psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like 2"+ for the cities and west has pretty solid agreement at this point. That's a good thing imo Unsurprisingly the 0z suite went west so far. We're in fine tuning range now. undortunately there are different ways to get 3". 3" from a sheared out cold system that ends as some freezing rain is way different then 3" that gets immediately wiped out by 1-2" of rain. If we're moving back towards a west more developed system then we probably need to get more snow if we dont want bare ground when it's over. Maybe I'm alone on this but ground truth when the storm ends is probably the biggest determinant for me of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This type of track is one that is a concern for areas west of BR. Looking closely at thermals on the maps, basically the 81 corridor is the dividing line between all frozen or changing to a very cold rain. No sleet at all with the signature. It's either snow, rain or ZR. Looking at the NAM profile for HGR, it's all frozen for the city with a really bad stretch of ZR the final 6 hours to the event ending. I know some on here don't care about at all for this system due to the rain washing away any front end snow, but for others west of Frederick, it's going to be a close call for a nasty end to the system. Cold air wraps back in behind the departing low as well, so things would stay frozen into the night. According to this run areas as far east as northern baltimore county look to get almost .4 QPF as zr. Could get messy for sure. After that it's a soaking rain but temps stay in the mid 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 According to this run areas as far east as northern baltimore county look to get almost .4 QPF as zr. Could get messy for sure. After that it's a soaking rain but temps stay in the mid 30's. Oh goodie. Wouldn't be a winter without at least one ice event up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I heard cmc is very wintry again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Oh goodie. Wouldn't be a winter without at least one ice event up here We would be all snow for that trailing system overnight tuesday into wednesday morning on this run. Shows about 2-3 inches. something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep, the GGEM looks very similar to its last run. Lots of frozen precip out through hr. 78 on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think any ice storm threat is minimal east of BR. I'm still not sure why people are so hung up on the preceding air mass. The sfc setup is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Given the season we've had, I don't care if it stays or is burned off the soil, as long as I get a couple hours of SN that accumulates 2-4 I will be happy. fair enough and that is reasonable expectation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Garbage model but apparently it works well in canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Garbage model but apparently it works well in canadaCanadians enjoy being the mediocre Americans of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The GFS has surface temps above freezing up to Rochester NY at 90 on this run. Its pretty ugly. Edit: NVM: Its cold enough while the precip is still around for some frozen I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEM jackpots my house.. too bad it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think any ice storm threat is minimal east of BR. I'm still not sure why people are so hung up on the preceding air mass. The sfc setup is not good. I agree. You guys will turn to all rain for sure. The northern tier crowd could stick around in some ZR longer before flipping. I'm speaking more for the HGR/Winchester crowd west of BR. Going to be tight call out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We would be all snow for that trailing system overnight tuesday into wednesday morning on this run. Shows about 2-3 inches. something to keep an eye on. I just want to get enough then keep temps down enough to hold snowcover through to the torch coming later next week. Gfs might do it. What's wrong with me that I care about having frozen crystallized water on my lawn so much??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'll want whatever the ggem is smoking. Must be some good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just want to get enough then keep temps down enough to hold snowcover through to the torch coming later next week. Gfs might do it. What's wrong with me that I care about having frozen crystallized water on my lawn so much??? The torch doesn't start until next Saturday. If we survive the potential deluge on tuesday full snow cover will last until the weekend. I hate losing snowpack too, especially when it happens as the result of a 12 hour period of spiking temps and heavy rain then gets cold again right away. The front that comes through on Wednesday is getting better looking each run. Thursday looks pretty darn cold. Maybe we luck out and pick up a few inches with system early wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We would be all snow for that trailing system overnight tuesday into wednesday morning on this run. Shows about 2-3 inches. something to keep an eye on. Good to know, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Any model that has been consistent run to run should not be thrown out given such an uncertain setup. I personally would not throw out the Canadian. It likely won't be until Sunday before the evolution of this is captured consistently well across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Canadians enjoy being the mediocre Americans of the north.Why are you so anti winter my goodness seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Any model that has been consistent run to run should not be thrown out given such an uncertain setup. I personally would not throw out the Canadian. It likely won't be until Sunday before the evolution of this is captured consistently well across the board.And what has the Canadian been showing, exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 UKmet is an apps runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So, how far west will the EURO be this time? Indiana? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Why are you so anti winter my goodness seriously. Downtown DC is not a a place for good snow. Especially with marginal setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GEM is good enough for me. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've come to expect 2-4 (maybe less) from this (DC). We'll see what the models will hold for tomorrow. Still has decent potential on the front end, imo, to be a little larger than what's modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Any model that has been consistent run to run should not be thrown out given such an uncertain setup. I personally would not throw out the Canadian. It likely won't be until Sunday before the evolution of this is captured consistently well across the board. If we wait till Monday afternoon we'll be sure to really nail the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I've come to expect 2-4 (maybe less) from this (DC). We'll see what the models will hold for tomorrow. Still has decent potential on the front end, imo, to be a little larger than what's modeled. Yeah I think we're good for 1-3 or 2-4 unless something changes heavily. I wonder if we'll really saturate as quick as models show but it's a strong enough signal we're in it pretty early to not run too heavily from that. Wouldn't be shocked if start time is delayed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Downtown DC is not a a place for good snow. Especially with marginal setups. Something between a 975mb over Cleveland and a 1010mb over NYC. But only one model is showing a lot of frozen on this one. Everything else is a little frozen followed by 45f and heavy rain followed by 50f and windy. Unlikely this will end with snowcover anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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