PWC Split Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Right now pessimism rules the day but here's how Monday will go... Obs thread buzzing with snow working in from sw-ne. Reports of 1 then 2 inches. Everyone's happy. Talk of the flip getting pushed back in time. Radar looks good. Then reports of mixing starting in the southern and eastern regions of the forum. The clock ticks. Then fall line east goes above freezing. Game over. Thread dies down and is exclusively northern and western posters with ice and temp obs while the rest drop out of now casting and move on. I'm in chips fall mode. I've mostly only focused on the front side stuff. 2" might be a good bar or max potential for my yard. At least whatever falls will accumulate. The last event sucked in that dept for many of us. Spoken like a true veteran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 10m winds would explain the surface but don't explain the 850 temps which the NAM and especially the HiRes holds in longer. Actually the wind direction at 850's explain that as well. GFS wind field is coming almost directly from the south whereas the NAM has the wind field coming from the southwest. The more direct southerly flow has better ability to push the 850's north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Actually the wind direction at 850's explain that as well. GFS wind field is coming almost directly from the south whereas the NAM has the wind field coming from the southwest. The more direct southerly flow has better ability to push the 850's north. Yeah, I did notice that one. My question is the HiRes more likely to be correct...or no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah, I did notice that one. My question is the HiRes more likely to be correct...or no.Probably split the difference. Hires seems a little too cold but that's just a guess. I would think guidance converges through tomorrow and we'll have good clarity. I'd like to see more precip through 0z tues start showing up. I'm most likely done with frozen by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 And how wet the thump is. Ummmmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Yeah, I did notice that one. My question is the HiRes more likely to be correct...or no. Who knows. I myself think the NAM and hires NAM are probably too cold at this time considering that the only thing supporting it is the CMC. As Bob said the best bet at this time is to split the difference and wait to see if we get some convergence on the models tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'd love for that to happen. 2" of snow is 2nd biggest this year him getting 2 means 1 for you and .5 for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 him getting 2 means 1 for you and .5 for me... I'm not sure how it's going to play out during the day Monday to be honest. Nothing is set in stone. It has trended lighter over the last 24 hours but no reason to write off the possibility of guidance juicing things up and/or delaying the flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm not sure how it's going to play out during the day Monday to be honest. Nothing is set in stone. It has trended lighter over the last 24 hours but no reason to write off the possibility of guidance juicing things up and/or delaying the flip. It would be nice for that area of heavier precipitation modeled in Central/Southern VA to shift north a bit... what would it take for that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm not sure how it's going to play out during the day Monday to be honest. Nothing is set in stone. It has trended lighter over the last 24 hours but no reason to write off the possibility of guidance juicing things up and/or delaying the flip. For sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Haven't seen much talk of the ensembles. Are they starting to become out of range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Right now pessimism rules the day but here's how Monday will go... Obs thread buzzing with snow working in from sw-ne. Reports of 1 then 2 inches. Everyone's happy. Talk of the flip getting pushed back in time. Radar looks good. Then reports of mixing starting in the southern and eastern regions of the forum. The clock ticks. Then fall line east goes above freezing. Game over. Thread dies down and is exclusively northern and western posters with ice and temp obs while the rest drop out of now casting and move on. I'm in chips fall mode. I've mostly only focused on the front side stuff. 2" might be a good bar or max potential for my yard. At least whatever falls will accumulate. The last event sucked in that dept for many of us. Timing the changeover can be tough. I could definitely see a good snowfall before the change. This airmass is no joke. It won't erode immediately. I sort of hope for no snow myself, since seeing it washed away by rain at 50 degrees is going to hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What is the O/U on the time it transitions from snow to non-snow? Is there a consensus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Haven't seen much talk of the ensembles. Are they starting to become out of range? Not much value if any. Definitely in op and meso range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Not much value if any. Definitely in op and meso range now. Even the ensembles still look pretty messy to me. Several show a few inches and several completely shaft many of us. We're running out of time for either boom or bust scenarios to come to any consensus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even the ensembles still look pretty messy to me. Several show a few inches