Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 And of course we all tend to look at our own areas. I had no idea it showed you guys staying that cold that long. If you could get the low a little more to the east you might end colder longer than what the euro shows. Just looked back and just yesterday at 12z it still had the low offshore and temps into like the low-to-mid 30s at peak around here. Even last night the slp was basically hugging the shore. Today it goes right over this area. I think in the end the transition debate will come down to a few hours and not be too noticeable which ended up right. Partly because there is something of a break between the first part and the rain part. I don't think anyone around here is going to be piling up ice or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 But it did cave in terms of temps. How so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Just looked back and just yesterday at 12z it still had the low offshore and temps into like the low-to-mid 30s at peak around here. Even last night the slp was basically hugging the shore. Today it goes right over this area. I think in the end the transition debate will come down to a few hours and not be too noticeable which ended up right. Partly because there is something of a break between the first part and the rain part. I don't think anyone around here is going to be piling up ice or anything. If the transition occurs during rush hour tomorrow evening, that could have a bit of impact. But it looks like it probably holds off until around 0z and with tomorrow being a holiday anyway, the impact of a few hours of -FZDZ is probably pretty minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The elitists of this forum can continue their contemptuous attitude about 'weenies', but the fact is that it's the Euro that is coming around to the NAM snow totals. The globals are terrible at modeling CAD. There was an LWX guy last night on this forum who basically said the NAM is a better model for this type of situation. Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled Euro-hugging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 But it did cave in terms of temps. NOt really, itt's still way warmer than the NAM, it just thumps precip early in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The euro hasn't wavered for 3 days and 6 runs for the most part. The only change today was to bump precip on the front side. And only added .1-.2 or so. Saying the euro wasn't by far the best on this is flat out wrong. Agreed. Everything is caving to the Euro. It has had basically the same evolution for 3 days. Glad to see it adjust the temps on this run. It was definitely running too warm yesterday IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The elitists of this forum can continue their contemptuous attitude about 'weenies', but the fact is that it's the Euro that is coming around to the NAM snow totals. The globals are terrible at modeling CAD. There was an LWX guy last night on this forum who basically said the NAM is a better model for this type of situation. Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled Euro-hugging. Problem is when the NAM has the storm evolution wrong who the hell cares what it shows with CAD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The elitists of this forum can continue their contemptuous attitude about 'weenies', but the fact is that it's the Euro that is coming around to the NAM snow totals. The globals are terrible at modeling CAD. There was an LWX guy last night on this forum who basically said the NAM is a better model for this type of situation. Anyway, back to your regularly scheduled Euro-hugging. Comments like that are why I post less than I used to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Nice run of the EURO... I think 2-3 is reasonable as many have said... maybe we get lucky and the flip is later than forecast due to nice CAD... I think Ian brought it up, do we get any good SRs in the beginning of the snow late tonight? Or is it just straight 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Unfortunately the twitter mentality of "I'm right and you're wrong" is seeping into this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Agreed. Everything is caving to the Euro. It has had basically the same evolution for 3 days. Glad to see it adjust the temps on this run. It was definitely running too warm yesterday IMO. Yes. For sure. It only had one run that was way east and cold and I believe that was Thursday's night 0z run. It was steadfast for days before that run and then every run that followed that one. The only change is that the thump is more pronounced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NOt really, itt's still way warmer than the NAM, it just thumps precip early in the day. I thought its early runs 24 hours ago showed warmer signals around that time. That's just off pure memory, so I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Comments like that are why I post less than I used to. Can't let that happen Wes. Think of the greater good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Pretty sure no one has a clue which model is correct. Nor should anyone be thumping their chest over any one model. Unless I slept through the event and it's over, which is possible... I did drink a lot of wine last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I think Ian brought it up, do we get any good SRs in the beginning of the snow late tonight? Or is it just straight 10:1? Depends on temps in the snow growth zone and whether they're optimal for dendrites vs. plates or columns. The start of the blizzard had similarly cold surface temps, but temps aloft were generally >-10C, which meant we didn't get dendrites to start. So, our ratios at the beginning of the blizzard were kinda lousy. Didn't get good dendrites until the deform band. GFS sounding for 12z tomorrow has sub -10C temps above 700mb, so we might get some dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Agreed. Everything is caving to the Euro. It has had basically the same evolution for 3 days. Glad to see it adjust the temps on this run. It was definitely running too warm yesterday IMO. It's actually been quite