. My advice is get up early and do some morning drinking. Ratios will rock from 5-9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The low will thrust it's warm front into the arctic air mass and the interaction will be prolific The warm front will produce 3-5" in general area and then a little sleet but mostly freezing drizzle and drizzle and then see what happens next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nope it's midnight tomorrow night. Plus as much as i love Mitch, he is not my type. May have to rename him Bob Thrill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM precip not too much reason to get wild at this pt. HRRR/RAP don't agree so far though they do give us the finger around midnight so we'll see on that part I suppose. I'm pretty much hugging the euro (shocker). Though to the extent the other models are wet, it helps buttress the Euro solution. I'd be less bullish if the Euro was alone, but juicing up 2 runs in a row makes me feel pretty good. Still tough to go 4" when so much can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The low will thrust it's warm front into the arctic air mass and the interaction will be prolific The warm front will produce 3-5" in general area and then a little sleet but mostly freezing drizzle and drizzle and then see what happens next What happens next? RAIN and lots of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 May have to rename him Bob Thrill.Lmfao. That's funny.Mods: sorry this is not in banter but I'm traveling and I can't figure out how to take comments from here and move them to banter. At home i just hit multi quote and open the banter thread, but on mobile it doesn't allow me to. Anyone know how to do it on mobile. I also do not use Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Para euro a touch drier but not much. General 2-4" with most of us getting at least 3" including dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm pretty much hugging the euro (shocker). Though to the extent the other models are wet, it helps buttress the Euro solution. I'd be less bullish if the Euro was alone, but juicing up 2 runs in a row makes me feel pretty good. Still tough to go 4" when so much can go wrong. Hard not to hug it. For the last day or so it has been fairly consistent and the other models have moved towards it. Well maybe not the NAM so much. The only issue I have seen is initially it was scouring out the cold too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Zoomed panels up for para euro. Pretty uniform precip distribution. 3" line is east of 95 and everybody west of there for the most part gets at least 3". 4" area kisses dc and runs down 95 to the south. Other 4" pocket is fdk county md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What happens next? RAIN and lots of it. If it pleases you. Most were in full melodramatic negativity 2+ days ago and instead we do have something to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Funny, my wife gave me the finger when I suggested some post Valentines dinner activities at around midnight. Saves money on a proctologist - thrifty. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Thanks for all the love, I over-reacted. A few negatives may give the impression that your participation is taken for granted. That's not the case by any means. Back to snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it pleases you. Most were in full melodramatic negativity 2+ days ago and instead we do have something to follow I'm looking forward to tomorrow. the majority of events that play out the way this should produces a period of heavy snow under some strong bands. Hope that's the case for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it pleases you. Most were in full melodramatic negativity 2+ days ago and instead we do have something to follow Rather see snow. Keep the rain for the spring. I always thought the setup argued for something to track, probably some front end. And as far as the melodrama, am used to it with having followed this board for 20 years or so. After all some people thrive on negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 If it pleases you. Most were in full melodramatic negativity 2+ days ago and instead we do have something to follow I don't think you ever answered when you were asked who said it wasn't going to snow three days ago? At least you eventually moved to the right sfc track with the main system. Try to re-write history as much as you want.. the proof is here that you just make stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting. The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Wes, You are my E.F. Hutton of the board!! And the number one reason I spend too much time reading and learning here.ditto Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 not sure if anyone posted earlier about the fire wx nest being placed over our area, so apologies if this has been discussed, but the character of the simulated reflectivity is quite interesting. The precip takes on a "showery" character by early afternoon - earlier than I was expecting to see. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Interesting. An indication that it's pushing the (relative) dry slot in a bit sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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