NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would still gladly take 2" of snow any time, all models snow snow at least. UKMET is probably the worst out of the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't find a lot to be optimistic about right now. The srefs continue to look wetter, especially west of the BR, but also push the cold air out faster. I may have to eat crow if the track of this low ends up as shown. Hope it's grilled and lightly sautéed. I would go deep fried. You can eat anything when its coated in saturated fat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Can't find a lot to be optimistic about right now. The srefs continue to look wetter, especially west of the BR, but also push the cold air out faster. I may have to eat crow if the track of this low ends up as shown. Hope it's grilled and lightly sautéed. The concerning thing to me is most of the models are pretty dry out here. We will get a thump of some snow. But it might end up looking like last nights half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The concerning thing to me is most of the models are pretty dry out here. We will get a thump of some snow. But it might end up looking like last nights half inch. Dry? Here? Surely you jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I would go deep fried. You can eat anything when its coated in saturated fat Mmm, sounds good. I could dip it in chocolate too. Probably could eat two servings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 The concerning thing to me is most of the models are pretty dry out here. We will get a thump of some snow. But it might end up looking like last nights half inch. Will know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 looks like the one consistent thing on the models for my area is that whatever falls before about 4pm monday is snow. i will just be sure to get my jebwalk in before 4pm and let mother nature take care of the snow removal. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I believe this is as far east as the euro has shown for this system for the coc. That is huge! Why is everyone ignoring that? I think it's because it looks like model convergence. If all of the models shifted east, then it could signal the start of an east trend. But the Euro, which was on the western edge of guidance, has shifted east while the GGEM, which was on the eastern edge of guidance, has shifted west. I think most people expected something like that to happen. The problem is that the models will probably converge to a solution that isn't great for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps. This is something I think bears watching. There is still snow cover on the ground in many areas. That's not going to melt before this event, at least appreciably. Even when the precip goes to liquid there's still going to be a very shallow layer at the surface which is frozen. Pavement temps in some areas are in the upper 20s as well. Could be a recipe for bad conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Arctic air masses tend to not cooperate...IE...shallow cold air can be tough to scour especially the Shenandoah Valley. However...in order to have a prolonged episode of frozen precip it's more favorable to have an in-situ CAD where the high is north and wedging the cad into our area which prolongs the episode. With this being a retreating high the WAA will win over. Timing can still be tricky well N and W with very shallow freezing temps. Good explanation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThreeRedheads Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watch, Wind Chill Advisory Issued: 3:06 PM EST Feb. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-FREDERICK VA-CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- 306 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this eveningto 9 am EST Sunday...... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night throughTuesday morning...The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington hasissued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sundaynight through Tuesday morning.* Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph throughthis evening. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 mph tonight. WindsSunday night through Tuesday morning southeast around 5 to 10mph.* Temperatures... falling into the single digits tonight intoSunday morning... in the teens Sunday night rising into theupper 20s to lower 30s Monday into Tuesday.* Wind chills... 10 to 20 degrees below zero.* Precipitation type... snow... sleet and freezing rain.* Accumulation... potential for around 5 inches of snow and sleet.Potential for around a quarter inch of ice from freezing rain.* Timing... lowest wind chills are expected late tonight throughearly Sunday morning. Snow will begin late Sunday night. Snowwill continue through Monday before changing to sleet andfreezing rain Monday night. Precipitation will end Tuesdayafternoon.* Impacts... the dangerously low wind chills will lead to frostbite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Snow and icewill cause slippery roads and travel will be difficult.Precautionary/preparedness actions...A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong windswill combine to generate low wind chills. This will result infrost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken.If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat andgloves.A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significantsnow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel.Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter storm watches posted n/w of the cities and down in virginia. Up to 5 inches w ice. Bold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter storm watches posted n/w of the cities and down in virginia. Up to 5 inches w ice. Bold. Seems pretty bullish. Wouldn't be surprised to see less than half of that actually verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOROF NORTHERN VIRGINIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. What? That in the hazardous weather outlook. I guess anywhere north of EZF isn't in the I-95 corridor northern virginia lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm only a block out of Fairfax so I'm gonna pretend that applies for me. In reality, there is no way that's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Winter Storm Watch, Wind Chill Advisory Issued: 3:06 PM EST Feb. 13, 2016 – National Weather Service WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY- CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-FREDERICK VA- CLARKE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-STAFFORD- SPOTSYLVANIA-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN LOUDOUN- EASTERN LOUDOUN-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- 306 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016 ... Wind Chill Advisory remains in effect from 6 PM this eveningto 9 am EST Sunday... ... Winter Storm Watch in effect from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Storm Watch... which is in effect from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning. * Winds... northwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph through this evening. Winds decreasing to 10 to 15 mph tonight. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday morning southeast around 5 to 10 mph. * Temperatures... falling into the single digits tonight into Sunday morning... in the teens Sunday night rising into the upper 20s to lower 30s Monday into Tuesday. * Wind chills... 10 to 20 degrees below zero. * Precipitation type... snow... sleet and freezing rain. * Accumulation... potential for around 5 inches of snow and sleet. Potential for around a quarter inch of ice from freezing rain. * Timing... lowest wind chills are expected late tonight through early Sunday morning. Snow will begin late Sunday night. Snow will continue through Monday before changing to sleet and freezing rain Monday night. Precipitation will end Tuesday afternoon. * Impacts... the dangerously low wind chills will lead to frost bite and hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Snow and ice will cause slippery roads and travel will be difficult. Precautionary/preparedness actions... A Wind Chill Advisory means that very cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chills. This will result in frost bite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. If you must venture outdoors... make sure you wear a hat and gloves. A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow... sleet... or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm only a block out of Fairfax so I'm gonna pretend that applies for me. In reality, there is no way that's happening. I'm bringing this to the LWX complaint/praise thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Feel like a loser watching the NAM roll in. Looks really good for people like wxdude, harrisonburg, CHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Feel like a loser watching the NAM roll in. Looks really good for people like wxdude, harrisonburg, CHO. Even over towards RIC, EZF it's solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I think psuhoffman warned us of this, where the WAA snows could go to the south of us. He mentioned it had happened last year as well. I think thats what the models may be indicating. The newest NAM has a stretch of 6-10" east to west from CHO to just south of EZF. Looks like we get 3-6" too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM keeps sfc temps at or below freezing the entire event, even around the cities. Looks like a 3-6" thump, then a dryslot, then some sort of cold/freezing rain at 32 or 31. Look pretty damn icy for the N/W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just wish the NAM wasn't such a POS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 With the NAM, even though the wind direction is favorable for scouring out the cold air, the speeds are quite light, so good sfc warm air advection can't really happen. Having steady precip fall into an air mass that starts out the day super cold combined with weak low-level southeast flow, is a recipe for delaying a warm up here. NAM keeps sfc temps at or below freezing the entire event, even around the cities. Looks like a 3-6" thump, then a dryslot, then some sort of cold/freezing rain at 32 or 31. Look pretty damn icy for the N/W burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I just wish the NAM wasn't such a POS. Me too, my friend, me too. I think somebody said it does better with CAD. I'm gonna hug it Whatever the case, it never gets temperatures above freezing, even in the cities. Looks like significant ice N/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joshfsu123 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep, 18z NAM held the ground... 3-6 for the area... if only it could be right. Looks like it is bringing slightly more (heavier) precip into the area than the global models, before we lose the cold... that's the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yep, 18z NAM held the ground... 3-6 for the area... if only it could be right. Looks like it is bringing slightly more (heavier) precip into the area than the global models, before we lose the cold... that's the big difference. We don't really "lose the cold" at the surface. Looks like the upper levels warm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Loudoun and Frederick County get another 3" with a backside band. Its pretty lolworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM keeps sfc temps at or below freezing the entire event, even around the cities. Looks like a 3-6" thump, then a dryslot, then some sort of cold/freezing rain at 32 or 31. Look pretty damn icy for the N/W burbs. Still plenty of pure liquid behind it, but I like what we've been seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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