anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Yeah Gfs is one inch of snow then heavy rain Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS inland runner super warm disasta for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It seems like the 18z gfs always has a wacky solution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It seems like the 18z gfs always has a wacky solution! RIght this time it dumps prohibition on happy hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You know the outcome of the 18z GFS is bad when there is no mention of it in the NYC forum lol. So NAM vs the field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 This will really be like the storms in the 70's and 80's....... before this generation - we almost never saw a snow over 10" - heck I never saw a storm over 6" until I was 14 years old (Jan '78) in NE Philly. I remember listening to Elliott Abrams with accuweather on KYW saying....for every hour the change to rain is delayed add another inch of snow....I think this one will be like that - that being said I think an inch in Philly to maybe 2 or 3" in the NW burbs and then a quick transition to rain with temps getting into the low 40's here in the NW burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Well we are with a few days of this one starting so thought we should start the thread. In looking at this storm it really has the look of the type of storms I used to see when I was a kid in the 1970's on the back end of major arctic air masses. A storm that comes up the coast and hugs or moves just inland. With a major thump of snow on the front end and snow to rain from SE to NW but a real battle ground the further N and W one travels. Should be interesting to track! Didn't we have some storms like this in January 1994? Practically every storm that winter was a battle ground across our area. I remember the nastiest 13~15" storm around mid Jan. 94'. About 8-9" of snow, heavy freezing rain, 5" of snow on top of that, followed by the coldest air mass of my lifetime. (or darn close....) It was 10F the morning after the storm, and I do not believe the temp rose during the day, because when I got home around 7PM it was -6F already....bottomed out around -18F the next morning. All of that ice was stuck on the road for a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 You know the outcome of the 18z GFS is bad when there is no mention of it in the NYC forum lol. So NAM vs the field? seems like craziness how the models are painting completely different pictures (for like a week now) and still no agreements ....2 days beforehand. feels like the 70's in terms of not knowing whats about to happen. with the amount of cold that's going to be in place...I can't imagine a GFS / Euro scenario verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 14, 2016 Author Share Posted February 14, 2016 Hi Darth Yes but a much different situation....lots of snow/ice on the ground and the cold was not moving away...here in Chester County that was the only time in January 1994 where the temp failed to get above zero in the entire database from 1894 to Present. Didn't we have some storms like this in January 1994? Practically every storm that winter was a battle ground across our area. I remember the nastiest 13~15" storm around mid Jan. 94'. About 8-9" of snow, heavy freezing rain, 5" of snow on top of that, followed by the coldest air mass of my lifetime. (or darn close....) It was 10F the morning after the storm, and I do not believe the temp rose during the day, because when I got home around 7PM it was -6F already....bottomed out around -18F the next morning. All of that ice was stuck on the road for a week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 with the amount of cold that's going to be in place...I can't imagine a GFS / Euro scenario verifying. Growing up in the Lehigh Valley I've seen more than one occasion where it was single digits in the morning and raining and pushing 40 by afternoon, so I wouldn't outright dismiss the Euro/GFS scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Didn't we have some storms like this in January 1994? Practically every storm that winter was a battle ground across our area. I remember the nastiest 13~15" storm around mid Jan. 94'. About 8-9" of snow, heavy freezing rain, 5" of snow on top of that, followed by the coldest air mass of my lifetime. (or darn close....) It was 10F the morning after the storm, and I do not believe the temp rose during the day, because when I got home around 7PM it was -6F already....bottomed out around -18F the next morning. All of that ice was stuck on the road for a week! Ah, yes. We called that "Martin Luther King, Jr. Week" in high school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Got "stranded" in poconos for a week it hit -24... Kept in touch with the office via a pay phone in the resort lodge (the glory days before Internet and cell phones)! Absolutely fantastic time/great memories with family in a log cabin on a frozen lake with knee deep snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Well stick a fork in her.. MayBE that clipper Wednesday night can bring us 1-3 Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Goofus the eastern outlier two days ago is now furthest west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 This will really be like the storms in the 70's and 80's....... before this generation - we almost never saw a snow over 10" - heck I never saw a storm over 6" until I was 14 years old (Jan '78) in NE Philly. I remember listening to Elliott Abrams with accuweather on KYW saying....for every hour the change to rain is delayed add another inch of snow....I think this one will be like that - that being said I think an inch in Philly to maybe 2 or 3" in the NW burbs and then a quick transition to rain with temps getting into the low 40's here in the NW burbs I spent the first 50 years of my life in Delaware County..... pining for the excesses of the fabled "Northern and Western Suburbs" while watching the slush wash away in torrents.... only to move to the southern extremes of the Lehigh valley five years ago to watch Upper Darby become Ground zero for snow multiple times....karma I spose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I spent the first 50 years of my life in Delaware County..... pining for the excesses of the fabled "Northern and Western Suburbs" while watching the slush wash away in torrents.... only to move to the southern extremes of the Lehigh valley five years ago to watch Upper Darby become Ground zero for snow multiple times....karma I spose...Mr Cantore?