CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There are places in the northeast and New England that will be in the mid teens below zero tonight and then rain on tuesday. Not really that uncommon when we have zero in the blocking dept. AO has been pretty negative, and this brief cold shot is partly a function of that (attack of the daughter of Polar Vortex) but with no blocking, the Arctic air zips in then out like a bat outa hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There are certainly factors working in favor of this and that's likely the reason for the watch. For one...road temps will be very cold...well below freezing. Snow will fall which will cool them further and lay down some icy conditions. We warm aloft. The low is not strong so the I don't think the warming will be quick especially west of the cities. I-81 may never get above freezing. ZR could be troublesome for these areas. Even RA with mid 30s could still be icy since the ground is so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 lol even the trailing wave falls apart. Excellent run. Time to stop tracking this. A minor accumulation followed by a warm deluge. Time to look towards the pattern following the meh pattern that follows this pos. It looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There are certainly factors working in favor of this and that's likely the reason for the watch. For one...road temps will be very cold...well below freezing. Snow will fall which will cool them further and lay down some icy conditions. We warm aloft. The low is not strong so the I don't think the warming will be quick especially west of the cities. I-81 may never get above freezing. ZR could be troublesome for these areas. Even RA with mid 30s could still be icy since the ground is so warm. Ill defer to you, but I think airmasses before and after storms are overblown to a degree...The extreme cold this weekend is a bit of a kicker and I agree its more in play for N/W but it looks like temps warm pretty quick from 7AM-7PM Mon...even with cloud cover and maybe some snow falling, (but lets be real we're talking .1-.3 of snow at best) infared heating may warm roads some. We'll see, Im starting to think this is kind of minor even for some areas under watches right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ill defer to you, but I think airmasses before and after storms are overblown to a degree...The extreme cold this weekend is a bit of a kicker and I agree its more in play for N/W but it looks like temps warm pretty quick from 7AM-7PM Mon...even with cloud cover and maybe some snow falling, (but lets be real we're talking .1-.3 of snow at best) infared heating may warm roads some. We'll see, Im starting to think this is kind of minor even for some areas under watches right now. There's not likely to warming during that first period you mentioned. The warming most likely will occur rapidly during when the heavier precip batch arrives in the evening. If anything I think models may be too warm during Monday daytime hours. But what is really the difference if someone goes from 22 to 44 in 8 hours or 31 to 44 in 8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There's not likely to warming during that first period you mentioned. The warming most likely will occur rapidly during when the heavier precip batch arrives in the evening. If anything I think models may be too warm during Monday daytime hours. But what is really the difference if someone goes from 22 to 44 in 8 hours or 31 to 44 in 8 hours. Well the GFS has Baltimore 23F at 7AM and 30 at 1pm...30 at 1PM isnt all that impressive with some infared heating thru the clouds with mainly light precip, I think the roads will respond fairly quickly to that and be close to that temperature...just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you look closely there really isn't that great of a difference between the NAM and the GFS in the big features. The NAM is wetter with the early stuff but it is one of its biases. The difference is the NAM holds the cold longer. At 850 it's just a little slower to lose the freezing temps but at the surface it's much slower. The HiRes is even slower to do it. Would the NAM have better handle on temps like that? Especially the HiRes? I was thinking that I had read that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wxrisk is quite aggressive west of 95...new map on FB. I can't attach it here...out of state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If you look closely there really isn't that great of a difference between the NAM and the GFS in the big features. The NAM is wetter with the early stuff but it is one of its biases. The difference is the NAM holds the cold longer. At 850 it's just a little slower to lose the freezing temps but at the surface it's much slower. The HiRes is even slower to do it. Would the NAM have better handle on temps like that? Especially the HiRes? I was thinking that I had read that before. All you need to do is compare the 10M winds between the GFS and NAM to understand why the NAM holds the cold in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 If the cold air retreats as fast as the GFS is predicting, I'll be very, very surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wxrisk is quite aggressive west of 95...new map on FB. I can't attach it here...out of state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My map...doesnt include any ice forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 wxrisk is quite aggressive west of 95...new map on FB. I can't attach it here...out of state. There it is. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My map...doesnt include any ice forecast Just curious, how do you make that? Paint? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There are certainly factors working in favor of this and that's likely the reason for the watch. For one...road temps will be very cold...well below freezing. Snow will fall which will cool them further and lay down some icy conditions. We warm aloft. The low is not strong so the I don't think the warming will be quick especially west of the cities. I-81 may never get above freezing. ZR could be troublesome for these areas. Even RA with mid 30s could still be icy since the ground is so warm. Red-taggers ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 That is very promising! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 And I thought Berk was being bullish with 3 to 5 north and west but after seeing DT"s, now that is bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 All you need to do is compare the 10M winds between the GFS and NAM to understand why the NAM holds the cold in. 10m winds would explain the surface but don't explain the 850 temps which the NAM and especially the HiRes holds in longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 And I thought Berk was being bullish with 3 to 5 north and west but after seeing DT"s, now that is bullish. Keep in mind that is his 'First Guess' map. No doubt he will adjust tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm still waiting for my VDII randevu to be added! No this is not the same synoptically, but results could be similar around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 People are missing an area of higher totals in WV. And DTs maps are always a visual mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Keep in mind that is his 'First Guess' map. No doubt he will adjust tomorrow. I dont think the map is that crazy. 4-8 is a pretty wide range. I dont see any chance of my area getting 8. But I wouldnt be shocked with 4 or 5 inches on the front end. It all depends where that HP ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I dont think the map is that crazy. 4-8 is a pretty wide range. I dont see any chance of my area getting 8. But I wouldnt be shocked with 4 or 5 inches on the front end. It all depends where that HP ends up. And how wet the thump is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Was surprised to see LWX and the WSW w/ 5" out here... again. After last week's fiasco, I'm surprised to see them so bullish so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Was surprised to see LWX and the WSW w/ 5" out here... again. After last week's fiasco, I'm surprised to see them so bullish so far out. agreed, especially farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Keep in mind that is his 'First Guess' map. No doubt he will adjust tomorrow. As will everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Right now pessimism rules the day but here's how Monday will go... Obs thread buzzing with snow working in from sw-ne. Reports of 1 then 2 inches. Everyone's happy. Talk of the flip getting pushed back in time. Radar looks good. Then reports of mixing starting in the southern and eastern regions of the forum. The clock ticks. Then fall line east goes above freezing. Game over. Thread dies down and is exclusively northern and western posters with ice and temp obs while the rest drop out of now casting and move on. I'm in chips fall mode. I've mostly only focused on the front side stuff. 2" might be a good bar or max potential for my yard. At least whatever falls will accumulate. The last event sucked in that dept for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Right now pessimism rules the day but here's how Monday will go... Obs thread buzzing with snow working in from sw-ne. Reports of 1 then 2 inches. Everyone's happy. Talk of the flip getting pushed back in time. Radar looks good. Then reports of mixing starting in the southern and eastern regions of the forum. The clock ticks. Then fall line east goes above freezing. Game over. Thread dies down and is exclusively northern and western posters with ice and temp obs while the rest drop out of now casting and move on. I'm in chips fall mode. I've mostly only focused on the front side stuff. 2" might be a good bar or max potential for my yard. At least whatever falls will accumulate. The last event sucked in that dept for many of us. I'd love for that to happen. 2" of snow is 2nd biggest this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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