Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM gives NOVA 24 hours of light to moderate snow and the storm is still in Alabama. Too bad it can't jumpt to Hatteras and give the little demons a few more snow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k is still like 4-5" per tt prior to the flip. Eta: for dc 4k is a pretty big mess..32 or below even for DC for over 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k is a pretty big mess..32 or below even for DC for over 24 hours It went up with precip totals through 0z tues. A nice step if it's right. I like seeing precip totals going up on the 4k at 48hr leads. Gives more room to go backwards at game time. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4km advects a nice swath up I-95 right before the changeover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 24 hours?? starts around 7z and changes to freezing rain by 21z or so. NAM gives NOVA 24 hours of light to moderate snow and the storm is still in Alabama. Too bad it can't jumpt to Hatteras and give the little demons a few more snow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The HiRes keeps us below freezing at least through hr 57. Looks wintry, just not much precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Sarcasm is the only thread holding my sanity together at the moment. Fair enough. NAM has been pretty consistent with not warming the temps up into the 40s Tuesday. we'll see if really is "better" in CAD situations i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The HiRes keeps us below freezing at least through hr 57. Looks wintry, just not much precip. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k is a pretty big mess..32 or below even for DC for over 24 hours DC is barely above freezing at 12z TUES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I don't know about you, but I'd like to have good archived pages for these events... Take this banterous argument about banter to banter, you bantereres! 4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should. I mentioned how you said it a couple pages back.... seems like the models are keying on a heavier swath in South Central VA somewhere... would love that to trend up towards us in the lead-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 4k nam is much better then 12k. My fear is still that the initial thump is to our south. The west to east band ahead of the low is mostly from the waa associated with the northern system running into the cold. That is aimed mostly to our south. We're too deep into the cold. But once the southern system starts to ride north and the flow backs ahead of it that waa lift shuts off. The focus becomes along the boundary the low will ride and that's to our west. There isn't much waa precip east of it because with all the ridging in front the cold is going to rave out without much resistance once the flow backs out of the south. No resistance to lift. So the waa thump goes south. Dry slot with spotty stuff then we warm befire the heavy stuff gets in from the the west. I'm not sold it happens but some runs are hinting at it and I can see why it could happen and maybe should. You should be a professional meteorologist for the NWS who only forecasts bust scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 You should be a professional meteorologist for the NWS who only forecasts bust scenarios. Watch it ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 DC is barely above freezing at 12z TUES 32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Why does that HP eventually move to the SE and off the coast? Seems with the storm and precip moving NE that the HP should retreat to the N or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s. I know... I was just piggybacking on what Zwyts said in his post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s. I disagree. With the cold air leading up to it, and snow already on the ground, rain with temperatures at or a little above freezing could still be icy. Its 10 degrees right now. Its not going to get much warmer tomorrow or even Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Come on guys. New model data comes out and there's a 4-1 ratio of useless vs actual analysis posts. I cleaned it up in case anybody is wondering where 20 non analysis posts went. Mike, focus on clean analysis please. We're inside 48 hours and it's a tricky event. Sarcastic posts that derail have no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Huge differences between the op and 4k in the amount of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Bernie Rayno @AccuRayno 9m9 minutes ago interesting as we move forward. I see 18z gfs is weaker with upstream system which in turns alows front running max to be stronger...... I suspect that EURO will show similar set-up as GFS. I am thinking that EURO track will come further East. expect subtle changes thru sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 As Matt said earlier, globals may not be the best tools for surface temps with this. Looks like we're converging on losing the midlevels around 0z tues across guidance. The nam twins could be too cold at the surface but the globals could be too warm from 0-6z tues. Past history would say colder is favored but high position off the coast makes it a really tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 32 degrees and rain is not an ice storm. It's just cold rain. Ice storms in the urban corridor require entrenched cold in the 20s. not necessarily an ice storm, especially in the heat islands, but when you're in the mid teens on monday morning in the midst of a fresh air mass, it is a different setup than being 32 at 8pm after an afternoon high of 43. I think at some point the complex is just too overwhelming to stave off, but particularly for the favored areas, this idea of a driving rainstorm Monday evening seems less and less likely. Which makes sense. The models don't handle the surface well, and it is hard to scour out fresh cold air even with a retreating high. We've seen it over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Looks like on 00z RGEM, Sfc 32 line would be right on 95 at hr 48, 7:00pm Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Come on guys. New model data comes out and there's a 4-1 ratio of useless vs actual analysis posts. I cleaned it up in case anybody is wondering where 20 non analysis posts went. Mike, focus on clean analysis please. We're inside 48 hours and it's a tricky event. Sarcastic posts that derail have no value. Bob, I respect you, but if you look at the pages back me and ers-wxman were both doing detailed pbp of the NAM... I made one sarcastic posts that half of the board seemed to get... and suddenly got attacked while at least two Winchester guy sarcastically mourned about their 0.1" of precipitation. And also, RGEM looks marginally warmer at the surface than the NAM... would probably mean less ice, especially for the non-favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 RGEM says light snow gets to DC around 10:00 on Monday, moderate snow starts around 3:00, and it flips to ice around 5:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I disagree. With the cold air leading up to it, and snow already on the ground, rain with temperatures at or a little above freezing could still be icy. Its 10 degrees right now. Its not going to get much warmer tomorrow or even Monday. The intensity of the rain matters a lot. Moderate to heavy rain is not going to acrete significantly at or near freezing. Not to mention, water has a very high specific heat, and a much greater thermal conductivity than air. Therefore, rain will quickly bring the surface temp to the temperature of the rain. I don't think the cold ground matters for very long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The intensity of the rain matters a lot. Moderate to heavy rain is not going to acrete significantly at or near freezing. Not to mention, water has a very high specific heat, and a much greater thermal conductivity than air. Therefore, rain will quickly bring the surface temp to the temperature of the rain. I don't think the cold ground matters for very long. But the NAM doesn't look like it has the moderate to heavy precipitation when the prime icing time is... more dryslotty and scattered per simulated radar when surface temps are below freezing, at least in and around the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Why does that HP eventually move to the SE and off the coast? Seems with the storm and precip moving NE that the HP should retreat to the N or NE. Interesting observation and good question. Anyone know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Huge differences between the op and 4k in the amount of precip. Through 60 there's actually more precip on the op than the 4K. Op is 0.75 - 1.00 and the 4K is 0.6. The thing about the 4K is that it never goes above freezing at the surface, moves the 850 line north for about 6 hours and then collapses it right back, and is bringing heavy precip at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 But the NAM doesn't look like it has the moderate to heavy precipitation when the prime icing time is... more dryslotty and scattered per simulated radar when surface temps are below freezing, at least in and around the cities. That would certainly help then. If you like ice that is..... I couldn't care less for it, unless it's over top 6"+ of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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