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I spent the first 50 years of my life in Delaware County..... pining for the excesses of the fabled "Northern and Western Suburbs" while watching the slush wash away in torrents.... only to move to the southern extremes of the Lehigh valley five years ago to watch Upper Darby become Ground zero for snow multiple times....karma I spose... Even worse warm season severe also now concentrates down there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I spent the first 50 years of my life in Delaware County..... pining for the excesses of the fabled "Northern and Western Suburbs" while watching the slush wash away in torrents.... only to move to the southern extremes of the Lehigh valley five years ago to watch Upper Darby become Ground zero for snow multiple times....karma I spose... Yes Delaware County is many times the battle ground espeacially at the chester county delco line....case in point Media right now has a trace of snow on the Ground western Chads Ford and right before Kennet Square lucky ones had snow blowing across Baltimore Pike and 3-4" of snow still with 3 foot snow drifts in the fields they must have scored pretty good there Medenhall Pa to Longwood Gardens during the inverted trough event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 Even worse warm season severe also now concentrates down there Correct especially Delco to New Castle County Delaware home of the right turn severe thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 with ocean temps in the low to mid 30's...along with this enormous cold in place. I feel there'll certainly be a cooling trend with 12z and 0z.runs. A more SE track of the low as well. There's just no way these temps are just gonna flop upwards like nothing...like models are currently showing. I'm even doubting how much of that SSE flow will even verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 with ocean temps in the low to mid 30's...along with this enormous cold in place. I feel there'll certainly be a cooling trend with 12z and 0z.runs. A more SE track of the low as well. There's just no way these temps are just gonna flop upwards like nothing...like models are currently showing. I'm even doubting how much of that SSE flow will even verify. I've seen storms start in the morning (8am) with temps around 6F then be pushing low 40s by 2PM....in Feb about 12 years ago (among other times). A gale SE wind will hurt ya every time. It is very certainly possible even if it doesn't seem like it. GFS has another decent Day 10 setup....should we start tracking it? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've seen storms start in the morning (8am) with temps around 6F then be pushing low 40s by 2PM....in Feb about 12 years ago (among other times). A gale SE wind will hurt ya every time. It is very certainly possible even if it doesn't seem like it. GFS has another decent Day 10 setup....should we start tracking it? ;-) YES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've seen storms start in the morning (8am) with temps around 6F then be pushing low 40s by 2PM....in Feb about 12 years ago (among other times). I posted about this yesterday. It happened a few times when I lived in the Lehigh Valley. Sometimes we'd get some snow first, or even nothing at all until it warmed up, but one time it started out as pure freezing rain at +9 around 7am, and by afternoon it was well into the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 low pressure is 4 mb's stronger / deeper ..and movement a bit slower at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 low pressure is 4 mb's stronger / deeper ..and movement a bit slower at 36 hours. We don't want a stronger more amplified solution.....unless I am reading it wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 It's much slower (than gfs) and looks like it wants to merge with the Low to the west at 51 hours. GFS has the low in PA at the same time...NAM has it in north carolina. huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 12Z NAM hangs on to the cold a little longer Monday night.....still mainly frozen for most of SE PA thru Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 yea, expect the trend to continue deeper and colder. 0z tonight should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 what is going on with the models...climate change ? it's like 10 MB's stronger (atleast) at 60 hours...compared to last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 14, 2016 Share Posted February 14, 2016 I've seen storms start in the morning (8am) with temps around 6F then be pushing low 40s by 2PM....in Feb about 12 years ago (among other times). A gale SE wind will hurt ya every time. It is very certainly possible even if it doesn't seem like it. GFS has another decent Day 10 setup....should we start tracking it? ;-) Comes down to a SE wind fetch off the gulf stream it will always warm us, all those times we hold the cold and stay below freezing some form of unexpected weak low pressure pops off the coast and keeps the winds ENE or NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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