Kevin Reilly Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Comes down to a SE wind fetch off the gulf stream it will always warm us, all those times we hold the cold and stay below freezing some form of unexpected weak low pressure pops off the coast and keeps the winds ENE or NE. And you know what models have a hard time showing this the good all delayed warming event especially when primary runs to se Ohio...wish I knew how to upload my constructed map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Over performing in KY with thundersnow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I'm looking forward to my PDIII flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 no surprise.. GFS and NAM are worlds apart again... 24 hours before event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12Z NAM hangs on to the cold a little longer Monday night.....still mainly frozen for most of SE PA thru Tuesday morning.What are you looking at, Rslph. There is zero frozen precip Tues morning. 850s above freezing in all SEPA by 7pm Monday night on 12z namThere is a difference between "frozen" and freezing precip (freezing rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 What are you looking at, Rslph. There is zero frozen precip Tues morning. 850s above freezing in all SEPA by 7pm Monday night on 12z nam There is a difference between "frozen" and freezing precip (freezing rain). Semantics. Maybe I should have noted "early" morning hours.....1am skew t still has fzra in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Very surprised to see flurries already with the no real returns overhead and the air mass we've had the fast few days. Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM....probably not a huge deal but anyone else else notice the slight E-ENE flow from around 9 hrs - 18 hrs on the NAM this run as opposed to S or even SE? Keeps the LL cold locked in just a little longer tonight in SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM....probably not a huge deal but anyone else else notice the slight E-ENE flow from around 9 hrs - 18 hrs on the NAM this run as opposed to S or even SE? Keeps the LL cold locked in just a little longer tonight in SE PA. and even at 1 am for example it's only 33-34 degrees, on a cold/snowy ground that should make for some icy glaze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 And then mid 40's by 3 AM. Gradient much!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 12Z NAM....probably not a huge deal but anyone else else notice the slight E-ENE flow from around 9 hrs - 18 hrs on the NAM this run as opposed to S or even SE? Keeps the LL cold locked in just a little longer tonight in SE PA. Sounding has me over freezing at the surface just after 7PM tonight so probably the same or sooner for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Sounding has me over freezing at the surface just after 7PM tonight so probably the same or sooner for you. Agreed, likely just model noise. Thinking an inch or two of snow/grapuel with brief sleet and/or freezing rain by 6pm-ish here and plain rain by 9pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Agreed, likely just model noise. Thinking an inch or two of snow/grapuel with brief sleet and/or freezing rain by 6pm-ish here and plain rain by 9pm. sounds reasonable to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 sounds reasonable to me That said, as long as heavier precip holds off the true surface (meaning actual ground temps) could stay below freezing a bit longer than model surface temps indicate..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 That said, as long as heavier precip holds off the true surface (meaning actual ground temps) could stay below freezing a bit longer than model surface temps indicate..... And its after dark if that makes a difference. I have to drive from Blue Bell to Warminster around 7:30pm so definitely concerned about my travels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CMC with .5" ice accrual far nw burbes yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 CMC with .5" ice accrual far nw burbes yikes Is the map behind a pay wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 Is the map behind a pay wall? Some of the maps are posted in NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 15, 2016 Share Posted February 15, 2016 http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=ZR&hi=000&hf=036&mode=latest〈=en&map=na Some of the maps are posted in NYC forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 could be interesting afternoon. Mt Holly - THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TOHEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL BRING SOMEVERY STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THESTRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THOSE WINDS, SO BE PREPAREDFOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. ARUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 could be interesting afternoon. Mt Holly - THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BRING A ROUND OF MODERATE TOHEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG FORCING WILL BRING SOMEVERY STRONG WINDS INTO THE REGION JUST OFF THE SURFACE. THESTRONGER STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THOSE WINDS, SO BE PREPAREDFOR SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. ARUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO STILL POSSIBLE. This is moving due north, with an eastward drift, so yeah.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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