Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 One at a time Ralph your already playing with chaos data for the first oneHa! Very true. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 I'm adding nothing currently....I just know I'm getting too old for this shiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 Ralph I mention this in the Wxsim post....but one storm at a time right? Being that this thread goes thru Wednesday the 17th I'm sort of surprised nobody mentioned the midweek snow event for us that the 18Z GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just an odd note on the 12k nam. I don't know if other sites maps show the same, but TT has the last 9 runs valid for 12z Sunday with a high pressure in the EXACT same spot near Buffalo. This isn't the meteorological equivalent of "exact same spot", it literally hasn't moved since the first run it appeared. Cycle through the previous runs and it's down right strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM GFS warmer less snow just as I step back in the ring wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM GFS warmer less snow just as I step back in the ring wtfNever fails, Murphy's Law.....now watch the Euro come East and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Just an odd note on the 12k nam. I don't know if other sites maps show the same, but TT has the last 9 runs valid for 12z Sunday with a high pressure in the EXACT same spot near Buffalo. This isn't the meteorological equivalent of "exact same spot", it literally hasn't moved since the first run it appeared. Cycle through the previous runs and it's down right strange. Looks like it's all NAM there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGem holds its course with its snowier solution! Probably did best of all models with the past norlun event (though different animal there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEMS disney maps are awesome get me near 40" for the season time to cash it in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 00z GGEM seems to want to destroy NE PA / NW NJ with some nasty ice... (Continues northeast from there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GGEMS disney maps are awesome get me near 40" for the season time to cash it inIt's been very consistent east and snowy vs consistent euro/ukmet west and rainy!!Who'll win??!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 It's been very consistent east and snowy vs consistent euro/ukmet west and rainy!! Who'll win??!! I know the CRAS model sucks but it does have its uses. For example, 99% of the time the CRAS will overdevelop slp and really wrap it up. This storm should be no exception with what appears to be an amplifying trof coming East. However, the CRAS has consistently led the camp with regards to a weaker, less amped, and snowier scenario for DC-NYC. At 0Z it really went weak and now appears like a fropa with a weak wave or two riding along it. Imo this is a big red flag. Its likely not correct verbatim, but as I stated, it has it's applications and not having an overamped system on this particular model should make the weaker scenario at least hold some water. Fwiw, the Euro looks like it came in less amped, a bit weaker, and nudged South and East with the slp. Not sure about specifics as I haven't been in any other subforums yet this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'm still in Florida and haven't really looked at the models, just wanted to add when we have an Arctic air mass like this, the low level cold is pretty stubborn to leave and is modeled very poorly leading up to the event. especially if the storm track becomes more favorable. I would not rule a pretty significant ice event out even for the city at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2016 Author Share Posted February 13, 2016 I actually think ice storms are very hard to come by....and this set up does not really look that way to me. The high is getting out of the way and only east track would keep it somewhat colder...if the rain is heavy enough it will bring down the warmer air from above the surface. I will not be surprised to see us be 40+ degrees warmer within 12 hours of precip onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'll take the 12Z nam. Light snow all during the day Monday before changing to rain after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I'll take the 12Z nam. Light snow all during the day Monday before changing to rain after dark. And ending as a period of moderate snow to boot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 about 3" total qpf up here on GFS. will probably be below freezing during the duration of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 about 3" total qpf up here on GFS. will probably be below freezing during the duration of the event. Hope you get a lot more snow than ice - good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Nam is beautiful. All frozen North of PA 6-10" snow Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 NAM just won't give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 In nam we trust? Sounds kinda crazy saying that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 hi res nam ever better, keeps 95 and nw below freezing through the whole run of 60 hrs, looks like 3-6" of snow to ice then dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Summary for today so far: ECM - a rock UKMET further west GFS further west GGEM further west NAM west first now east with lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Keep in mind half the snow on the NAM map is wave #2 change back that is quite unlikely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My fingers are crossed for the NAM... This would be wet heavy snow w/ freezing rain, right? what kind of wind is expected along with this NAM run? (Not sure how to find surface winds for a specific location) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What's the window of precip start for the region? Have a flight to LVI landing at 2:30...starting to get a little nervous. Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 My fingers are crossed for the NAM... This would be wet heavy snow w/ freezing rain, right? what kind of wind is expected along with this NAM run? (Not sure how to find surface winds for a specific location) Not a windy storm inland normal 10-20mph gusty for the coast I doubt freezing rain is an issue the cold gets scoured quick on every piece of guidance except this lone NAM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 I feel like we'll definitely flip over to plain rain I just don't think it happens as quickly as the models are currently showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 What's the window of precip start for the region? Have a flight to LVI landing at 2:30...starting to get a little nervous. Thanks in advance Every thing except the NAM says no flight worries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 GFS caves to the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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