Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Watches can become advisories but if we were talking 2-4 area wide with most west that's pretty much there for the watch. Can't hurt to put it up at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Loudoun and Frederick County get another 3" with a backside band. Its pretty lolworthy What the...that stormvista map shows big differences compared to ncep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensembles is anything but inspiring. 2 inch snowfall mean now sits in the far north and west suburbs with 95 being straddled by the 1 1/2 inch mean. Looking at individual members just further supports the general idea of the means. Did notice that the means now show a weak low that tracks over or just west of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What the...that stormvista map shows big differences compared to ncep! I'm using weatherbell. Might be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Looking at the Euro ensembles is anything but inspiring. 2 inch snowfall mean now sits in the far north and west suburbs with 95 being straddled by the 1 1/2 inch mean. Looking at individual members just further supports the general idea of the means. Did notice that the means now show a weak low that tracks over or just west of DC. Thanks. What do they say about ice? There has been an uptick today in the amout of freezing rain the GFS, GGEM, and their ensembles show for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Haven't had a chance to check the models much for the trailing vort today, anything good with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What the...that stormvista map shows big differences compared to ncep! Looks pretty similar to that other map above, to me. Notice it's showing the 2-m temperatures (not 850)...just like the other one showed...and the 0C/32F line is in the same place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The storm is just beginning to come into the RGEM's range. Here's the 18z RGEM at 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Thanks. What do they say about ice? There has been an uptick today in the amout of freezing rain the GFS, GGEM, and their ensembles show for DC. Hard to tell using the means. If I were to hazard a guess you wouldn't be talking anything serious until you hit Fredrick county or even west of there. Again more a guess then anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm using weatherbell. Might be different. wxbell precip type map looks like mostly frozen with some rain on the back side. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It looks as if the NWS is leaning heavily on the NAM. Curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 So...Why is the NAM such a bad model (and why doesn't somebody fix it? Lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Folks need to relax - there is a sampling network in nw Georgia that the system hasn't reached yet - just not sampled enough to draw hard conclusions... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Folks need to relax - there is a sampling network in nw Georgia that the system hasn't reached yet - just not sampled enough to draw hard conclusions... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk good point. I heard the FIM already has those samples in. It being experimental and all. Should probably use that as the basis for my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Folks need to relax - there is a sampling network in nw Georgia that the system hasn't reached yet - just not sampled enough to draw hard conclusions... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Well played....classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Justin Berk is somewhat bullish on this system. 3-5 north and west of the cities and 1 -3 down the 95 corridor. http://news.justinweather.com/2016/02/13/winter-storm-watch-mon-feb-15-first-call-for-snowfall/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well played....classic Took me a moment to realize he was funnin on dtk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Justin Berk is somewhat bullish on this system. 3-5 north and west of the cities and 1 -3 down the 95 corridor. http://news.justinweather.com/2016/02/13/winter-storm-watch-mon-feb-15-first-call-for-snowfall/ Is Berk being 'somewhat' bullish anything new?...anyway, theres no reason to buy the NAM at this point, its not even close to the the other models, specifically with the WAA precip, it develops some weird wonky low near Norfolk before the main storm?? weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Justin Berk is somewhat bullish on this system. 3-5 north and west of the cities and 1 -3 down the 95 corridor. http://news.justinweather.com/2016/02/13/winter-storm-watch-mon-feb-15-first-call-for-snowfall/ Berk is always bullish, but the 1-3 part isn't crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 LWX isn't hugging the NAM, just read the discussion. They say change to rain east of the BR with patchy icy zones. Everyone's all about the cold air though. The weaker low idea perhaps opens the door for some staying power but otherwise.. think I've already stated my thoughts on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sorry what does BR stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Sorry what does BR stand for? Blue Ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 gfs is weak sauce. limited precipitation comes in before the upper level torch. maybe 1-3" for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 No GFS happy hour today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 There are places in the northeast and New England that will be in the mid teens below zero tonight and then rain on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS isnt any better, thats for sure, probably a touch worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 By 54 hour 0C 850 past cities with only about .1-.2 fallen, pockets of .25-3 to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Weatherbell has 2" for Dc and Balt...and then pretty much nothing to then rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Even only 3" for Westminster, Frederick, Hagerstown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 DC in the 50s by 10AM Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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