ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Well we are with a few days of this one starting so thought we should start the thread. In looking at this storm it really has the look of the type of storms I used to see when I was a kid in the 1970's on the back end of major arctic air masses. A storm that comes up the coast and hugs or moves just inland. With a major thump of snow on the front end and snow to rain from SE to NW but a real battle ground the further N and W one travels. Should be interesting to track! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Down here it looks to be a real slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 12Z GGEM snow accum. for Monday night to earlyTuesday morning before it rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DGEX is a 2-3' Blizzard DC-NYC, CRAS is a strung out wave that remains all frozen DCA points North, the GGEM is posted above, the GFS is a brief thump to heavy rain, and the Euro is a driving rain storm with little, if any, frozen. JMA is like the GGEM and the NAVGEM like the GFS. Take your pick :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 DGEX is a 2-3' Blizzard DC-NYC, CRAS is a strung out wave that remains all frozen DCA points North, the GGEM is posted above, the GFS is a brief thump to heavy rain, and the Euro is a driving rain storm with little, if any, frozen. Take your pick :-) What about the JMA? that's the deciding factor IMO hahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What about the JMA? that's the deciding factor IMO hahahahaI edited my post and added it lol. Nah, you need to extrapolate the CRAS.....that's the most realistic outcome ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Typhoon Tip, on 12 Feb 2016 - 1:35 PM, said: perhaps this has happened ... and I am merely unaware... but, has the Euro EVER bucked trend in favor of a f snow storm ever - ahahahha. Man, I swear those ECMWF scientist have a spy network perusing the web ... looking for doe-eyed snow believers to terrorize and maim in a Schadenfreudian lube fest ... Seriously, I don't know what it is, but the "Dr No" fun parlance and mystique ... that's f real man. That's not just mystique. It's not Dr Yes for a reason - . This is how I feel sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Typhoon Tip, on 12 Feb 2016 - 1:35 PM, said: This is how I feel sometimes. When the Doctor says rain for us, it NEVER reverts to a snow solution ever that I recall in my 21 years of model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 When the Doctor says rain for us, it NEVER reverts to a snow solution ever that I recall in my 21 years of model watching. The Doc didn't do so well with the Blizzard of 2016, however that was a different scenario altogether, all though it did have it right a week prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Paul (Chescowx)....the 18Z NAM drops 3-5" roughly in your area then mixes briefly before dryslotting, finally ending as a period of ice back to snow. I'm not even sure the 18Z NAM has plain rain in the equation for you at cursory glance. Close call. edit: scratch the dryslot part....tropical tidbits must have a glitch or something...NCEP maps suggest snow->sleet->ice->brief rain->sleet/ice->snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 nice front end on the 18z nam. Wierd how it jumps the low from south Carolina at hr.81 to just north of NJ at hr.84 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 nice front end on the 18z nam. Wierd how it jumps the low from south Carolina at hr.81 to just north of NJ at hr.84 though. What's a 200mph slp track among friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs is different lol... Basically a weak coastal storm. 4" snow then some ice at ABE Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Gfs is different lol... Basically a weak coastal storm. 4" snow then some ice at ABE Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk GFS is a pretty nasty ice storm for most of SE PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2016 Author Share Posted February 12, 2016 Hi Ralph saw some of the NWS folks saying they thought this was more of a snow or rain event - not much ice....but again models all over the place. Either way Euro seems to be an odd solution any way you slice it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 will be interesting to see if the 18z gfs starts a trend to a less phased solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is a bad bad ice event for SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Phl is above freezing Marginally the whole event Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 GFS is a pretty nasty ice storm for most of SE PA. Model noob question, how can I view projected ice accumulations for GFS runs? Looking at pivotal weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Phl is above freezing Marginally the whole event Sent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Just n and w is not and is a pretty bad ice storm verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What the heck is wrong with computer models these days, after the insane inverted trough yo yo which wore me out here we go again. I had quit on this too I mean who wants to track warm rain in mid February lol Dr Clueless was a rock with the inverted trough, a rock that rolled off the cliff and crashed into the ravine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 What the heck is wrong with computer models these days, after the insane inverted trough yo yo which wore me out here we go again. I had quit on this too I mean who wants to track warm rain in mid February lol Dr Clueless was a rock with the inverted trough, a rock that rolled off the cliff and crashed into the ravine The scariest part is.....if the weaker, less-phased, colder solution is close to being correct then the CRAS in fact has led the way the last few runs. True model mayhem this winter....the NAM in it's long range nails a blizzard, the NAVGEM has been consistently overamped and not anywhere near it's usual progressive self, the Euro has been fumbling the ball in it's wheelhouse.....I mean, maybe the CRAS can actually hit it's one for the year irt early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The guidance reminds me a lot of the ice storm we had two years ago. If I remember correctly it was preceded by an Inverted Trough event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The scariest part is.....if the weaker, less-phased, colder solution is close to being correct then the CRAS in fact has led the way the last few runs. True model mayhem this winter....the NAM in it's long range nails a blizzard, the NAVGEM has been consistently overamped and not anywhere near it's usual progressive self, the Euro has been fumbling the ball in it's wheelhouse.....I mean, maybe the CRAS can actually hit it's one for the year irt early next week? It actually been enjoyable this season to watch the models. I hate when we are in the bullseye 5-6 days out and then the Euro loses the storm or its ots. The randomness of minor busts this year is better than in years previous, making it more enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The scariest part is.....if the weaker, less-phased, colder solution is close to being correct then the CRAS in fact has led the way the last few runs. True model mayhem this winter....the NAM in it's long range nails a blizzard, the NAVGEM has been consistently overamped and not anywhere near it's usual progressive self, the Euro has been fumbling the ball in it's wheelhouse.....I mean, maybe the CRAS can actually hit it's one for the year irt early next week? As if all that isn't absurd enough the DGEX has been insistent on a snowy solution for days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 As if all that isn't absurd enough the DGEX has been insistent on a snowy solution for days Not merely just snow but an all-out consistent 1-3' blizzard DC-NYC. Comical quite frankly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Not merely just snow but an all-out consistent 1-3' blizzard DC-NYC. Comical quite frankly! Hehe wouldn't that be something if it verifies!! 1 in a million! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Being that this thread goes thru Wednesday the 17th I'm sort of surprised nobody mentioned the midweek snow event for us that the 18Z GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 The guidance reminds me a lot of the ice storm we had two years ago. If I remember correctly it was preceded by an Inverted Trough event too. Correct after the Feb 3rd 4th inverted that brought 7.3" to Media amlost 850,000 without power next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2016 Share Posted February 12, 2016 Being that this thread goes thru Wednesday the 17th I'm sort of surprised nobody mentioned the midweek snow event for us that the 18Z GFS is showing. One at a time Ralph your already playing with chaos data for the first one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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