WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 We need a blend of the euro and gfs. The NAM digging the energy more is a move more toward the euro than the gfs. A blend of the two might give us a good thump and then the very real possibility of a dry slot with the proper track. We'd probably all take that I'd imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Lol at the people saying toasty... its maybe 1 degree warmer than 18z at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You guys still chasing warm snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM is still very very wonky, extremely tight temperature gradient, about 35 degrees max at the American Legion Bridge, about 40 degrees max at Nationals Park, hits upper 40s in Aberdeen, MD, still a nice thump for Baltimore and West/SW. Very reminiscent of Dec 26,2012. Never broke freezing here, almost hit 50 in Balt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You guys still chasing warm snow? Any snow is good snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You guys still chasing warm snow? It's a sick hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Somebody ask if we should stay up for the euro....I'll be lucky to make it for the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Very reminiscent of Dec 26,2012. Never broke freezing here, almost hit 50 in Balt. Us along the 81 corridor west and anyone west of the BR have to watch this one closely. Screams ice at some point during the storm. We do CAD well out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You guys still chasing warm snow? I like my snow warm and rain cold. Let a man live his life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam 4 and 12k start sunday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam 4 and 12k start sunday evening Earlier start is better for us I believe if we want accumulating snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS faster with the northern stream and further east with the high. Bad trend we need a piece of the high to stay back like the 12z GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Less of a thump on the 0z GFS. Quite a bit warmer for the rain part of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS faster with the northern stream and further east with the high. Bad trend we need a piece of the high to stay back like the 12z GGEM. The high is pretty much in the same location as the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM meteograms for DCA. I'm suspicious of the quick warm-up Monday. it starts around 20, and while the sfc winds have a southerly component, they're fairly light. A cold start with cloud cover, steady precip, and only weak warm advection is not a good recipe for warming quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm seeing snow coming in by 09z and still snowing at least into Monday 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Less of a thump on the 0z GFS. Quite a bit warmer. Its not "quite a bit warmer". And the thump is 1" less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 But it is a euro cave... SLP is way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Temps look to hold on for the metro areas til 0z tuesday. 2-4" by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Temps look to hold on for the metro areas til 0z tuesday. 2-4" by then. Might be more than that...especially nova. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Surface low pressure goes from western NC to South Central VA to right over DC. Definite shift west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Follow-up wave is not a little bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Follow-up wave is a little bit stronger. Rain. But still something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Do the metros go from snow to rain or is there some ZR in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a bad run if you want to have any snow otg when the storm ends. I know some don't care about that but many do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Do the metros go from snow to rain or is there some ZR in there?not much warms pretty fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looks like 2"+ for the cities and west has pretty solid agreement at this point. That's a good thing imo Unsurprisingly the 0z suite went west so far. We're in fine tuning range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a bad run if you want to have any snow otg when the storm ends. I know some don't care about that but many do. I think we all care but will take whatever is served. Will be happy to even see snow considering the Euro run is up soon. Tough to eat this dry burger when we had prime rib few weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's a bad run if you want to have any snow otg when the storm ends. I know some don't care about that but many do. I'm not sure saying don't care is true. We all care. But it hasn't really been a favored solution for a couple days so expectations should be in check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 This type of track is one that is a concern for areas west of BR. Looking closely at thermals on the maps, basically the 81 corridor is the dividing line between all frozen or changing to a very cold rain. No sleet at all with the signature. It's either snow, rain or ZR. Looking at the NAM profile for HGR, it's all frozen for the city with a really bad stretch of ZR the final 6 hours to the event ending. I know some on here don't care about at all for this system due to the rain washing away any front end snow, but for others west of Frederick, it's going to be a close call for a nasty end to the system. Cold air wraps back in behind the departing low as well, so things would stay frozen into the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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