and several completely shaft many of us. We're running out of time for either boom or bust scenarios to come to any consensus! Probably more a factor of lower resolution than spread. Ops are converging now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ice map from NDFD shows some pretty significant accumulations, especially west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm not sure how it's going to play out during the day Monday to be honest. Nothing is set in stone. It has trended lighter over the last 24 hours but no reason to write off the possibility of guidance juicing things up and/or delaying the flip. The nature of the flip (at least as of now) is so dramatic that I think we'll get the timing down pretty well. I think the big wildcards are how long surface temps stay at 32 or less (even 33-34 could be bad with the cold ground) and how much precip falls before the flip. Models aren't very skilled with the former and have more skill with the latter but is still more uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Timing the changeover can be tough. I could definitely see a good snowfall before the change. This airmass is no joke. It won't erode immediately. I sort of hope for no snow myself, since seeing it washed away by rain at 50 degrees is going to hurt. Worst case is we never get good lift/precip going before the critical midlevel bad stuff is racing towards us at light speed. Not saying I'm leaning that way but it's possible. I do think there will be an ok period of snow for all of us with typical areas being favored of course. It's not much more than a subtle shift to move the current bullseye in central VA with early precip into our area. One thing working again us is proximity to the cold hp early on. Hopefully we get nam'd in a few minutes just to get some good vibes going. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inverted_Trough Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 last Tuesday we knew the event could (and did) bust with much lower snow totals. This event, though, could easily bust with higher snow totals. If the precip gets here earlier, or the cold hangs on for a couple hours longer, we could easily get 3-6" of snow. I think 1-3" is a good forecast, but the chances of busting and having higher totals is greater than the other way around. We had 5-10" of snow on Feb 22 2015 with strong southwesterly winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Haven't seen much talk of the ensembles. Are they starting to become out of range? It's probably best to use the SREF and RGEM ensembles now. Here's the 12z RGEM ensemble for DC. The average snowfall took a big step back from 00z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 last Tuesday we knew the event could (and did) bust with much lower snow totals. This event, though, could easily bust with higher snow totals. If the precip gets here earlier, or the cold hangs on for a couple hours longer, we could easily get 3-6" of snow. I think 1-3" is a good forecast, but the chances of busting and having higher totals is greater than the other way around. We had 5-10" of snow on Feb 22 2015 with strong southwesterly winds. We can do better with with -SN during the day than we do with 90% of events. Which makes this an interesting one. SnowTV will stick. WHich is good. Because rates and consistency could kind of suck on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 The nature of the flip (at least as of now) is so dramatic that I think we'll get the timing down pretty well. I think the big wildcards are how long surface temps stay at 32 or less (even 33-34 could be bad with the cold ground) and how much precip falls before the flip. Models aren't very skilled with the former and have more skill with the latter but is still more uncertain. Typical short range "little things mean a lot" with changeover events. I like the mental exercise as much as you do. Ground out this way is rock hard frozen already and that won't change until after we lose the surface late Monday/early Tuesday. I'm not that interested in ice with this one. It will be very temporary. I just hope to add as much as possible to seasonal snow totals. It's a numbers game and not snowpack days/pretty powder from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Ice map from NDFD shows some pretty significant accumulations, especially west. You can see the different nws offices are on different pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I can't wait to see how this turns out. My gut tells me it will blow yet somehow I feel like it will surprise to the upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I can't wait to see how this turns out. My gut tells me it will blow yet somehow I feel like it will surprise to the upside. What?? 2 inches is what My benchmark. Anything more is gravy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What?? 2 inches is what My benchmark. Anything more is gravy Mine too is 2. But somehow I think we can pull 3 if it starts early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Mine too is 2. But somehow I think we can pull 3 if it starts early. Or flips later... Best rates will likely be close to the flip. Which kinda sucks in some ways but snow is a gift in the MA no matter how it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 00z NAM through hr 21...nice shield of light snow with high to the north and cad all the way into the SE U.S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 NAM hr 27...snow everywhere...good CAD. Snow moves in Sunday eve vs Mon AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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