steady on temps unless we're focused on a few hours as warmer air comes in. Below is a snapshot for 6z Tue since that's when most of the area has just risen above freezing per the Euro. A little cooler with time but nothing huge. Arguably 0z temps (http://imgur.com/a/r9Toa) have been even steadier. Again, looking at a few hours difference here with any changes at most. The low warms things up at some point on approach regardless. As noted by Wes and others the main difference here is more liquid early. People forget the globals are getting pretty high resolution these days particularly the Euro. This might become the new need more sampling argument soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 basically, it's a matter of how much of "http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php" holds together. should be cold enough for snow for that batch. not too far away from nowcast time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's actually been quite steady on temps unless we're focused on a few hours as warmer air comes in. Below is a snapshot for 6z Tue since that's when most of the area has just risen above freezing per the Euro. A little cooler with time but nothing huge. Arguably 0z temps (http://imgur.com/a/r9Toa) have been even steadier. Again, looking at a few hours difference here with any changes at most. The low warms things up at some point on approach regardless. As noted by Wes and others the main difference here is more liquid early. People forget the globals are getting pretty high resolution these days particularly the Euro. This might become the new need more sampling argument soon. Amazing....and getting slightly cooler as we get closer which I think is pretty typical of most models in this situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LWX bullish again in the city... DC proper 3-5" per latest ZFP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Depends on temps in the snow growth zone and whether they're optimal for dendrites vs. plates or columns. The start of the blizzard had similarly cold surface temps, but temps aloft were generally >-10C, which meant we didn't get dendrites to start. So, our ratios at the beginning of the blizzard were kinda lousy. Didn't get good dendrites until the deform band. GFS sounding for 12z tomorrow has sub -10C temps above 700mb, so we might get some dendrites. I'm surprised SR is not mentioned in Tim Vasquez's weather map handbook. What's it stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm surprised SR is not mentioned in Tim Vasquez's weather map handbook. What's it stand for? Snow Ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LWX bullish again in the city... DC proper 3-5" per latest ZFP Surprised they haven't expanded the watch east then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 3-5 inches fairly rapidly then glaze over it, some persistent falls west and north of DC, more rapid transition to rain further east, foggy due to saturation of lower levels by late Monday night ... I don't think wind gusts will be too extreme as the storm only deepens rapidly in n.e. NY state and by then front is being stabilized by secondary wave in Midwest which could give a 1-2 inch top up on the soggy mess left over by Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's actually been quite steady on temps unless we're focused on a few hours as warmer air comes in. Below is a snapshot for 6z Tue since that's when most of the area has just risen above freezing per the Euro. A little cooler with time but nothing huge. Arguably 0z temps (http://imgur.com/a/r9Toa) have been even steadier. Again, looking at a few hours difference here with any changes at most. The low warms things up at some point on approach regardless. As noted by Wes and others the main difference here is more liquid early. People forget the globals are getting pretty high resolution these days particularly the Euro. This might become the new need more sampling argument soon. Thanks Ian. That's all it takes is though slightly inching colder temps by a couple miles a run to save this area. I actually like how overall the model blend may turn out nicely across the full suite of guidance available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Amazing....and getting slightly cooler as we get closer which I think is pretty typical of most models in this situation. Modeling is sick these days. I'm not sure everyone realizes how good it is. The Euro is close to making a lot of people unemployed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Depends on temps in the snow growth zone and whether they're optimal for dendrites vs. plates or columns. The start of the blizzard had similarly cold surface temps, but temps aloft were generally >-10C, which meant we didn't get dendrites to start. So, our ratios at the beginning of the blizzard were kinda lousy. Didn't get good dendrites until the deform band. GFS sounding for 12z tomorrow has sub -10C temps above 700mb, so we might get some dendrites. We had all dendrites the other night here with the arrival of the arctic front. Even though the heavier echoes with the line of snow showers were a bit south of here we still picked up an inch. The snow was incredibly light and fluffy. I would bet the liquid content couldn't have been more than .03-.04. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 ZFP has NW Montgomery in in 1" - 3", but Central & Souther in 2" - 4". Umm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 LWX bullish again in the city... DC proper 3-5" per latest ZFP The winter products downgraded our likely amount out here. Map published at 12:51. Be interesting to see if the new euro causes a jump back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Good thing it is a holiday tomorrow and schools will not have to make a decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Modeling is sick these days. I'm not sure everyone realizes how good it is. The Euro is close to making a lot of people unemployed. It is simply amazing that some plastic, metal, and electricity can tell me that there will be a winter storm in 3 days and then it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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